Considering a turn bluff, NL Cash

Game type: NL cash, 6 max
Your image: TAG
Misc notes: Short stack has raised quite often preflop
Your hand: 9♥8♥

The setup: Preflop, Player A raises to $8. You decide to call with your suited connectors, Player C folds and the blinds both call, putting $32 in the middle. The flop comes all diamonds:

5♦7♦9♦

… and the blinds both check. Player A bets light at $12, and you decide to see if you can’t take it down with your pair. You raise to $44, the blinds fold and Player A flat calls. The turn isn’t what you hoped for:

5♦7♦9♦A♦

… and Player A checks to you. There’s a little over $100 in the middle, and that’s right about what Player A has remaining behind. What’s your play?

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6 COMMENTS (Jump to comment form)

Dan

I think villains check on the turn is really tricky here, he has quite a wide range which includes Ax J10+ and 55+ based on raising pre-flop and an array of suited connectors of which diamonds are obviously a problem.
Hopefully it will be obvious to the villain that your turn bet will either be a made hand i.e. the flush, or a total bluff. I think I would make a value bet of say 2/3 the pot to represent the flush and fold to a raise.

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Nelson

I check and then check/fold any river. There is almost nothing we are ahead of here. No need to get spewy in this very very marginal situation. The flat call was scary enough, now the tricky check with 4 diamonds and an Ace on board – in my mind I’m already done with this hand. If I got to showdown without investing another cent I’d be happy and if I was good with my pair of nines I’d be very surprised.

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Rowdy

Surely if had a good hand on the flop he shoves onced reraised? He knows he’ll get called as he has harldy any cash behind and he’ll want to protect from the diamond. If he didn’t have a good hand on the flop he almost certainly folds to your reraise – UNLESS he has a diamond (or two). GIVE UP!

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Marty

Why do I have to decide between Raise and Give up?

I might want to play this as check then raise if checked to on river. I guess I should justify:

1 – His stack ~ pot… so IF I had Kd raising here betting might well not be highest EV move (since there is not so much need to pot build)
2 – His call on flop lead me to believe he had a decent pair (generally beating us) or a big diamond draw (beating us now)… I’d also expect him to bet the big diamond on the river (so we could fold)… and check the pair… I think I would bet to here if checked pretty often because I think out raise on the flop followed by a check could easily be interpreted as a big Diamond.

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Waste_Of_Paint Reply:
February 8th, 2011 at 12:06 pm

Like this analysis dude… you’re right, we really have no idea if he has a big diamond or not, but he’ll sure as hell not check it again on the river if he does. Check for information and represent the nuts at the same time.

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Pirate21 Reply:
February 8th, 2011 at 12:27 pm

Agree with this – I see no reason to bet right now.
Any realistic bet would commit V to the pot so betting now is no better than waiting for the river (if he’s going to fold now, he’ll usually fold the river too). If he checks the river, we can fire and expect a fold most of the time. If he leads the river, we have the most information possible to make our decision (i’d fold to a river bet).

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