
Game type: $200 NL
Your image: You are fairly new to the table
Misc notes: Player B seems to be pretty solid
Your hand: K♥K♣
The Setup: You’ve only been at the table for about 15 minutes, but you caught a flush a few hands back and doubled up. Player B was a big stack when you got there and appears to be pretty solid. Both of you have double stacks now. Player B opens the pot for $6 and the table folds around to you in the SB with KK. You raise it to $20 and Player B calls. The flop brings:
2♣K♠9♠
You lead out for the size of the pot and Player B calls. The turn is:
4♦
You pot it again. Player B pauses for a bit, but then calls. The river pairs the board:
4♣
There is $378 in the pot, you have $192 left and are covered by Player B. What’s your play?
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put it all in there. if he folds a spade draw, then he made all kinds of mistakes drawing at a bad price, and drawing with what are technically zero implied odds with our stack size. if he calls with TT, JJ, then he got taken to value town. if he folds TT, JJ, then we still got 2 very solid streets of value. if he has AK or KQ, that is just plain gross. I cannot see him having anything else at showdown here other than these 4 possibilities.
there are way too many hands he could be holding that he would check behind just hoping that they are good at show down. there are almost zero hands he could be holding that he would bluff all in on the river let along make it to the river, since we fired hard 3 times. these considerations force us to put it all in.
checking also looks ridiculous, because why would we 3 bet, fire huge 2 times, and then just give up on the river, when absolutely nothing got there, and there’s only 1 likely card on the board in our 3 bet range. he knows we weren’t betting a draw that heavy. so a check would probably be taken as pretty strong. arrr-in
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Holding the 2nd nuts 200 BB deep with half pot bet left in our stack it is our duty to ship it in there. By the way, We shouldn’t worry about the nuts obv.
He must be strong to call all the way down, my best guess (hope?) is a set lower than ours. Offer him 3:1 and he’ll make the final call more often than not, check to him and you’ll see him check back mediocre hands (AA, AK) way too often to be profitable.
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This is an easy AI – there is no hand here that would make a river bet but not call your bet so why risk losing the extra value. It stated that villain is “pretty solid” so looking at the stack sizes and betting pattern he certainly can’t expect to be able to bet a missed flush and push you off any kind of hand.
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AI as you have nothing to lose. Only a very strong hand (set or 2-pr) will lead, so push and try to max value. At 3-1 AK will likely call.
Checking loses value for reason above. Additionally, our line has been strong, so doubtful the V will try and bluff us out, thinking we are at a minimum in c-c mode.
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Nice to see a quiz in which hero hasn’t made any mistakes.
We’ve set up a river shove perfectly here, so why get tricky and check now? Ship it.
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Pretty easy shove.
V seems to have been either drawing or trying to get to the river as cheap as possible. If we check, there is no reason to believe he will bet in either case.
On the other hand, if we bet (only viable bet is AI) he can look at almost 3:1 as a decent price to see if 99-QQ or Ax is good.
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Ship the boat!
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If we change this to a full PSB left behind because of smaller bets on the flop and turn, does that change it for anyone? I think for a thinking player you have respect for if it’s possible for him to get here with a draw checking makes some sense.
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