Daily Hand Quiz

Low stakes player here. I call for set value. Additionally I’ll c/r flop c/f turn if no overcard flops.

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Poor odds for set value IMO. I can’t see a fold in this spot. Raising small seems pointless. So I’m going to max my fold equity and shove (although I’m not going to enjoy a call unless I see 10′s). Yes it’s true that I’ll probably only get called by hands that have me beat, but I’d rather do this than call and see overcards on the flop, or even if I end up with overpair the same hands that have me beat now will have me beat then. Also I’d prefer to give a chance for AK, AQs, KQs to fold now rather than hit the flop.

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36BB and change in effective stacks? I’m certainly not folding. I don’t like flatting 3-bets for the most part, and certainly not out of position. We’ll be in too many tough spots post flop. We don’t want the villain to be able to choose when to stack off, when to bluff us if overcards fall, or when to pot control.

Toss up between shoving and 4-betting small. In position I often like to min-4bet as it makes it possible to have a 4-bet bluffing range w/o being pot committed, and it puts people into awkward 5-bet-or-fold spots OOP. Since we’re OOP I’ll opt to just shove all in now.

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flamegrilled is right its a push, if it was a tight player i can see a fold but nearing the money players that have been aggresive will become more aggresive

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I’m with the RAI crew.

Can’t call as implied odds are not there; $3k to win $26k at best.

Folding JJ to an agg opponent seems extremely weak, especially in light of recent history.

Raising small may not fold-out AK, AQ as opposed to shoving AI. If we run into QQ+, still have 20 bbs to work with and remain in the $ hunt.

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Ahead of all but 3 possible hands, I’m raising large now. I don’t want to play JJ out of position vs an aggressive opponent. I expect V would be playing back at us PF with medium pairs, AT+, and some broadway hands. KK/AA are possible, but also may have raised a
little smaller to keep us around. I don’t particularly want a call and have to dodge 2 overs, so I’d lean towards shoving to take down the pot now.

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Our best line depends totally on what we think Villain’s range is.

If Villain is Tight/Aggressive, then we’re likely up against a pretty narrow collection of hands: most likely AK, AQ, QQ and KK but potentially also JJ and AA. I started out with that scenario in mind, which led me to vote “call.” In that case, his range is too strong for us to accomplish much with a push, except maybe set our chips on fire. We’re hoping for an undercards flop or a J, in which case we’re a much better proposition. If we get a favorable flop, we’ve got some delicate poker to play. But we may still be able to win most of the pots where a push would have worked, and get away from some of the pots where a push would have been suicidal.

If Villain is looser by nature – or just regarding us as an easily frightened player, who can be pushed off his hand — then we’re up against a much wider range. 88-TT are quite possible. AJs, KQs could come into the mix.

In that case, jamming while we’re probably ahead makes more sense. Our risk of being crushed pre-flop is a lot smaller. Also, we know less about our opponent’s hand, so our post-flop play would become even trickier.

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John Kugelman Reply:
November 30th, 2010 at 12:48 pm

“If Villain is Tight/Aggressive, then we’re likely up against a pretty narrow collection of hands: most likely AK, AQ, QQ and KK but potentially also JJ and AA… In that case, his range is too strong for us to accomplish much with a push, except maybe set our chips on fire.”

For what it’s worth, if we shove and he calls we are risking 21000 to win 26175, which means we need 44.5% equity to break even. JJ has 43% equity against a range of AQ+/JJ+. So even if the villain is super tight and never 3-bets light and never folds to a 4-bet, shoving is only slightly -EV. (Our EV would be -$835, to be exact.)

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Question:

We just folded to a 3bet and yet we’re being 3bet on the very next hand. If you were the 3bettor, don’t you expect us to be fuming a little and therefore more likely to call or shove back?

I think this guy hopes we’re tilted and stacks off.

I’m always a little cautious when I see the same play on the next hand or 2. The 2nd time is usually w/ the goods.

Just wondering if anyone feels a little uneasy about these scenarios

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Maybe you should have limped with J’s? Then called his 3x raise and get to a flop cheaper.
You very easily are raceing and I want to make the $$$. Fold and play another day.
I know you can’t wait for A’s but if he has them your crushed and short stacked!
When he 3X’s your raise he has to be prepared to call your all in.

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