Daily Hand Quiz

Well, we are basically playing for a chop. This is a slam dunk, just review the facts. 1) He bet, we 3 bet, and he called in position. 2) We check, he checks. 3) We bet 450 into 1900 (lol??) he calls. 4) We check, he shoves 2100 into 2700, giving us an almost irresistible 2.3:1 on our money. Ok, now plug something like AJ or AQ into his hand. His entire line makes perfect sense. Especially, since our line wreaks of something like 88 99 or TT, and as a “successful thinking player”, you can bet he damn sure knows it.

I would say 95% of the time we see the ace. The other 5% we see a pure all-in bluff. There is absolutely no reason a player would all-in risk right here without the ace, when either of us could have it more than likely.

He could have bet smaller, but that’s not really reasonable. The price is still great, and he knows that board hit us in some way or another after the 3 bet, and there are TONS of hands that will pay him off. If we have an Ace and chop, so be it, he is on a free roll right now.

Having the ass end of a straight is never fun. But when it is a lower straight, say 3-7, or 2-6, those are much safer and have a lot more value because of the unlikelihood of a 6 or 7 showing up in someones hand. If you have the ass end of a 4 card running Broadway straight, in a raised and 3 bet pot, you can forget it brother. You have no value, you have no hand, and you’re essentially playing at this point hoping for a chop that this guy got screwed with K9 or something. But that isn’t even plausible.

Like I said, 95% this is the ace, knowing he has a ton of showdown value, vs. a board that no doubt probably hit hard against a 3 better. He’s easily expecting to get paid off by a set of jacks, tens, queens, or maybe even KQ. There are countless hands that could potentially call this, even though some of the stronger sets probably would have pushed more aggressive, but like I said it doesn’t matter because after the river he is free rolling. Successful thinking player? I def think so. If he actually had something like 2 pair, I think he would check it behind and just hope its good, as he knows he can’t get called by anything worse.

5% this is stone cold all-in naked bluff. And I don’t think a reasonable thinking player is going to choose this moment to put it all in, all the while giving us a great price, in the complete hope that we fold and only fold. If he’s just attacking weakness, well then he is brilliant and fearless, because I’m not gutsy enough to attack weakness here.

We 3 bet the nines, and we got about as horrible of a flop as we could ask for. Let’s admit it: we were done with the hand as soon as the flop shat on us. The river Ten just rubs our nose nice and down right in it. Our plan A was good, but we got shut down. Ain’t no thang. Let’s not get stupid here, and mistake our plan B for having value, because in reality there isn’t any here. It looks nice, but the ass end of broad way in a 4 card running straight 3 bet pot is a joke of a situation. This is exactly the situation where you can divide who the fools are, vs. who can recognize hidden danger. The fool looks at this as a king high straight (which sounds beautiful), instead of looking at it as nine high (because that’s really about all its worth.) And because there is no one who watches the fool call here that says “that was a good call.” This is the ultimate “Sucker’s” bet.

Fold, and admit that you still love pocket 9s. And if you deny it, your love will return when you go back to folding J3 for a dozen orbits. Danger ahead!

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Ran into the exact witch the general mentioned yesterday, a jack high straight of which I had the ass end. My opponent shoved on the river and I folded and he showed me his 7. So we would have split. Under what circumstances would one call there?

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Waste_Of_Paint Reply:
November 8th, 2010 at 7:01 am

I might call there if the situation was exactly the same, but villain had a similar stack size to us and he pot-bet the river.

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My biggest problem here is that I cannot put villain on a single hand that doesn’t include an ace.

Let’s rewind to the pre-flop action. Villain opens 3x from the cut-off. Action folds to us on the big blind and we pop it up to 900.

At this point, villain has 3170 in his stack. it’s 600 to call, and if he does then the pot will bloat to 1950, leaving very little poker for him to play post-flop with 2570 behind.

He is not calling a small pair here because the setmining odds aren’t there.

The only big pair I think it’s possible a successful, thinking player is not shoving in this spot is AA. With TT-KK he is jamming this right here all day long. With AA, he might call off the 3bet and hope that the ‘active’ player he’s facing will put it in for him out of position on the flop, rather than risk chasing out a cold 3bet bluff. The ensuing action is consistent with AA – it’s very conceivable that he checks behind on that scary board for pot control knowing that he might be walking into a check-raise.

So apart from pairs, what is he calling our re-reaise with pre-flop? KQ, KJ, QJ? I doubt it very much, and even if he did I don’t think he is checking behind on the flop. Some kind of suited connectors? Maybe if he was a lot deeper he would call and see a flop in position, but with the stacks as they are I am sure he is folding and looking for a better spot.

That leaves AK, AQ, AJ, AT (can’t see him calling the raise with a worse ace, and even if he did, he’s not calling the turn bet despite it being pathetically feeble). The post-flop action matches all of these hands. AK, AQ and AJ could all check behind on the flop for pot control, and AT could check behind to trap.

What are we expecting him to show if we call here? Unless something majorly off-piste is going on here, he has the ace. Let’s not donate chips to a dangerous player. Fold and move on, maintaining a significant table chip lead.

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hmm….it may be a bad call, but im making it. i disagree with previous posters only in that i think we win here a decent amount of the time. not the majority of the time, but enough that i make the call since i have the stack to take the hit if i lose, and can knock a tough opponent and beef up my stack if i win. we can also get a chop which wouldnt be terrible. the thing is, i could see a low pair showing up here. the only reason i think thats possible is because we played it so weak, and our turn bet was so small that any thinking player might figure he can steal it or spike a set for the win. especially checking the river…it just SCREAMS i give up, im scared, oh crap, i had nothing, you called the turn, now you definitely have something better. we would never have checked an ace here after hes played so passively, and he has to know that. i think any thinking player figures to take it down here with a shove the vast majority of the time given the action. and its not hard to believe given the previous action that he couldve still been in this pot with a weak hand. regardless of outcome, im interested in gaining info on how he plays…ill make note of what he had, his style of play, and hope it comes in handy later.

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Snap fold, and hang our head in shame for the turn bet.

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First I will make a mental note never to make such silly turn bets ever again.

Second, if I would find myself contemplating whether to call the shove, I will make a mental note to save the blocker bet for river instead of spewing 450 perfectly good chips betting a bricked turn with 3 connected overcards on board (see point 1.).

Third, I fold.

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I’d fold since the V story-line is tight enough to rep an A. 2-pr hands are raising the turn. Did not play this hand optimally, so let’s just move on.

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don Reply:
November 8th, 2010 at 1:48 pm

If 2nd pair is not the deuce, then 2-pr hands would have to’ve checked the flop. In that case, it would not follow that they’d necessarily bet the turn. It seems the reason everyone’s critical of the 450 turn bet is b/c the small amount allowed lightweight hands to remain in the pot. Upon seeing the river, the same everyone (except CityBorn) assume a pretty safe shove (following a Surrender check) has to mean the nuts.
The hard part is figuring what non-Ace hand called pre-flop. Small hearts? Unlikely. Maybe you stumbled on it: suited Broadway = 2pr.

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don Reply:
November 8th, 2010 at 1:48 pm

I mean “raise” the turn

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samo Reply:
November 8th, 2010 at 2:23 pm

V could have slow-played the flop, planning to raise a larger turn bet (on a blank). I think most of the time it is AJ, A10, or suited Ax.

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_CityBorn_ Reply:
November 8th, 2010 at 3:29 pm

i had a hand in a tournament exactly like this last night where i’d be in villains position. late position i had pocket 6′s. raised and called a 3 bet preflop. big cards came, checked behind, called a ridiculously tiny turn stab from the guy, just to see how it would go on the river. in the end, the hands and board were different, but im not sure why no one seems to think a pair under ours is in v’s range here given the action.

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