Daily Hand Quiz

we have a pair

we have an M of 2.3

we have tight image

we are about to have big blind

we shove

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blue Reply:
March 3rd, 2011 at 1:35 am

*m is actually 2.6ish

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Waste_Of_Paint Reply:
March 3rd, 2011 at 1:58 am

+1

It’s unlikely we can fold our way into the money so yes, this has to be a jam while we still have some fold equity.

Not so sure if I’d jam A6o though… thoughts on that?

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blue Reply:
March 3rd, 2011 at 7:55 am

im still shoving A6o for the same reasons as above.

this is in fact super close to shoving ATC

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Well we should be shoving ATC here – actually we should have a couple of orbits ago. Our hand is actually on the high end of our range, but of course that’s not saying much.
This is our very last chance to apply what FE is left to a ~5BB stack, next hand we are the big blind and all will be lost.

Hopefully our nittiness can limit the field to two or three opponents. If we somehow emerge victorious, we vow to never let it come to this again.

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33 or A6o are both “shovable”. M<3 and blinds on the horizon make this an easy decision.

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I feel like this is a huge problem for a lot of “newer” mtt players. They see a 50% ROI on the horizon and want to snug up to AK/QQ+ till the bubble bursts and then this happens. All of a sudden, the blinds and ante’s have ravaged any real chance of making a deep run and were left with HOPING to make our money back. While i agree to the point that “We should have never let it get to this,” maybe it was honestly not our fault. Having bleh cards in EP/MP and having signifigant action before us when in LP/Blinds will crush any real chance of making a play at 1 orbit’s worth of chips.

At this point, i think i literally fold out. Every single person is watching this bubble like a hawk before they make their next decision and anybody in their right mind at this table is going to take a shot against you. If they are competant players, you are getting a bunch of callers and a check down 90% of the time just to burst the bubble.

Fold and pray for a better spot or someone catches a bad beat on another table.

Editorial: Im not a winning MTT player but i have been studying up and trying to put theory into my analysis lately. Thinking good and playing good are 2 different things and when able to sit back and have 0 pressure on you, you will make much better decisions.

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T Reply:
March 3rd, 2011 at 9:21 am

That’s why we need to watch our M. We should start looking for open shoves once it drops below ten. Especially when we are this noticeably short. See we were already in a similar spot the last time we were utg. Shortstacked with a lousy hand. Thedifference being that our shove would have been bigger, both in comparison to the blinds and to the stacks. We would have been charging several players a quarter or more of their stack and they would be more reluctant to call with marginal hands.
Our 33 here stands less of a chance than our 62o did an orbit ago, simply from losing fold equity. But I reckon the chance 33 holds up against five players is still greater than us receiving AK or QQ+ over the next ten hands…

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Pirate21 Reply:
March 3rd, 2011 at 5:50 pm

So… I agree with almost everything you say… the mistake is already made in letting ourselves get blinded down to this spot. The problem in front of us now is how to dig our way out. I just don’t see the UTG shove with a micro-pair and no FE as the optimum play.
Here’s my logic:
- I’m not waiting for a top 1% hand. Just something that has a reasonable expectation of winning vs. multiple callers (even something like J-8 would feel better to me). Ax, any two broadway cards, suited (or non-suited) connectors or 1-gappers, even a lot of Kx or Qx hands… all have a better chance of holding up against multiple callers (which I’m convinced we’ll have).
- I don’t like the UTG shove. We have zero information on what others think of their hands. BB would be a perfect spot – see what everyone does before we have to act, or maybe someone shoves in EP and we can take our chances heads up.

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Pirate21 Reply:
March 3rd, 2011 at 11:58 pm

To test my theory, I ran this on Pokerstove.

33 vs. random hands:
2-handed 54%
3-handed 34%
4-handed 25%

A6o/s vs. random hands:
2-handed 58%
3-handed 40%
4-handed 31%

J8o/s vs. random hands:
2-handed 52%
3-handed 40%
4-handed 34%

K3s vs. random hands:
2-handed 54%
3-handed 38%
4-handed 29%

Pirate21 Reply:
March 3rd, 2011 at 9:30 am

I agree with this analysis.
I don’t think we have any real FE and anybody who calls will have no worse than two overs. I think it’s likely we get at least 2-3 callers trying to pick off a short stack and get on with things – meaning we’re probably dodging at least 1/3 of the deck.

I know we’re desperately short here, but that doesn’t mean we give up. I’d prefer to take my chances with a better drawing hand rather than hope the board bricks for several players (or we hit a miracle 2-outer).

I probably still fold A6, but i’d give it some thought. I’d gladly shove either of those hands if we had between $18-30K.

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Morat Reply:
March 3rd, 2011 at 1:01 pm

Well, my first instinct was fold as well, as there’s no need to do anything when there’re only two players to go. But, since I realized the complete field is 32 players, the picture changed considerably. We can fold 18 more hands if we decide to fold to death. Who the hell would risk anything during that 18 hands knowing we’re in a much worse shape?
We have a pair. We can get lucky. Maybe we will have only one caller or – who knows – no caller at all. That mass call/check down doesn’t work as often that you’d expect, actually it’s only ‘B’ and ‘D’ who would call us light esp. because of the bubble.
One more reason to shove: if you get AK like 12 hands later, and you even manage to double up (takes some luck to get both), you only manage to get back into the same shoes you’re in right now.

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Easiest shove of my life. Same with A6 for all the reasons stated in other posts. If your goal is to min cash, then by all means, just roll over and die. Chances are though – you won’t even make it if you fold every hand. I say grow some balls and take a shot at a deeper run.

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Shove! What the hell are you waiting for?

I don’t know how I feel about A6. But a pair? I’m shoving before the button gets their second card.

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Waste_Of_Paint Reply:
March 3rd, 2011 at 3:37 pm

“I’m shoving before the button gets their second card”

Awesome

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Shove and pray that someone (or two) calls. Realistically the only way to make a proper run in this tournament now is to triple up (at a minimum), look at the avg stack size in comparision to ours! Even if you just want to make it past the bubble you have to take a shot at it with this hand.

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Our goal has never changed. We are going to finish this tournament as high as possible! We are <1/8 the average stack. We waited 2 orbits for a pair of 3′s in early position??? Fortunately there is a player at another table with less chips than us (p32), and p30 also bubbling. The wiser, more experienced players have spoken, we need to take a stand earlier in order to finish in a higher position.
Here’s what we do:
(without slowing down the game, or changing the pace drastically) look to the waitress and order another beer while folding! What’s the sudden hurry?
We’re still ready to shove!! We need a hand that plays better in a multi-pot situation , KJ, KQ, big connectors, and suited connectors. A6 is a shove middle and late positions, let ‘em play, we can last 2 more orbits!

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Pirate21 Reply:
March 3rd, 2011 at 11:43 pm

I’ll drink to that – CHEERS!

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Having lost the ability to win the tournament I now switch to just cash mode. I am gonna wait for someone else to bust or a better spot to get it in. I have lost hundreds of cashing opportunities or satellite seats by shoving with this type of hand, now I play to cash first, then when the bubble breaks I play to win. I feel much better when I cash or win a seat then when I shove a dominated pair or A6os from early position – never again. Cashing builds confidence & a better ROI.

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