Daily Hand Quiz

I think this is the kind of spot where a lot of players miss out on value by checking behind. This looks like a great spot for a thin value bet to me.

I’m putting villain on a range of weaker tens, lower pairs and whiffed draws. Sometimes you’ll see a weak queen show up, but I’d expect top pair to bet the flop most of the time. I would expect 2 pair or better to lead the river.

I’m firing 80-100 and folding to a raise.

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this is a pretty straightforward value bet situation. the 6 didnt make a difference, and i dont think a queen was checking flop and check-calling turn. i suppose we could be getting slow played, but checking 3 times? and after we bet the turn flatting and then checking again? thats some REALLY slow playin if its a slow play. this looks a lot more to me like 2nd or third pair, maybe picked up some kind of draw that didnt get there.

unless we got really unlucky and he made a weird 2 pair like 10/6, we’ve got the best of it. i definitely dont think hes got anything good enough to raise here, so the worst case scenario is we lose a few more chips to a weak queen or weird 2 pair. id rather not leave value on the table the majority of the time when we’re ahead though. im betting around 100.

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This is one of those scenarios that I think is a leak in my game. 2 replies so far and both say bet. My thought would be check. Given that we have position what is the point of betting here? Your opponent has shown little interest in the pot. You made a play for it on the turn and the SB called. It’s early so I doubt there’s a significant read as to why? He then checks the river. So, what hand will call you that you beat? I don’t see where the river bet makes $$.

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general johnson jameson Reply:
January 19th, 2011 at 11:09 am

Don’t think that you’re wrong, cuz what you’ve said is right. This looks like a great thin value bet spot, but the reality is that its not, cuz there is absolutely no chance we will get called by a 7,6 or 4 here. We bet the 10, and now we bet the 10 again, there is no way those hands will stay, even though they may have peeled one on the turn for a cheap price (who wouldn’t).

Also, our story looks exactly like 89. Limp, check flop, underbet our open ender, the 6 gets there, now we value bet. Anyone paying attention will consider this, as its very easy to see.

It is a value bet spot, but realistically its only a value bet spot against someone who has like JT, KT, and those are so few hands it doesn’t really matter. We may as well be trying to value bet against Ace high here. What I felt was to do something out of line, that will make lesser hands confused, and possibly dupe them into calling, like over betting.

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Nelson Reply:
January 19th, 2011 at 11:31 am

Very insightful General. I agree for the most part – except for when you don’t think someone will call with a 7,6, or 4. If there was 160 in the pot and the positions were reversed – say we had a 7,6 or 4, and we check to the villain and he bets 20 or 30 chips into a pot of 160, then I’m pretty damn certain A LOT of people would call with a 7,6, or 4. I do like your whole mind game theory though with the overbet stuff – some interesting meta-game reasoning for sure!

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general johnson jameson Reply:
January 19th, 2011 at 12:20 pm

No one bets 20 into 160 though. So that isn’t really reasonable. Like I said in my other post, unless someone bets $5, a 7 6 or 4 are not going to call.

In fact, if the roles were reversed, and someone dared to bet 30 into 160, I’d read it as pathetic weakness, and I’d re-raise him into oblivion. Most players who like to attack weakness regardless of hand, would check/raise that guy, instead of calling with their 4, because the same logic applies, the 4 isn’t beating anything. So why would it be more inclined to call over 30 instead of 80? They wouldn’t. So unless the person is a complete idiot fish, they wont call. And if they do, well big woop, you scored 1 extra BB.

But if he only value bet, like 80 into the 160, the 7 6 or 4 would fold every time, like I said they would. By betting 20 or 30, you’re making yourself available as weak, and players like me will pounce on that, and guess what? You’ll have to fold your ten, because now the ten is no longer beating anything but a bluff, and now the roles are reversed, and a person with a ten cannot call there, and you’d have to fold.

That’s why you don’t bet 30 into 160. You’ll still lose.

An image of “a little loose” isn’t enough for me to look a guy up with 3rd or 4th pair, regardless of price. Remember that sometimes in tournaments, its better to go for the throat at the risk of nothing. Getting an extra guaranteed 60 out of this guy isn’t going to matter. The blinds will go up shortly, and that 60 will equate to 1 extra rotation. Big deal. I’d rather take the chance at getting 220 more or so out of the guy instead of a piddly extra BB. If we really want to maximize our chance at getting a call out of one of those shitty 7 6 4 hands, it isn’t by doing it with a bet of 30, its by doing it with a bet of like 230.

John Kugelman Reply:
January 19th, 2011 at 2:48 pm

“You’ll have to fold your ten, because now the ten is no longer beating anything but a bluff, and now the roles are reversed, and a person with a ten cannot call there, and you’d have to fold.”

Limping the SB, checking the flop, check/calling the turn, and then check/raising a blank river reps nothing except bluffs. You cannot have a strong hand with that line. A good player with a ten can definitely bet/call the river.

I think the majority of the time, we bet and V folds, but there’s a good chance we get called by smaller pairs or something like T9-TK. Occasionally a weak Q may show up – so be it.
I’d bet around 1/2 pot.

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I’m with the value town crowd, however, if the villain really has nothing or close to it with 2nd or 3rd pair etc., then I think any more than half the pot bet will scare them away. I’m even inclined to bet less – maybe about 60 or 70. Then they might even look us up with King high or something just to see what we’re up to.

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EZ bet, EZ game. We’ll get called by worse tens, for one.

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Well the title gives it away pretty much. It’s a value spot, so we value bet (90-120).
Since we played the hand weakly (no raise pf, undersized turn bet) we’re at the high end of our range. Our image adds pure bluffs to our range as well, increasing the chance that v calls with worse even more.

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Unless your bet is like $5, I dont think a 4 or 7 will call here at all against any value bet giving like 2:1 or even 3:1. There is no way those hands will call. So then what?

Unless the SB is a passive moron, who will check a set all the way to the end thinking he is brilliant slow playing, these situations are exactly where I employ overbets. Here’s why: I am absolutely positive I am ahead, but there is no reason to think a pair of 4s will call. Adding some confusion to the mix makes people make bad decisions. Overbets confuse people.

Say we bet 60-70. There is zero chance we get called by the 4 or 6, a small chance the 7 does, and most tens will, and all Q will. A very small chance A high will.

If we overbet, lets say like 210. There is an increased chance all of those hands will make a call. And since we are positive there is no Q here, (at least not a strong one, most likely Q with no kicker), we should do what is most likely to get calls from all of the range. Overbets confuse people, and make people paranoid, and cause them to make calls they otherwise never wouldn’t if we value bet this for half pot.

Also: if we over bet this, and he calls with a 7, the table will know we are capable of overbetting for value, which will let us use it as a bluff later on if we need be. If we overbet, and he folds, the table will think we were bluffing, which will allow us to do this again when we are strong, and even MORE likely to get called by weaker holdings. No matter the result, we benefit. The key here, is that we know we have the best hand, which allows us to make this play. If I had a shred of doubt, I wouldn’t do this at all for even a second, it only benefits us when we are positive there isn’t a Q here, and i’m 90% sure and that’s high enough for me.

Properly applied overbets are a huge tool. Value betting here in the hopes of netting a piddly extra 60$, vs. the long term benefits we will gain by overbetting here regardless of result, will total way beyond $70.

Remember, the key in this spot is we know we have the best hand. If we had Jack high and tried this against a guy who was showing he had a Q, its not gonna work.

I overbet, around 210. Increase the chances we get a call from the hands that theres no way they’d call a 2:1. Even if they fold we longterm benefit, even though it was likely they were folding to the 2:1 anyway.

Wait until the day you get a player to put 5,000 chips into a pot of 2,000 on the river with nothing but a pair of 7s, against your pocket QQ. Never ignore the overbet for value move.

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