Daily Hand Quiz

This hand description does not make sense. The hand is given as AJ in the text, and presumably the BB calls, rather than checks.

If you think he has random one pair, you want to bet; if you think he has nothing, you want to check and induce a bluff. You can’t fold, and anything that is beating you he will likely bet for value, so those hands don’t matter. I would check-call.

[Reply]

Waste_Of_Paint Reply:
November 17th, 2010 at 1:21 am

Check to induce a bluff? Think you’ve misread the quiz dude, we have position and it’s a case of do we check behind or do we value bet.

[Reply]

I think this is the kind of spot where by checking behind we are really missing out on value. I think far too many people take the line that “if we are ahead then the pot is big enough, so let’s check behind for safety”. The only hands that scare us here are 86, T8 and J6, and they are an incredibly small part of V’s range (I am discounting 85). Despite our lack of a read (wtf?) I really don’t think 77, 99 or JJ play the hand like this, and any flopped two pair was counterfeited on the river.

It smells to me that he is clinging on to a lone pair, probably with a draw to boot. Something like JT, T9, 98, 78, J8, QJ, KJ. I would also put QT in his range and maybe KQ. Whether we have KJ (graphic) or AJ (description) does make a slight difference but not enough to change my line on this – we are miles ahead of villain’s range and I want to cash in on that.

The tricky business is how much to bet. The stack sizes make it awkward to size a value bet. To continue with the same line we pretty much need to stick all of our chips in, but by doing that we probably price out hands that would call a smaller bet. By betting anything remotely close to half pot or higher, we are leaving almost nothing behind. I would probably bet around 400k, a little more than 1/3pot. By doing so we are giving him a price of around 4/1 and he will still have a decent stack behind if he makes the call… I think this will get us paid off a lot of the time.

Checking in fear of the miracle hands that beat us here would be a huge leak in my opinion. Let’s cash in on a hand that is almost certainly ahead.

[Reply]

Pirate21 Reply:
November 17th, 2010 at 5:15 am

Until our opponent checked the river I would have been concerned about a set (JJ/77/99) or straight(T8/85). I just can’t see him having these hands and checking three times – I would have expected a re-raise on the turn or a river bet.
Other hands we’re behind include J9, J7, 6x.
We’re ahead of all other Jx hands (assuming text, not picture) and a bunch of pr + draw type of hands.
I think it’s pretty easy for V to put us on TJ-AJ in this spot so I guess my biggest question is whether this is the type of spot where our bet is going to fold the hands we’re ahead of and be called by the hands we’re trailing.
I think it’s very likely we’re ahead, but I have trouble seeing our opponent folding J9/J7 here and I have trouble seeing them call with 9x/7x. I think we probably get called a good portion of the time from TJ-KJ.
Lastly, I have to consider the chance that V comes over the top. I think it’s unlikely given the line so far but if it happens we’re in a horrible spot.
All in all, I probably opt to check behind knowing I may be leaving chips on the table but also making sure to preserve my tournament life.

[Reply]

Pirate21 Reply:
November 17th, 2010 at 5:16 am

Oops – didn’t really mean for that to be a reply to WoP’s post

[Reply]

Waste_Of_Paint Reply:
November 17th, 2010 at 6:11 am

Note – we aren’t behind J9 or J7. We rivered a better two pair.

[Reply]

Waste_Of_Paint Reply:
November 17th, 2010 at 6:12 am

Oops sorry I got that one wrong… d’oh.

general johnson jameson Reply:
November 17th, 2010 at 3:38 pm

Nope you’re wrong there, J9 and J7 have jacks and nines and jacks and sevens, we have jacks and sixes. the only flop 2 pair we rivered out is 97.

Check behind. It is a close decision but for me the deciding factor is that we are close to a bubble. If we are ahead we have an above average stack and are well positioned to continue. If we are behind which I concede is unlikely then we are crippled or out if we bet here.

[Reply]

Voted to bet under half the pot. I’d make it 375K and give ~4-1 to V.

I think you need to value bet here. I believe a set or 2-pr is going to c-r the turn, especially considering stack size diff and hero’s tight image (QQ+ would likely go AI).

A danger is certainly 86 which would have called the flop/turn, however I don’t think the V would risk losing value by checking trips. If they have Jx, a call is likely.

[Reply]

gotta value bet. this looks a LOT like qj or j10, maybe a missed draw like q/10. most of their likely range is going to pay off a small value bet. something like 450k. sure, of course its possible that we’re behind, but all the signs are against that. this is a common situation where we might check behind on the river after having been called 3 times, so v would most likely fire out on the river to make sure gets paid if he had the straight. doubt a set plays this way. too many ways for a set to get outdrawn, theyd have protected earlier.

i understand the argument that the 450k you MIGHT get here isnt worth risking your tourney (or having to fold) and losing even more if he jams. i get that. but poker is full of these choices, and if you cant piece the puzzle together and take risks when the signs point a certain way, how else are you going to rise above the competition?

[Reply]

Pirate21 Reply:
November 17th, 2010 at 9:57 am

I was almost at your same conclusion when writing my post earlier… here’s where I got stuck though. What are you doing if he shoves?
To me we would be committed to the pot at that point, but with very little expectation that we would win it.
I kept flipping back and forth between – “How would you call?” and “How would you fold?”.

[Reply]

_CityBorn_ Reply:
November 17th, 2010 at 10:07 am

its pretty sick, but i think youd have to fold. there is just absolutely no way he’d raise for your last 400k, in a pot worth 2 mill, where youve shown strength every street, with anything that youre beating. thats a spot where you have to be like eh…forget the math, im beat and 450k means still in the tourney, while calling means hitting the rail. ive seen comebacks from far worse situations.

[Reply]

general johnson jameson Reply:
November 17th, 2010 at 4:49 pm

The question you ask there is where I am with this whole thing… to me, this is a no brainer value bet spot. But the real quiz question, is what do we do in the case of the unexpected check/shove?

Surely it is unconscionable to fold at that point a 2.4 million chip pot to simply 400k more. I think there’s only a 10% chance we are winning if we call, 5% he’s bluffing and 5% he’s just putting us all in for the rest with his hand, just to pressure.

Though this isn’t as high as the minimum 30% we could take, folding, and shoving any 2 cards in the next 2 hands hoping for a double up. So it is either:

We go 6:1 on our money at 10:1 odds.
We go 1.34 on our money at ~2:1 odds.

Both are -EV, but the folding option is less -EV. It really really sucks, but I think we have to fold, and then shove any 2 cards in the next 2 hands, because we cannot go through the blinds again. Hope we can find ace high and let it rip.

[Reply]

samo Reply:
November 17th, 2010 at 7:04 pm

Tough to do based on the odds, but I’m prepared to fold. Tight Hero has told a solid story throughout, and now has value bet raised on the river … I think our hand is a loser.

[Reply]