Flush draw OOP vs LAG, NL MTT

DailyHandQuiz

Game type: $100 Rebuy 6 max, Full Tilt Poker
Stage of tourney: Rebuy period closed
Your image: A little tight
Opponent’s image: Fairly aggressive
Your hand: A♣Q♦

The setup: You’ve been playing a little tight when you get dealt AQ in the SB. An aggressive player raises preflop and you flat. The BB folds and you get a solid flop heads up:

4♣5♣7♣

You check and your opponent bets 1360 into just a bit over 2500.

What’s your play?

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11 COMMENTS (Jump to comment form)

The Poker Meister

Do you ever think he’s going to pay you off if you hit the 4th flush card? The only card that will pay you off [possibly] is the Kc. However, you have a FD + 2 overs; 15 outs potentially. I don’t think there’s any sense in flatting again. Either check / raise with the intent of getting it all in or fold IMO.

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Nelson

I don’t like just calling here. That seems spewy. Looks like a perfect time to go over the top all in. Either he folds now and we take it down or we hit a club or one of our overs. Not sure what the percentages say – does anyone know how often we hit the flush or one of our overs in this spot?

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Rhycar Reply:
November 11th, 2010 at 9:38 am

Assuming an ace or a queen gives us the winning hand, we have 15 outs twice. We’re roughly flipping versus a lower pair. If V has AK, that takes away three outs, but we’re still 38-42 percent to win the hand. Obviously any club is the nuts, and the nine outs twice (33%) combined with the fold equity we have here makes this an easy shove IMO.

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Rhycar Reply:
November 11th, 2010 at 9:42 am

Actually 14 outs twice with the A or Q (counted the Qc twice, my bad).

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Aces n Eights Reply:
November 11th, 2010 at 10:44 am

“any club” is NOT the nuts – the 3,6, or 8 of clubs puts 4 to the SF on the board.

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riggs Reply:
November 11th, 2010 at 10:51 am

Using the 2-4 rule, if we consider the Q an out we have 14 outs so we are roughly 28% to improve on the turn and 56% at a show down. If the Q isn’t an out we are roughly 22% and 44%. Either way close to a coin toss if he calls. If he folds we add 60% to our stack.

Also if we fold, we have an M of 9.6 at a full table, so at a 6-max table we are more like 6. Which to me means we gotta move and quick.

All things considered I’m shoving right here if it’s me. Considering his apparent aggressiveness & the flop, the continuation bet from V doesn’t necessarily mean he hit. And I don’t think he pays us off if we hit the flush on the river.

So I shove looking to take the pot down now. If he calls, most likely I have outs. Unless something really ridiculous happened like V has 68c. In which case, more power to him.
And the poker gods probably hate you.

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Pirate21 Reply:
November 11th, 2010 at 12:26 pm

If he has 68c, he made a ridiculous bet that’s likely to fold out most hands. No, I’m pretty confident he didn’t flop a SF….

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Pirate21

Calling essentially commits us to the pot so why not just ship it now when we have some FE?
Pretty reasonable to assume we have at least 12 clean outs, which means we’re slightly better than 50% to win if V calls. Add another 25+% chance V will fold (probably much higher than that) and we’re way +EV on a shove.

BTW – I would never flat in this spot. If I’m not prepared to shove, I’d fold and play the next hand. I *may* consider flatting if the stacks were reversed, but never when I’m this far out-chipped. If we call and brick the turn, there’s no chance an agg player is letting us see the river for free.

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_CityBorn_

i voted call, but only because i didnt realize our stack size, i assumed we were deeper. at 20 bb, this is a perfect spot to ship.

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samo

Voted raise (RAI). This is a nice pot and we are likely a fav against their range. Stack size and possibility of another club killing the action necesitate a shove imo.

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John Kugelman

No brainer shove.

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