Daily Hand Quiz

Voted to lead here, though I think a reasonable argument could be made for any of the three options.
My biggest problem with either c/c or c/r is that if the turn hits our one of our draws, it will be easier for Vs to figure us out – and therefore more difficult for us to get paid off.
Ultimately, I think the best approach in this spot is to mix between the three options to make it more difficult on our opponents.

[Reply]

I understand why some people would want to lead out here, but I’m c/c for sure. I want to see more cards for cheap. If someone has a King than they are probably betting or raising our bet if we do lead out. I don’t want to build a huge pot with multiple players out of position if I don’t have to. I’m waiting for the goods and then betting accordingly if I hit.

[Reply]

Waste_Of_Paint Reply:
February 22nd, 2011 at 11:22 am

But if someone does have a king, isn’t it +ev to build as big a pot as possible here, seeing as we’re a favourite to win the hand?

[Reply]

Pirate21 Reply:
February 22nd, 2011 at 11:29 am

Indeed – and also nice to know that we have a dancing partner….

[Reply]

Nelson Reply:
February 22nd, 2011 at 11:31 am

Oh I see your point, totally. Betting on the come as they say. I can’t fault it at all. I guess I’m just thinking about what we would do if we lead for say 16-18, and then someone makes it about 40 more or so. Obviously we probably call – but now what if we whiff the turn? Any lead at this point will have to be a substantial amount. What is the other option…check…fold?

[Reply]

Pirate21 Reply:
February 22nd, 2011 at 12:34 pm

It’s not just betting on the come. In this case, we are statistically a favorite to win the hand even if our opponent has 2-pr or a set (the worst thing possible for us is if someone has a better FD, but I’ll take my chances). In fact, I would be ecstatic for our opponent to raise as it increases our implied odds when we hit.
I agree that under normal circumstances, drawing hands are usually better played for pot control. But when you flop an OESFD, that changes the dynamic significantly.

Waste_Of_Paint Reply:
February 22nd, 2011 at 4:46 pm

That’s not actually quite right… we’re a slight dog against a set (57/43). But still, I’ll take my chances. I would also be pleased to get a raise, and I think I’d 3bet, not flat, adding fold equity to our chances of winning the hand. Given the stack sizes of the two villains, if we bet the pot and one of them makes it 60 or so, I’m shoving.

I’d go with leading out here, sure you are first to act but with our tight image most players would assume we have a King and that we are protecting our hand. That should fold out a few hands that are currently ahead of us and if our draws don’t make it, it lets us represent the Kings all the way to the end.

If we check-call here then our hand looks exactly like what it is – a draw. If we make it with the next card then we aren’t going to get paid off by anything we don’t beat. Only something like 9d will make us money in that situation. And there is the risk that everyone checks.

A check-raise seems a little out of OTT here (but worth considering) and doesn’t really fit with many hands. I’m always wary of telling an inconsistant story with my hand, unless of course I have the nuts and want people to think I’m bluffing.

You could go with any of the three options I think but leading out with a pot sized bet seems as good as any.

[Reply]

I’d lead for $20 levering Hero’s tight image, representing a big hand (e.g. a set or 2-pr) while obviously on a monster draw.

CR seems to shout that we are drawing and may put us on tough decision vs. an AK RR.

CC may also lean toward the draw part of our range, and thus reduce future action if the turn is a hit.

[Reply]

I vote check-raise.

This is a hand that potentially could make a huge amount of money for us. My worry about leading out is that if opponents have nothing, we take down a small pot and miss the chance to get even a c-bet out of Player B.

If we check, I have to believe Player B c-bets this in almost all cases.

I’m willing to c/r and then either call a shove or 4-bet to get it all in on the flop, if someone is in a frisky mood. It’s fine by me if Villain thinks we’re c/r-ing with an ordinary flush draw (in which case his top pair would be favored.)

If Villain doesn’t respect our c/r, that’s marvelous. We’re on such a spectacularly good draw that we’re actually favored vs. almost anything that villains could be playing.

For example, if we’re up against AKo or KQo, we’re 56% to win this. He’s 44%. Bring it on.

[Reply]

Actually, we are about 51-55% to win against a single pair and we are slight dogs to both 2pr, set – and a better FD! That means 3 things to me:
1) We wont fold like ever, so try to bring the most possible money into the pot right on the flop.
2) The strength of our draw decreases steeply on a blank turn which leads to (1) push as much money into the pot as possible ON THE FLOP;
3) Though we are the favourites, WE DOESN’T NECCESSARILY WANT ANYONE TO COME ALONG. It’s better to take this pot 100% of the time than to put all the money in and win like 54% of the time… If you don’t believe do the math.

Yes we’re best right now which is beutiful to see but this situation is very different from having top set or better.
Worst possible scenario IMO: leading out, have multiple callers and the turn blanks – now what? We’ve just butchered a superb hand.

Cliffnotes:
C/R big. Maximize FE / let the most possible money go in on the flop. Also the best way to price out better FDs. Threat of c/r-ing: getting a free card for our draw. Not that bad IMO.

[Reply]

T Reply:
February 23rd, 2011 at 7:14 am

Quite right, and any non-diamond face card on the turn is quite bad for us as well.

[Reply]

samo Reply:
February 23rd, 2011 at 3:29 pm

Being an ever-so slight fav for entire stack obviously places us in a huge variance situation. Math is EV+ in most cases, but with a 3x open-raise 6-handed, I think we are beating most of the V range. A donk bet of $20 may narrow the variance Leading may still take it down, as we represent a strong story-line to go with tight image.

If we hit the draw on the turn, we have deceived the caller(s) and will likely get paid. If we miss, still have the chance to get away.

I follow the reasoning, just hate to get into large “coin-flip” pots.

[Reply]

I like a check/raise. It maximizes fold equity and of course if we get taken on we have many outs.
Check/call I like the least because it is likely that we are charged again for the river card if we don’t get there on the turn.
A lead is ok against someone who doesn’t c-bet often, but donking a flop tends to provoke more action than we want at this point.

[Reply]

T Reply:
February 23rd, 2011 at 7:11 am

I forgot to mention: c/r also serves to infuriate the initial raiser, hopefully into shoving. HU against his range we are at our strongest.

[Reply]

best move is to lead out, it would be better to win the pot on the flop than to lose on the turn or river! Only the 4d gives you the nuts!! You make your flush less than 25% of the time and you’ve got the low end on the straight. I’ve won hands like this with K2s K9s or A7s, the point being, no one’s put anything substantial in the pot to weed out the marginal trash hands!

[Reply]

Waste_Of_Paint Reply:
February 24th, 2011 at 1:06 am

Wrong… any 4 gives us the nuts

[Reply]

Great question. I like check-raise for two reason:

1) It looks strong and it will most likely get you heads up against a made pair.
2) It will build a nice pot for if you hit your hand.

Even if the villain reshoves on us by then you’ll have check raised enough to commit yourself with a monster draw.

[Reply]

this no monster draw, it’s a good way to lose your ass against someone with enough balls to bet/call in the big blind with 9 10 suited, or A-X. Even a moron who likes to slow play their AK or AA is likely to obliterate you on a shove!

[Reply]

Major Dude Reply:
February 24th, 2011 at 3:17 pm

Dude! — all that beer is messing up your judgment. Here’s how the odds actually sort out, courtesy of twodimes.net

1. We’re about 56/44 ahead of most T9 hands. (That includes T9h; T9s; T9c and T9o.) Yes, T9d would be trouble. But so would an asteroid arriving from outer space and demolishing our house. The BB has done nothing to define his hand. Given the 1 in 1,081 chance that he’s got a better OESD, let’s gamble and play on.

2. We’re about 63/37 ahead of Ax. See previous posts.

3. We’re 56/44 ahead of AK. See previous posts.

4. We’re 56/44 ahead of AA if he doesn’t have the Ad, and still 53/47 ahead if he does. See previous posts. Amazing but true.

We’ve got a draw that’s so staggeringly, monstrously powerful that it deserves its own section in the Book of Revelations. Be brave! Make the most of it.

[Reply]

T Reply:
February 24th, 2011 at 6:48 pm

Any major dude will tell you!

[Reply]

Anonymous Reply:
February 24th, 2011 at 8:23 pm

Lol. You didn’t calculate odds bs 2p,sets and better flush draws… The odds aren’t as one sided as you claim.

[Reply]

bottom line 5,6s is a crappy drawing hand, even when you turn an OESFD you’re not doing anything phenomenal. When you check (offer a free card) to some trash hand like K-9s, A-Xs, 9-10 offsuit, they’ll oblige in taking your entire stack when the straight or flush hits! Your just beat half the time anyway. The best reason to play 56s is to bet with it, bluff with it, because even if you make a flush or straight it’s only 6high! beerme

[Reply]

Waste_Of_Paint Reply:
February 23rd, 2011 at 11:50 pm

Lol

[Reply]

I’m leading out because I’m not risking it being checked around and not liking the turn.

[Reply]

this isn’t the beer talking tonight, i’ll be 100% honest, i have never lost a hand to 56s, i mean ever! I can think of at least 3 times i have beaten 56s in tourneys and cash games vacationing in Vegas. I’ve won with K2s, AA, and the last time, i beat a Sheila from Australia, sipping merlot, for her entire stack with 69s. My 69 of spades against her 56 hearts, flop was 7h8hQc. I made my straight on the turn and she smooth called. She hit her straight on the river and i moved all in.
It takes 7 cards to make a hand, a personality to bet, but to follow statistics into a practical “coin flip” situation is illusory.
Who says you’ll be heads up? Who says your playing against top pair? For the top puzzle, how do you know anyone has a King?
Better hope you have enough change left in your front pocket to buy a 24oz Beck’s because following that draw is a loser baby!

[Reply]

Major Dude Reply:
February 25th, 2011 at 5:57 pm

Ah, Brett, you’ve got more personality than the entire cast of the Simpsons. It’s always good to hear from you.

Anyone who busts out a Merlot sipper is a friend of mine. But the way you described your Vegas hand, you don’t have a straight on the turn. No card in the deck could do it. Anyway, if she was messed up on Merlot and folded the winning hand to you, well done.

I’m glad you’ve won against 56s three times. Cards remember this sort of thing. It gets hard-wired into all decks, world-wide. Vegas, Macau, PokerStars; Herbie’s home game; they all know. You’ve got a stone-cold lock for at least the next 30 years. The rest of us don’t, so we gotta spend some time sizing up the odds.

As for this actual quiz, we don’t know what anyone has. But the point of the analysis was: it matters a whole lot less than one might think. We’re ahead against the vast, vast majority of any Villain’s range. A massive c/r is the best way to exploit that. We get some more of Villain’s money if he folds, and he’s almost certainly behind if he calls.

Your line of leading out the flop lets the preflop raiser get away from a marginal hand, free of charge. We shouldn’t make it easy for him. Give him more of a chance to make a mistake.

[Reply]

Play it like a set and don’t stop betting.

[Reply]

Y’all OK Major Dudes out there, i have been known to rant after a daily dose… while this hand is not a conundrum for me, it does set off the car alarm! It’s a decent situation… yet i wouldn’t hand over the car keys to one who can wreck my stack. I would much prefer J9s or a longer vacation to test losing 44 times out of a hundred with it!

[Reply]