Daily Hand Quiz

Well. We’re only beating AJ, and he doesn’t have that. We gave up on this hand as soon as we checked the flop. Whatever he has, it is better than our hand. Even if he is betting bottom pair here, we can’t do it. If he has a J, our K is no good. So we’re drawing to 3 jacks or 3 aces, the aces which may not even be good. If he has 2 hearts or 2 diamonds, those are even less outs we have.

We raised like we should have, got a caller. For some reason we checked, now he is saying he has something. We should probably believe him. We are very healthy, and there is no reason to get out of line or think we need to stay in this hand with just ace high. Literally every one of our “outs” may not even be good. Even the jack draw is bad if it comes diamond or heart.

If he actually has a hand here, then we will have made no mistakes. If he is stone bluffing (and I don’t know with what.. anyone calling a raise out of position in the blinds has to have either hit or connected really nicely with that board) then oh well. Luckily this is a pretty meaningless forgettable hand for us, and we should be over it by the time we bail.

Pretty garden variety here. We gave up when we checked the flop, which may or may not have been our plan A. Regardless, we have given up control and the road to taking it back AND being believable about it could potentially be an expensive and more importantly pointless and unnecessary one. This is a horrible plan B, and we are getting a horrible price to draw to what I consider 3 outs – 2 black jacks and 1 black ace.

Fold. Even with or without the pay jumps, this is a no brainer. Just ask yourself: What are we hoping for here? That he’s going crazy with K8? Forget it. We’re outta here.

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Wow, this is a really good quiz, a very complex situation.

Villain’s turn lead here could mean a number of things:

1; He hit the flop hard, and giving us credit for a good hand after we opened from under the gun, tried to check-raise an expected c-bet. Now he’s leading the turn hoping his flop check looked weak.
2; He caught the T on the turn (probably with a combo-draw) and is betting to protect his hand (he also might be doing this with a small-medium pair and now thinks he is ahead after we checked behind on the flop).
3; He turned the nuts (KJ) and is betting for the same reason as point 1.
3; He has some kind of draw (hearts, diamonds, any jack) and is running a semi-bluff.
4; He has total air (medium suited connectors or something) and is trying to buy the pot.

Given the wealth of possibilities I would usually call in this spot and evaluate the river in position.

My river plan would be something like this:

1; If villain checks, regardless of whether we hit or not and regardless of whether it’s a scare card, I would put the pressure on and make a bet of around 3m, to look like a value bet. Our turn call looks pretty solid and may well shut the villain down and fold out some hands we are behind. Fold to a raise unless we have hit the J.
2; If a blank shows up and villain bets it, i would be very tempted to call with ace high depending on the size of the bet. I think he is betting a missed draw or air a lot of the time and if we’re right, our table image = don’t mess.
3; If a scare card shows up (particularly the 8 of diamonds/hearts or king of diamonds) and villain bets, I would probably give the benefit of the doubt and throw it away.
4; If we nail the J, regardless of whether it completes the flush, I’m aiming to get it all into the middle. Either raise a bet or bet around 3m if villain checks.

One thing is for sure – I would never fold here. I’m not willing to surrender a pot to an aggressive image without even attempting to find out where we stand. Raising is ok but folding is just far too nitty for me.

Use our position, make the call, evaluate the river.

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Waste_Of_Paint Reply:
November 5th, 2010 at 3:53 am

Apologies for not being able to count…

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I’d fold.

Despite agg V I’ll credit them leading into a dangerous board with bubble stack. Certainly could be drawing, but I think they would likely take the check-call route if that were the case. I lean toward them pairing the Q, with plans to c-c or c-r. Perhaps they paired the 10(A10, K10).

Calling with limited outs seems risky when there is relatively little invested, and a nice stack behind.

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My knee jerk reaction would be to shove, but I don’t think we can credibly raise here after checking the flop in what was a clear c-bet spot. If the flop didn’t hit us, the turn was less likely to hit.
We don’t have good enough odds on our draw to justify a call unless we plan to make a play on the river.
Unless V has shown willingness to fold to pressure, I’m probably folding.
It feels weak, but I don’t think we’re winning this pot without hitting and I’m sure I can make better use of my chips in a future hand.

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I really can’t believe some people would call here. We can fold now because we don’t have jack squat and still be second in chips (around 14mil) at the final table! Why be stubborn and get all spewy in this spot? I can guarantee I would find a much, much better spot to risk some chips.

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Waste_Of_Paint Reply:
November 5th, 2010 at 9:28 am

I just think it’s very, very possible that we’re ahead with ace high, or just up against a paired ten/weak pair and it’s a case of whoever wants the pot more will get it. I wouldn’t be calling to draw, I’d be floating to take it down on the river if villain checks again.

I am sure the top tournament players wouldn’t fold here. If villain has 65s or 77 I think he plays it exactly like this. Let’s say you are the aggressive villain and you have 77 and you’ve bet here on the turn, your opponent calls and the river pairs the board. Are you going to bet at it again with your stack as it is in comparison to the board, against a

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Waste_Of_Paint Reply:
November 5th, 2010 at 9:30 am

oops sorry accidentally hit post before I finished (and was supposed to say in comparison to the pot, not the board lol)…

…against a guy with a much bigger stack showing resistance?

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Nelson Reply:
November 5th, 2010 at 9:45 am

Oh, I agree our Ace high could be in the lead right now, but its iffy at best. I also think it is totally possible that we could get villain off a weakish hand (pair or draw) if we put him to the test, but I guess its just my personal preference to let this one go. Like I said, I like my chances conceding this one and trying another spot with my 14mil in chips.

samo Reply:
November 5th, 2010 at 10:28 am

I think that 77 would welcome a river pairing the board. From the V perspective they have eliminated a Q for Hero, and 9x, 4x are less likely raising from EP (unless of course they flopped a set). Even a hand like A9 is c-betting the flop. 10 is the only worry for the V imo.

If you want to fight for the pot, a stronger move might be a raise. This may indicate to the V that we floated the flop, shouldered some risk on a drawing board, and now want to end it. Over-pr, tp/tk, 2 pr, sets, and KJ could play the hand this way. Consider the solid image as well. I’m still not advocating this however.

Calling also leaves Hero vulnerable to a V stack that will be only slightly higher than the pot.

Pirate21 Reply:
November 5th, 2010 at 10:14 am

“I am sure the top tournament players wouldn’t fold here.”

Perhaps… but I’m equally sure the top tournament players wouldn’t have checked behind on that flop. I’d venture to guess a nice C-bet would have taken down the pot about 75% of the time and the rest of the time we would a) know where we stand and b) be in better position to represent a real hand.

To me, it only makes sense to continue in this hand with the expectation of shoving either now or on the river. Of your 5 scenarios, I think we’re only folding out 2 or 3 of them… in which case I’d rather hang on to my chips for now and put them to use in a future hand.

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Waste_of_Paint Reply:
November 5th, 2010 at 6:10 pm

Good discussion guys. I agree with everyone that says calling is bad if we are calling to draw, but – and maybe this is a leak in my game – I just feel this is a good spot for a float. We might well be behind, but this doesn’t feel to me like the villain is strong, it feels like he wants to end the hand now. With our ‘solid image’ I think a call may appear more aggressive than a raise.

general johnson jameson Reply:
November 7th, 2010 at 1:55 am

paint: Your idea of floating to take away is a great move. And it would show a lot of strength, but like I said previously, the moment we checked BEHIND on the flop, we basically tarnished our hand, and it is going to be very difficult to try and sell to him that we actually do have an over pair, and to get him to fold the better hand. Assume he thinks we have AA. That flop is horrible for our hand, vs. what the mid-high suited connector type range is of a BB flat caller. There are a ton of cards that could come out that we don’t want to see. Therefore, it is extremely difficult to sell that we checked the super dangerous flop behind in hopes to win an extra bet. Put yourself in V shoes. Lets say V has QJ or JT. Lets say the river bricks a 2. What’s it going to take to get you to fold, after the guy checked behind on that flop. Tight solid players who have a made hand simply do not check that flop. It is an unrealistic sell.

Now lets say we actually try to go ahead with the float/steal. It is potentially going to be very expensive:
First, we need the river to be a scare card, that will help our cause. But since we don’t know what he could really have, we don’t know what is or isn’t a good scare card, and what actually helped him. Its going to be painful if we rep hard on a scare card, and he’s actually got what we’re trying to rep.

Second: the math. Pot right now is 4.8. After we call, it will now be 6.8. Lets say he checks river. Now we have to fire, but what will he fold to, assuming he actually can and will? We’ll have to shoot a minimum of 4 million here to fold out middle pairs. Which means he has to fold 42% of the time for us just to break even. Even though we checked the flop as a tight solid, can we still sell that we have an over pair 42% of the time? Highly unlikely.

Third. What if he doesn’t check the river, and instead bets like 3.5 million? Our plan just cost us an extra 2 million for no reason. Unless we are planning to put him all in, still hoping for a fold. But do we really have the balls to do this, and again, after he shows strength a 2nd time do we really think he is going to fold that often here to our story?

The main issue here is just risk/reward. We’re digging into a very expensive situation, in the hopes that we have an image that can make up for our zero believability story. In addition, we gave up control of the hand, and now we are going to try and take it back but for why? Just because we think we can get him off of middle pair? There’s plenty of times where we can identify people have middle pair, but that doesn’t mean we need to try and take them off of it, and a lot of the time we can’t even if we try without a story to back it up. So much of poker is just story. And I think it is going to be a long shot and very expensive to try and get this guy to believe that we checked our tight solid KK on that wet ass flop in hopes that V would catch up or get suckered into dishing a small bet. Would you really lay down your KQ, QJ, JT here? Not without the ultimate pressure right? But then we’re risking 7 million to win 4.8 million, and only by a fold, and that is going to require a hell of a lot more than 50% fold just to break even. eek!

We got to see a flop, turn card, and 2 opponent actions with AK all for the low price of only 3xBB. I think we got a hell of a bargain, for what this normally would cost us. Lets take our 14 million and keep rolling. If we decide to play here, we could potentially go from 2nd table chip leader, to 2nd smallest table stack. And is this hand worth that huge of a tumble just to get back our 3 BB?

No one needs to answer that.

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easy fold. nelson said it best, why be spewy here?

calling is bad since we dont have nearly the right odds, and dont know what if any outs are good even if we “hit”. raising would be a bluff, but why bluff here? there are so many better spots to run a bluff. we dont really have a believable line, and we’re up against a v who seems willing to invest a big chunk of his fairly small stack here.

he couldve been hoping for a check raise on the river, or call us down with a mediocre hand here since our story isnt really believable. better spots ahead….

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easy fold. glad to know people would actually call here in hopes they hit a four outer, maybe even a 3 outer if he hits his flush.

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Fold.

Our check at flop makes it next to impossible to tell a convincing story that would justify our getting frisky with this turn. In Villain’s shoes I would be extremely incredulous – basically I would call a shove with any pair here. Well, perhaps not with 4s, but this is not a part of V’s range anyway.

It is of course quite conceivable that V turned a flush draw and, as we had wimped the flop, decided to put on some heat. In this case, our raise would of course take down the pot, but this is a prime example of a position one does NOT want to be in – i.e. put in a raise that will only fold out the hands we beat and that will get almost certainly called by hands that beat us.

Calling away 2m chips on such a wet board is likewise less than perfect option – it’s a very slim value we’re trying to catch here. If the river bricks, we stand to get called pretty light, should we decide to try and wrestle the pot away, and we’re really looking forward to see two black jacks and one black ace.

Fold. And wipe the hand from your memory.

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