Daily Hand Quiz

This is clearly a shove or fold decision, and this early on I am happy to let JJ go.

With no significant read on the table we have to give the cut-off credit for a big hand here. I’m making his range as narrow as TT+/AQs+ and leaning towards the top end of that range as AQ/TT might flat in that spot rather than 3bet. There’s also the possibility that the early position raiser has a real hand as well.

Calling is obviously ridiculous – it would be 30% of our stack, there are no odds to setmine, there are still three players to act behind and we’ll be out of position on the flop. Shoving is just way too dangerous, I want better than JJ if I’m going to get all my chips in this early. So that leaves fold.

I would also fold AK here. Hell, it might seem tight but I think KK would be my minimum requirement to stay involved in this spot.

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Given that:
a) it’s early on in the tournament and the blinds are still at 100/200
b) you’ve seen a raise and a re-raise in front of you
c) you’ve yet to establish reads on your tablemates
and
d) you’re out of position against both raisers
…
I would FOLD here.

Jacks look pretty, but can certainly get you into trouble easily. You’re most likely looking at one of the raisers having A-K or A-Q, perhaps even better like QQ or KK. It’s just too easy to get burned here. If I don’t flop a J ball here and there’s any overs, I’m hating my hand.

I don’t think calling is an option here, because if you do you’re committing too much of your stack preflop. Add to that the fact you still have three guys to act behind you.

I think that if you absolutely must play this hand for whatever reason, the only play is to jam it here. It’s possible the 3-better could think you have KK or AA and lay down a strong hand, because you said you’ve been really tight so far.

But I still think folding is the right play, imo.

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Well. With no reads we generally have to by default give F credit for the goods, since we have no reason or history to suspect him of making a squeeze. But this is not a snap fold. Here’s what is making me skeptical:

C goes x3. This could really be anything, we can give him a looser range just for sake of argument. D calls. E calls. What would they call with? Now F makes what seems to be a bloated 3 bet, but only because of the callers. So what could they have? C could have any pair, any suited medium to high ace, KQs, maybe even medium connectors. D and E I’m not so liberal. I’d give them small pairs, possibly high suited connectors that aren’t worthy of a 3 bet.. JTs-KQs, suited rag aces. I’m damn positive they aren’t holding QQ+. F I’d say could have possibly 88+, AK, maybe AQ if he’s goofy and sniffs dead money.

With all of the action jacks start to shrink in comparison, but the one thing here that I can’t ignore is that it is very likely all of these players are holding each others outs. It is very likely there are a lot of Q,K,A mixed and matched throughout those hands. Normally when you see this action, you don’t want to get involved, but in this case, its almost like there’s too MUCH action to be believable. If all of the Q,K,A are scattered amongst those 4 hands, the odds of one having QQ+ is very slim, and if they have 2 overs, they’re drawing super slim to each others outs. Even if they have AJ, it doesn’t matter, we don’t need to improve, and it just limits them to even less outs. If we could reveal it right now, the worst thing we could see is C has AJ, D JT, E 44, F KK. But this is very unlikely. What is much more possible is see that its something more like C has AQ, D has 44, E has KJs, and F has AK, there is no way we would fold here. And this is a common reality, it happens a lot more than we think just because of the orders of betting. How many times have we had to fold a straight on the turn when its our action cuz the 2 guys in front of us both shoved all-in on a 3 card flush board that just got there, only to find out one is on an ace high draw and the other has 2 pair? It’s a disgusting feeling. But this JJ scenario I think is even easier to figure out, since its all preflop the hands can be narrowed to sharing a lot more often vs. obvious flushes.

So. We’re either really really right, or really really wrong. C’s range is so wide that I’m not worried about him. All eyes are on F here, and I’m willing to take my gut feeling here and say he’s sharing outs, and our jacks are good. If this is the one time we get cooler-ed, and he actually has KK amongst all the possible shared combination as well, then so be it I can handle that rare occasion. Not to mention us shoving here is going to look like the absolute nuts, and it may even narrow down to only getting called by worse, but I’m not concerned with that because I’m confident we have the best hand here.

I wager all of my chips. And if F calls off the rest of his stack with AK against what will seem like the stone nuts getting 3:1, don’t be surprised he’s drawing to a piddly 3-4 outs. And if we’re wrong, and we get coolered with KK amongst all the possible card sharing that is there as well, alright no big deal, it happens once in a while. But not enough to scare me away from this spot.

I think its very easy to get flustered by mucho action and not want to get involved. And I totally agree most of the time, but this seems like one of those moments where before making a fast decision, look at what might really be happening, besides no-reads flexing strength. No we don’t have AA or KK, but I seriously think Jacks have good value here. So before we quickly throw them away, let’s deduce what might really be happening here.

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general johnson jameson Reply:
December 6th, 2010 at 3:47 am

posting some numbers from those hands. with all those ranges and 5 handed we are 30% to win. next is F at 22%. the other 3 are a dismal 8-10%. winning 1 out of 3, 5 handed to the end is a very very strong percentage. im using pokercruncher for ipod touch.

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I think it’s fold as well, given the raise from early/mid position and that reraise from the cutoff. I agree that this is a push/fold spot, and I’m gonna fold. Villain looks very strong, and even against AK we are looking at a big flip early on that we just don’t have to make. Later in the tournament, I’d jam all day long here, but here, I’m folding.

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fold. no reason to put it all in against multiple players all showing strength with JJ. even if we find the best case scenario and we’re 30% to win, as the General says, thats not what good mtt play is about, especially early. having a 70% chance to get bounced in exchanged for a slightly +cEV (chip EV) gamble is bad mtt strategy, and -$EV in reality. mtt’s are about picking advantageous spots, surviving, and chipping up.

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general johnson jameson Reply:
December 6th, 2010 at 10:57 am

what if we pretend theyre suited?

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Calling for 30% of our stack with 3 players left to act is out of the question. This is purely a shove/fold decision.

Player F just put in 30% of his chips, so he’s likely calling any raise and since we have no solid read, I have to give him credit and assume he’s not doing this with any less than TT+ and AJ+. We really don’t want a call from this range this early in the tourney.

I’m with the majority here – JJ is a solid hand, but this is exactly the kind of spot where JJ gets in trouble. We have a solid stack and plenty of time/chips to manuever. Stay patient, there will be far better spots than this.

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