Daily Hand Quiz

Check-raise is very strong, but without a read vs big stack, I think I’d take a more conservative approach.
Feels like V may have PP or possibly just floated the flop looking for an opportunity to pop.
I voted to lead given the options, but in reality I’d likely be in c-c mode. If V bets less than 1/2 pot, I call – more than 1/2, I fold.

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samo Reply:
May 12th, 2011 at 11:12 am

Agree – I’m in the minority by opting to c-f. V range is likely TT+, 98, set, strt, flush, overs/draws. Action will shut-down if a 4th club hits, so can not rely on implied odds to make a large call OTT.

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We have some equity in the hand, but it’s only about 30% in the most common case (vs 55, say), unless villain was floating. Will our opponent fold an overpair here? Not in a $5 tourney! By betting, we fold out underpairs, but end up with the money all in with <30% equity against the rest of our opponent's range. To cancel out this loss (EV of -11,000 or so if the chips go in here), we need our opponent to fold about 1/4 of the time if we bet here. This is obviously read-dependent, but it doesn't seem that likely, and so I would check-fold (or call, if I had direct odds).

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I’m check/folding, I’m afraid. The spot grosses me out. Check/raising is obviously useless with our stack, but I was strongly considering leading (and would probably have done this in-game given the timeframe). But thinking more about it I’m changing my mind.
Sure we’d like to barrel 20k at this point and take down a nice pot. The thing is I don’t see v folding enough here.

Let’s pick this apart some more. We have no strong read on v, this would imply that he does not play a whole lot of hands. Considering the size of his stack I have to put him in the TAG corner.

What hands does he flat with pre, with three players left to act? Mostly by far: small/middle pairs and suited connectors.
Will he float if the flop missed him completely? It’s possible, but not very likely against our image on a board this wet.
He typically calls with nearly all pocket pairs, his promising combo draws and FD+overs.

Now look at the turn. Flushes, straights and sets are all well in his range and they will never fold. Some 2 pairs, that may fold on the river eventually. Some PPs that haven’t connected, a club can be enough reason to stick around.
Not only are we drastically behind a big chunk of his range, we also rarely get paid off if they call and we do river our NF.

We are severely hampered by our lack of a read, our image, and being OOP in this spot. Also, the 50k we have can last us a while, when nearly half of the table should be about to engage in shoving wars.
We’ll be folding for a bit whilst paying attention to this villain, whether or not he is eager to take the shorties on.
Then get it in against him in a better spot.

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Lead 25000, I’m putting V on small-mid pocket pair(22-TT), connectors that are most likely suited (J10,10-9,9-8,8-7), suited 1 gapper(J-9 or 10-8) or ace rag that are likely suited(A8, A7). Betting over 2/3 of the pot looks pretty strong here(looks like we have a flush draw on the flop and just got there, starting to build up a pot, possibly hitting nut straight too). V pretty much have to give up any draws and any 1 pair (he’s not getting a very good price to draw, 1 pair on this board is super vulnerable). Plus we are betting half of his remaining stack, so he’s either all in or fold. (I doubt he can go all in without a good read or at least a set in his hand). Narrow it down the hand that could really call us is (33, 77, 88, J10, 89 possibly), so it’s less than 1/3 of his possible hand. If he does push all in, we still have 9 outs to make a call.

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samo Reply:
May 12th, 2011 at 1:33 pm

The V has the big stack, we have the 50k.

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Robert Reply:
May 12th, 2011 at 7:22 pm

Ops, then I’ll check call/ lead 50/50 to mix up my play here. In this situation I might play it safer with a shorter stack (c/c).

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c/f. The 9c hit his range very hard. Although we’re readless, assume a normal 5$ player’s reactions. That means two things: (1) very likely he doesn’t really realize us being aggressive, so our percived range is stronger, (2) he never folds overpairs, never folds pair + draws even if we shove.
What could he have on the flop?
- Plain overs (eg: AQ). Any bet will chase him away. Too bad that half-decent 5$ players won’t float much esp. against an UTG raise. A good spot to chase away overs, but these are a very small part of their range.
- PPs like 22, 44, 55, 66: Most often they fold on the flop. We can chase these away often, but again, this is a very small part of their turn range.
- PPs 77+: they never fold.
- FDs: got there, never fold.
- SDs: either got there, our improved to TP + SD. Never fold.

C/R might work against some of his range but eff. stacks are too shallow for that. We cannot make him fold most of his range evn if we’re allin. C/F is best.

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really wish there was option d) check call… i would lead rather than check raise or check fold.
argument can always be made for every option. Feels like your opponent either has a pocket pair ie 10/10 or below i would assume that they would 3 bet jj+ pre flop even to a utg raise.
otherwise your opponent if floating to see if you check and take the lead in the pot. You are out of position which makes it tough to play the hand well.
i would lead for value out of the 3 options
18k or so. Give v something to think about and leave yourself with just enough to reavaluate of the river. You still have a draw to the nuts and chakc hand initiative to villain.
i would probs check call tbh but its not an option..
check raise is an option too, check jamming looks extremely strong and could force v to fold big hands.

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