Daily Hand Quiz

player A min raises pre and has been straight forward so far, So he’s got something.
I think A flopping nut straigh is unlikely. AK doesn’t fit a min bet of course we could be unlucky that’s he’s decided to a variation but that still makes it unlikely. Not raising the flop makes it even more so. Whats the chance of at least two of B,C and D calling to hero calling a raise to 45. I’d say more likely that hero calls so As call is a -ev play if he has AK. We’re a head here and call

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AK looks like it could well be there, but I don’t think I can be so nitty to fold the second nuts. What about 89 being there or two pairs or sets? Maybe even a creative play with a draw (although this sounds unlikely)?

So I voted call.

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Pirate21 Reply:
January 14th, 2011 at 10:26 am

I think some sort of combo draw may make this play (maybe something like A9c / A9s?).
In fact, if I had one of those hands that’s exactly what I would do as player C.

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Yes, AK could be out there. It’s really unlikely, as is our hand. So many hands hit this board hard. If the flush had hit the turn I might consider folding, but this is a fistpump call.

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I hate second nuts. I hate that there are 2 flush draws. But I call. Crying.

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No chance in a million years I’m folding this. I would be very surprised to see AK show up here when no-one raised our flop bet on such a dripping wet and draw heavy board. I’m calling and expecting to see something like 2 pair and KQ spades.

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If one of them has AK, so be it but that’s a small part of both of their ranges. Min-raise or call from EP doesn’t exactly scream AK.
I’d say we see a lot of 2pr / set hands showing up here. Player C could very easily have 89 and be protecting against sd/fd.

We’re getting better than 3:1 to call here and most likely fading somewhere between 4 and 13 outs.

Call and hope for a small red card.

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I’m losing to 1 possible hand, I’m going to get 3:1 all in with 2nd nuts, and it is very likely these guys are holding each other’s re-draw outs, be it spades, clubs, or full house board pairings.

If you don’t insta ship this then what the hell are you doing. Pretty easy quiz on this one.

How about this, would you be good enough to fold this if that was the Q of spades?

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Let’s walk through this, step by step:
0) This is a full ring game, so EP players should be much tighter than in a 6max game and you can expect much less preflop agression as at a 6max table.
1) There was a raise from UTG and a couple of calls from EP players.
2) Should we handle a minraise any differently then a normal raise without any specific read? I think not. Minraise is weak and stupid unless you play the same people all the time and you’re able to balance your game optimally. Any other case and it’s plain stupidity.
3) What’s the chance that there’s an AK out there at this point? Very high IMO, actually AK is the largest part of a regular players UTG raise / call a UTG raise range at a full ring table. And there’re 3 EP players involved.
4) We bet about 25% of the pot on the flop and collect 4 calls. I don’t know if betting out was a good idea or not, but the bet amount was far too low, so we do not get much information from the flop play. Anyway it’s remarkable that the player on our left called: since our weak bet cried for raise (I guess this was the aim of the undersized bet) he got to had something strong and trapping or a drawing hand to make the call. Since he raised from UTG, I discount classical drawing hands (AXs, suited connectors). Others could have anything, they got irresistable odds to call.
5) We finally bet a correct amount on the turn (about 3/4 pot if I’m right) and got a minraise and a 3bet. How do we evaluate a minraise there? In fact minraises scare the sh!t out of me since it’s the donks usual “I want more money in but I don’t want to scare you out” play. And player ‘A’ is a donk, he minraised pre, remember?
6) Now C comes over the top. He’s pretty unlikely to have a combo draw he didn’t have on the flop. He’s pretty unlikely to play that combo draw fast on the turn after seeing a strong bet and a suspicious raise. Not to mention read is that they are straightforward players. So he’s got something he wants to protect IMO.
7) If the hand ended right here, we would need 25% chance to win. In other words there should be 25% chance AK is not out there. I think AK is at least 75% to be in A or C’s hand considering how the hand was played out so far. Any other hand they can have (from sets down to AQ, not to mention the combo draws others have suggested) are hands drawing out on us right now, meaning that there are no good rivers for us but there can be a couple bad ones, further decreasing our chances to win.

Conclusion: pot odds make it close, but I think it’s a -EV spot to call anyway. We loose to a single hand only, but every sign points at that very hand. We don’t have outs to improve, but even in the unlikely best case when neither villain beats us right now, they both have about 3-10 outs (not overlapping most often). This is a good spot to fold and save the remainder of our stack.

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Waste_Of_Paint Reply:
January 15th, 2011 at 3:10 am

I really like this analysis, I have a couple of points to make though.

First of all, would player A or C really flat on this flop to our bet with AK, with five players in the pot, and not protect?

Yes, player A’s play looks a bit donkish, but in that case I am adding AA and KK to his range as well as sets, he probably thinks he’s trapping.

Massive pair + draw hands may well play this way, such as AKs and AQs. Add straights / sets / two pair into the mix and it’s beginning to look very good for our second nuts.

I think this is easily +EV to get it all in the middle as we are destroying both players’ ranges and getting 3 to 1.

“This is a good spot to fold and save the remainder of our stack.” – this is cash, stacks don’t matter, it’s all about the maths. If one of them has AK, then gg, nh, wp, reload and move on.

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Waste_Of_Paint Reply:
January 15th, 2011 at 3:45 am

Another point to come from that… if this were a tournament situation, it would be a much trickier quiz.

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AK in either position would want to protect against flush draw on the flop against the field and would have most likely raised.

I’m reading seat A as trips or 2 pr (possible flush draw), Seat C might have limped with 9T in mid position and picked up a flush draw on the turn. Re-raise to try to isolate the draw IMO.

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T Reply:
January 14th, 2011 at 7:03 pm

Due to there not being the option to raise, I subconsciously assumed the diagram showed A’s stack before his $120 raise… If the diagram is accurate, a call here is utterly terrible, giving A over 7:1. Thanks for bringing this to light, whether you intended to or not

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T Reply:
January 14th, 2011 at 7:04 pm

Not over 7:1, nearly 7:1. Still.

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Correction for last post Read on Seat C: 89s

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were not folding, so the only thing to think about is how to maximize value for the majority of times were ahead. this is a very simple quiz. there is only one player left who is not all in, and he has $199 behind. if we call, he’ll be more tempted to put in the extra 80 he owes for this street and have only $120 behind into a huge pot. if we lead the river then, he’ll call with anything other than a complete missed draw. on the other hand, if we raise here, he’ll only call with a very strong hand and we fold out a lot more of his range.

call.

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