Daily Hand Quiz

I think we’ll have to lay this down.
Villain’s taken a particularly strong line on this draw-heavy board. Assuming he has picked up on our image, he seems to like his hand a lot.

He may be protecting an overpair, or sitting on a draw of his own – which figures to be better than ours. A lot of AdXd’s are in his range, and when he’s even somewhat loose he could have a gutshot to go with it (A4 and A5)

We can’t call because of bad pot odds and lack of implied odds; if no diamond rivers, we will have to fold to a shove, and if one does come he should only get his stack in with a better flush. Well, possibly with an unlikely set of tens.

Shoving here to represent a set of our own is a possibility, the line we’ve taken sort of checks out. The problem there is that we’re handing out juicy pot odds and are readless, so we can’t rely all that much on FE, and there’s a good chance our outs are counterfeited… it’s too icky.

Fold, it’s early, we’ll find better spots.

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D Reply:
April 18th, 2011 at 12:21 pm

+1

Villian is going to shove here on the river with any set or even 2 pair (given he has good odds), plus he could have us completely dominated (Ax of diamonds). And I’m gonna hate the river such as 10 or 2 of diamonds. Give up now rather than making a tough decision later.

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Voted to fold. There’s nothing we’re ahead of now and I’m not convinced our overs are clean outs, so basically we’re just drawing to the flush.

We definitely don’t have pot odds and I can’t see calling for 1/3 of my stack in this spot. I’d like to go back and just flat the flop bet for pot control. Most likely we’d have a more palatable bet to call here to see the river.

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Fold, I don’t see how V could have worse hand here, and I don’t believe a bluffer could call a raise on the flop here then leads the turn. Wait for a better spot since we still have a decent stack to work with (blinds are only 25/50).

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On that board, the Hero’s raise usually indicates draw. I think a set may shoulder some risk, hoping to fade the turn where they will spring into action. I would have just called OTF.

As played, I’d fold. If we had a read on the V and believed they could not fold a big pair, it would be a close decision as the implied odds are there, 1350 to gain (3814+2438). I don’t think the nut FD leads here, but rather check-calls to build the pot further.

Too early and no read – fold.

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C it, a diamond wins. K or Q should win, take a chance you only live oNce, you’re getting 2 to 1 on 15 outs.

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Pirate21 Reply:
April 19th, 2011 at 8:16 am

Think this through a little more….

Actually, it’s more like 2.8-1.
If we assume our 15 outs are all clean (I’m not convinced of that), we hit 1 in 3.1 times. It’s close but the pot odds are not there.
The math only works here if we believe we get paid off when we hit.
If we call now, our line screams flush draw so we likely don’t get called when it hits (and when we do, it’s often by a better flush).

So, basically we’re counting on being good and getting paid with a naked K or Q? We hit those ~ 1 in 8 times.
Of those times, how often are we sure our one pair is good?
And…. if we are good, V has no better than JJ – you think he’s going to pay us off very often? If so, I’d suggest he’s a fish and we can wait for a better spot to get his chips.

Lastly, consider what happens the 2/3 of the time that we don’t hit. We have less than 1/2 the stack of 4 other players at the table – giving us very little room to manuever in future hands.

Fold now and find a better spot to put your chips to use.

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T Reply:
April 19th, 2011 at 11:18 am

*YARRRs in agreement*

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Jeff Reply:
April 20th, 2011 at 7:58 pm

Great post

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if V has JJ’s,99′s,88′s,77′s,55′s 44′s, I vote call. AA,KK,QQ,10′s,66,33,22, I vote fold. I believe we have no business whatsoever raising on the flop, but since we did, V’s response is a foregone conclusion another diamond wins this hand for us. V has a hand but not air(AK,AQ) but which pair?
V has us covered. If we call we’re down to 2300, and playing this crappily, we probably will never settle down and play a 6 hour game correctly!
1350 to call a pot of 3814…and 7-9 diamond outs, the pot odds aren’t there! V bets us out!!

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Hero owned himself by raising the flop. Villain is never bluffing and hero doesn’t get the odds to call.

So fold.

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