Gutshot OOP on turn, NL MTT

DailyHandQuiz

Game type: $50 1 rebuy 1 add on tournament, PokerStars
Stage of tourney: First hour
Your image: A little aggressive
Opponent’s image: No strong read
Your hand: J♠9♠

The setup: It’s still in the first hour of this single rebuy tournament. Both you and your opponent have already used your rebuy.

You get J8s on the cutoff. The table folds to the hijack, who raises to 155. You call and the button makes it 450 total. The blinds fold, and the original raiser drops as well. Since you’re deep, you decide to take a flop:

6♣T♣7♠

You check your gutshot, and the button checks behind. You brick the turn:

3♦.

It’s your action. What’s your play?

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6 COMMENTS (Jump to comment form)

twills

check call is weak, check raise is expensive. Leading out with (presuming the picture of the cards is right and not the text) you have a flush and gutshot. Lead hope for a fold with a backup of hitting your hand.

[Reply]

twills

Fail, 2 clubs not spades… Still lead.

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Pirate21

I’d probably lead here and try take it down. Flop didn’t catch much of V’s range and he showed weakness by checking behind, so there’s a decent chance he’ll let it go with only the river to come. If not, we’ve still go our draw and a fairly disguised hand to work with.
Without a good read on V, I’ll fold to a strong reraise (but why don’t we have a read on the player to our left an hour into the tourney???).

[Reply]

John Kugelman

Lead or check/fold. To lead we need a plan for the river, though. Are we barreling the river as well, and to what end? Is this a good spot to bluff? Questions to ask before you go and click the bet button.

And preflop was a terribly played street. Flatting a 3-bet OOP is spew, and the double flat makes it pretty difficult to win postflop without flopping good since our hand looks like exactly what it is–a speculative suited connector or small/medium pocket pair.

[Reply]

Major Dude Reply:
October 25th, 2010 at 9:53 am

Agreed. I originally voted check/fold, mostly because of a desire to get out of a hand that we never should have let go this far. But if we do want to stay involved, let’s think through what our story is.

There are really only two scenarios we can peddle. The first is that we hit a dream flop, hoped for a C-bet from the button, didn’t get it, and now are trying to build a pot on our own. In that case, we’re representing either 89 or 77, 66, etc.

That’s problematic, because then we’re trying to keep overcards, small pairs, etc. rattling around. We’ll want to bet 1/2 pot and keep betting the river. We’d like a showdown with our story (though not in reality.) Hard to see how to pull that off without a big risk of spewing.

The easier line is to represent a 55 or smaller PP. We didn’t like our chances much on the flop, but now, son of a gun, we might be ahead. We want to bet the turn hard and try to push out overcards or other gutshots.

That might work vs. a button AK, AQ, etc. It probably won’t work against 88 or 99. It’s unlikely button has QQ+ but not totally impossible. We’re in serious trouble vs. TT.

If we get a call on the turn, though, we’re in trouble. We’re either playing check/fold on the river, essentially abandoning our hand, or trying to make one more stab at the pot in hopes that we can finally force a fold. We’d need timid opponents to pull that off, and in a modest stakes rebuy tournament, I don’t think we’re finding them often enough to warrant sticking around.

[Reply]

teddy

wow. i cant believe 40% check call or check raise. good to kmow there are still plenty of fishees out there