Daily Hand Quiz

This is one of those situations where being out of position is very dangerous. We’ve got to feel confident that we are ahead, but if we call here then the pot will be bigger than our stack, we will be out of position and we will have no idea where we are if an overcard or club hits. If we raise, we are pretty much restricted to getting it all in, which will chase out hands in an aggressive villain’s range that we could have squeezed a bit more out of.

I think it’s best not to get greedy here and get it in there. Any raise pot commits us, which will be clear to our opponent, so let’s take it down now, or in the case we’re behind we will most likely have a ton of outs.

For what it’s worth, I think flatting 88 from the small blind against an aggressive opponent is a pretty weak play when we’re nursing a stack of 20xBBs. We’re going to be out of position facing a very difficult situation on almost all flops. We’re also inviting the big blind into the pot, and playing 88 three-way out of position is not good with such a short stack. We should have been raising pre-flop.

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Pirate21 Reply:
November 2nd, 2010 at 8:20 am

“For what it’s worth, I think flatting 88 from the small blind against an aggressive opponent is a pretty weak play when we’re nursing a stack of 20xBBs.”

**Agreed — Horrible P/F play.

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Shove pre, shove now.

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Jam

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agreed. its jelly time. we are probably ahead now, with multiple draws even if not. we dont know what v has or what cards would be bad for us, so have to protect our hand and move in. if he wants to make a mistake, its up to him, if not, im fine taking it down right here.

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Agree with other posters.

Not raising PF has us in a bind if V has overs w/a club. I think stack size diff makes it necessary to shove here, even if a ‘dog. I hope to take it down now, noting to raise 88 5-handed oop.

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Shove. Calling most likely allows v to make an easier decision based on turn.

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Shove all day in this spot.

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Nelson Reply:
November 2nd, 2010 at 8:04 am

I have a question for everybody – I think it makes for a good discussion. Say we check this flop and villain checks behind. The turn is a club (doesn’t matter, any club). Now we check and villain puts us all in. Would anyone call? Would anyone just shove the turn club instead of checking?

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Pirate21 Reply:
November 2nd, 2010 at 8:22 am

It had better be the 6c in that case.

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samo Reply:
November 2nd, 2010 at 8:37 am

No to both. If Hero spikes the miracle 6c, check-call until AI.

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Agree with all the above.
We could be trailing a bigger PP, but most often we’re dodging overs and bigger flush draws. Time to make a stand and get him off his draw. We’re committed by any raise big enough to do that, so we’ll have to get it all in. If behind, we’ll definitely have outs.

Pre-flop play was obviously horrendous.

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Nothing else to add really. The only thing I will is to stress is that even though this looks like a great flop for us, it really isn’t. If he doesn’t have a club, any 4th club kills our action. Any 6 kills our action. If he does have a club, there are only 3 we are beating, and they are too low to get a call from. If he has a club higher than ours, its unlikely we will be able to get it to fold, as those are only losing to a couple others.

All of this means that basically all we can beat right now is ace high. All of our outs aren’t really outs. The goal here should be to get him to fold and its unfortunate that shoving is going to be the only way to do that. Because if it turns out this guy actually has a legit hand, we are toast.

This is one of those hands where its like the cards kind of work themselves out. We aren’t really making decisions at this point, we have no options. And if we go bust here, it was meant to be, because I don’t know how we can fold, and if he decides not to fold either, well it will have just worked itself out like it does sometimes.
…………………………..
Just some math to show how disgusting this hand has potential to be, despite what looks like a kinky flop:

If he has any over pair with a club, he is 80% to win.

If he has any over pair with no club, he is exactly 50%.

If he has 2 red overs, he is a miserable 12%.

If V has any 2 overs and a club, and (correctly) thinks they are good if they hit, he is actually a full 44% favorite. And if he makes the shove call, he is getting a full 2.04:1 on his money, so he’s actually +EV on the call! This one is the scariest, because this is the most likely situation. If he calls, he’s actually not making any mistakes.

We can really only beat ace high. So whatever the cost, we need him to fold. The only way we are +EV in this situation, is if he makes the call with 2 red over cards, and this is unlikely. Every other case he has the correct price to call. If he makes the call with anything other than 2 red overs, he hasn’t made any mistakes. Like I said, this is one of those hands that just kind of works itself out. I wonder what people are talking about when they say don’t get greedy, cuz I don’t know what they are going to get a value call from.

Math says this guy is calling our shove all day long, but we still have to take the chance at getting him to fold, so all we can do is shove, and seriously cross every digit we have and pray to sweet Christ that he folds and doesn’t realize he is +EV in every situation, and considers circumstantial effects of losing this pot, like becoming short stack 5 handed, or stacking off after the rebuy has closed. Plus, if we shove, its pretty transparent. It stinks of made hand + no club. or it stinks of no hand, but lots of draws, all of which he’d still call with any of those 3 hands.

Shove, and pray harder than you ever have for a fold. Because he isn’t making any mistakes. This is our proverbial “one time.”

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Waste_of_Paint Reply:
November 2nd, 2010 at 4:05 pm

“Nothing else to add really.”

*cue 600-word post*

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Pirate21 Reply:
November 2nd, 2010 at 5:47 pm

One other note…. our CR from a tight player can look fairly strong here.
If I’m in V’s spot, I’d probably feel like I just ran into either a set or a made flush. A made flush would likely be something like two broadway clubs in which case, he’s got to think pretty hard about calling. I’m thinking we get a fold a reasonable amount of the time.

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general johnson jameson Reply:
November 2nd, 2010 at 9:34 pm

Yup. This is what I’m trying to talk about with circumstantial considerations that may get him to fold. We are praying on these things to get him out of the hand, because as it sits we are only beating ace high, and him calling with almost anything (regardless if he thinks it is a good/bad call if he thinks he is behind/way behind) is +EV for him. We just have to pray that he doesn’t know this, and considers the things that are not pot odds or story, cuz like I said, our move is super transparent, regardless if the CR is conceived of strong.

What would you say is a “reasonable amount of the time” percentage of folds we get here? What number do you have in mind with that statement? In my years of playing, generally this shove gets either snap called, or snap folded. What ratio though I can’t quite put a number on.

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