Daily Hand Quiz

this looks like a fold. first of all, do we have top 2 like the text says? if our hand is a/k and the river is a q, that doesnt make top 2. so im going to assume we have only top pair top kicker. this hand has gotten so large with 3 players in that its really hard to believe we’re still good here. even if we convince ourself that the button was taking a stab at the river with a lesser hand, i cant imagine that player a is calling with anything we beat. im expecting a cautious set or 2 pair to show up, one of them could have a flush.

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This is a sickening spot – I think we have to fold.

Let’s assume we have top two here as the description says, i.e. the river is the Kc and not the Qc.

Let’s take this street by street. It’s clear that the flop has obviously conected with both villains in some way. I’d be surprised to see either a set or two pair play it so slowly given the draw possibilities, so I think both players’ ranges are heavily weighted towards paired aces and heart draws.

On the turn, the action begins to look dangerously as though at least one of the villains has made his flush. Why would player A lead the turn now the flush has got there, having declined to lead the flop? Either he tried to slow play a big hand on the flop and is now finding out whether he’s been outdrawn, or he’s made his hand. His betsizing makes it look like a blocker bet, which is exactly what I’d expect him to do if he made a flush. Maybe he’d do that with a big ace or failed slowplay to control the pot as well.

And then after we call, player C FLAT CALLS FOR OVER A QUARTER OF HIS REMAINING STACK. This screams strength. Is he really doing this to cling onto a hand he’s desperate to get to showdown? I think we get our answer on the river.

When the river checks to player C on the river, is he really going to put half his remaining stack in here to rep that he has a flush hoping he’ll get two folds, when he is offering 5 to 1 on a call? There’s no way he floated two streets to make a move like this, and surely with anything other than a flush he checks behind here in the hope his two pair or big ace or whatever is good. Unless this guy is a complete donkey (player history would be useful), I’d say his dingy value bet on the river here is a flush the vast majority of the time, probably the nut flush. Even failing that, player A could easily be showing up with a small flush here.

It’s sick but I fold. 7 to 1 seems like an insane price not to take with top two, but it’s for a third of our stack and it sure looks like we’re beaten. We’re going to see what these guys have got anyway, so we’re not missing out on any information. Puke and fold.

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Waste_of_Paint Reply:
January 17th, 2011 at 3:06 am

Correction – he’s offering 6 to 1 on a call

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Can’t fold, pot odds are too good. This is not a good spot to make a hero fold. We only need to be good here 1 time in 8 to be breakeven.

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Hard to fold a 7:1 hand, but I can’t imagine what these guys have that I’m ahead of.
We’re looking at a board that hit flush draws as well as multiple straight draws. In addition, any number of 2pr / set hands are possible.
Button could be taking a stab at the pot, but I can’t see player A calling with less than 2pr.

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John Kugelman Reply:
January 17th, 2011 at 12:01 pm

“I can’t see player A calling with less than 2pr.”

Say what? His line makes perfect sense with AJ, A9, KK, or KQ with a heart. Those aren’t *well-played* hands, but he can certainly show up with any of those here.

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(Apparently the title has been changed, so we now know that we have TPTK and nothing more)

This is ridiculous. We three are just building a pot, to be taken by whoever has the best hand on showdown? Very chivalrous, but good poker? No.

What did we hope to achieve with our small flop bet? All the obvious (combo) draws were invited along, worse aces and decent PP’s get a discount where they would’ve paid more.

We’ve interestingly all led a street, with very modest bets. Apparently no one really knows where he stands in the hand.
Since we hold the Ah, no one can be sitting on the stone cold nuts, so there is nothing that either of them can hold that logically follows from the way the hand played out. It is likely but far from certain that someone has a baby flush, or a scared set, or a straight with KJ or 43 (spades).

But I cannot fold here. Not at these odds, not this committed. If our objective was to get to showdown cheap (and I can’t see what other objective we could’ve had), we did it. This is as cheap as it gets. I’d say we have the best hand about 25% of the time, which is plenty considering the odds.

Call. And: note-taking time.

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This is a good quiz. I could go either way. I am almost 100% positive that we are beat here. We have one pair – ONE FRICKIN PAIR! Especially on a board like this one, how could we possibly think we are still going to win at showdown. Pretty ridiculous. But…I can also see the other side of the coin with the posters who are stating its a must call situation because of the odds. I mean, what is it, about 7 to 1? How mad would we be if we folded for the last bet of 1000 and nobody has us beat…?

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John Kugelman Reply:
January 17th, 2011 at 11:57 am

“Especially on a board like this one, how could we possibly think we are still going to win at showdown.”

Because the button only bet 1000 into a 4900 pot, and UTG just check/called that small bet. I give UTG no credit for a hand better than ours, and I don’t see how the button has a better hand 85%+ of the time. I’d say 50% at most.

This is a very clear pot odds call IMHO.

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I don’t quite understand the logic of previous posts guys. BTW when I wrote my first post, that was when the quiz said we have two pair. With TPTK, this is a clear fold to me.

Surely, 7 to 1 odds are only worthwhile calling if you’re winning more than 1 time in 7? And surely in this spot, we are not.

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Nelson Reply:
January 17th, 2011 at 11:44 am

Right – I tend to agree. I think I’d lean more towards folding here. I can’t remember…who was it that said – “you’re not pot committed if you know you’re beat!” Seems like only the most stubborn player out there or a complete moron would call in this spot.

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T Reply:
January 17th, 2011 at 12:21 pm

Uhh… None taken.
So if we are going to fold, why did we call the turn? What did the Qc on the river do other than completing a gutshot with KJ?
I know, player G seems to be hiding strength the way he handles his stack, but please give a range of hands for which this is actually justified here. Don’t forget that it also has to justify the calls on flop and river.
Why can’t he be a loose passive moron? And if he’s not and he has a big hand, would you say he played it like a pro? This hand is full of mistakes, if there is a way to tell which is which please enlighten.

If we lose the hand, we have a 24BB stack left. Workable. If we win, we take the lead in chips.

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Nelson Reply:
January 17th, 2011 at 12:40 pm

Good discussion. I see your points. Looking back, I think our call on the turn that completed the flush was weird. We still had the button to act behind us and just calling didn’t really give us any new info in the hand. Perhaps we should have raised Player A’s bet of 750 to see if we could find out more? Don’t know, and the hand does seem full of mistakes or poor play, but the thing is, its kinda hard to tell exactly where the mistakes are happening. Do you think it would be way too weak to fold on the turn to Player A’s bet of 750?

Pirate21 Reply:
January 17th, 2011 at 1:54 pm

“What did the Qc on the river do other than completing a gutshot with KJ?”

Also made 2-pr for AQ – which seems more likely than KJ and is definitely within the range of both).

I don’t have a problem with those who vote to call due for the 7:1 odds. I can buy the argument that the math justifies this.
If this were against 1 player, I would be more inclined to call. I just have a hard time believing that we’re ahead of both of them.

Anybody else wish we could see what happened in this quiz? I’d love to know the outcome if it was based on a real tourny.

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Agreed. Dhq staff used to provide actual outcomes. I know that can lead to faulty analysis but would really like to know especially since it went to showdown. Maybe the actuals could be posted the following day kind of like the crossword.

Lol “actuals” gets autocorrected to afghans. Thanks apple.

I voted call. Good points on both sides. Good quiz.

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This is one situation where I’d love to know the stakes. Against sane players with anything more than Starbucks money at stake, the only hand we beat here is AJ. No one else would have stuck around to the river with money going in on every street. We’re behind vs. AQ, AT, KJ, QT, TT, 55 and any heart flush. I’d say at any buyin above $10, it’s just way too unlikely that both opponents hold AJ. We’re 95% certain to be behind and a tough fold makes sense.

But if we’re on the play money tables — or something that’s essentially the same — then our opponents can be stumbling around with A4s, A7o, A9o, etc. Everyone’s range is vast, and punky little probe or blocking bets with marginal hands are quite common. We’re probably still most likely behind, but our situation isn’t quite so hopeless. Then it’s a call. (Although there is now the risk that we pay off Q2!)

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I thought fold initially, but am reconsidering. Depending on the history, we could eliminate the flush for player G. We hold the Ah, and who slow-plays a non-nut flush for 1/3 your stack on the river vs 2 players? This leaves sets and KhJx making thin value bets on the river, plus completely psycho 6:1 value-bet bluffs.

I can’t make the case that G bluffs half a stack in position more than 1/3 of the time, which means we need to be ahead of player A about 1/2 of the time to make this a profitable call (i.e. our chance of being ahead of both ~ (1/3)x(1/2)). Player A could have AxJh, but could also have two pair, a set, or a baby flush checking to induce a bluff. Weirdly enough, if we assume player A makes the same assumptions as us, A has to call with anything that beats a bluff, which forces us to call, too. In practice, though, I think player A probably doesn’t call here with QhJx, etc, so it might be hard to beat half of A’s hands.

Anyone get more aggressive on the turn with TPTK + NF draw, knowing that our opponents can’t have the nuts?

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