Daily Hand Quiz

smells of trips or a nuts flush draw.
best case 33% flush draw hits and you lose. worst case – trips and you lose.
too early to get so involved.

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Pirate21 Reply:
October 20th, 2010 at 8:00 pm

That’s a pretty pessimistic best case

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well. this is the most obvious ace high clover draw well see in a while. the most important thing here is the reads. since we have zero reads that means he also has none on us. generally when you get into a hand with a new table player neither player has any reason to get fancy or out of line. so what does he have that can do this nonsense. 95, 93, 53 forget it. 99 very possible. 55 33 less likely cuz from early MP calling theres too many players to act and they have to fold to any 3 bet or squeeze. also i dont think a set would spring like this. its clear we didnt hit this board so it just looks like a garden variety c bet. he also has no reason to suspect or be worried we are on a clover draw. he could be going high cuz we are 4 handed but its not likely any more than 1 player could be chasing the flush draw. so theres no reason to fire that high. i think JJ+ would have 3 betto iso since there were too many players to act still. A2-A5 A8-AJ overs. this fits the call and heavy reraise too. remember our c bet looks pretty transparent. and this reraise is designed to do 2 things: either it gets our whiffed AQ something to fold or it scares us into checking a free river card if we actually have a hand we can call with.

so. considering that no one has any reason to get out of line, id say this is 90% going to be some ace high clover draw. its the only range that makes the most sense without getting out of line for all tbe action so far. if this is the one time we run into 99 oh well.

call. if the turn bricks non club and no over bet the pot. that will end the nonsense. if non club over go about 2/3. this one is pretty easy to sniff out. have confidence in the tens and lets drag a juicy pot here. no other range fits this story unless you consider getting out of line and there is zero reason to suspect any ounce of that being new to table and having 20 chip blinds.

call. and proceed with plan.

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general johnson jameson Reply:
October 20th, 2010 at 4:18 am

i also forgot to mention that when people raise or call very quickly it generally means some kind of draw. this is because the usual play of these hands is very auto pilot and predictable, and also because there isnothing else to really think about in terms of moves because there is no made hand yet. people with an actual hand generally will think a few moments to consider the best plan to extract value. very quick raise and calls are quite easy when you have nothing but ace high and 12 or so outs. just more strong reasons to file this under clover draw.

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John Kugelman Reply:
October 20th, 2010 at 6:19 am

Nice post. I agree with your analysis. I’m calling here and check/raising a non-club turn. There are more combos of overcard flush draws than there are sets, and your thoughts on timing tells are right on.

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_CityBorn_ Reply:
October 20th, 2010 at 7:31 am

i agree with your analysis, but came to a different conclusion. i think we have to jam. yes its early and i dont want to do it generally, but if we’re going to continue playing because we put him on a draw, why give him a chance to draw at his price? the pot will be 2k and our stack will be 2k, we’ll be out of position, and vulnerable to getting scared out. Or if we’re saying we wont be scared out, then why not apply our fold equity now?

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general johnson jameson Reply:
October 20th, 2010 at 10:27 am

i think you could do that. but heres what i thought: hes already priced himself out of his own flush draw so im not sure we need to jam over it hes already making mistakes. but heres the crucial thing. if we jam and he calls hes going to get to see 2 cards. we absolutely dont want this. now if we just call here see a safe turn then we jam. even for the loosest of players it is extremely difficult to pay so high just to see 1 more card. this is where almost all flush draws get folded. peeeling a flop is easy. if we jam the flop and lets say he has AJ and he thinks his J is good too if it hits then hes on 15 outs and theres even less likely hell fold getmting to see both cards. but the most important part here is that we get to act first. so we can stop n’ go him here. call now and blast that turn and even if he has 15 outs he is going to be very very hard pressed to see only 1 more card. the advantage is us acting first. call. make sure turn is safe. blast it and limit it to 1 card instead of 2. this is the best way to kill those dreams of a flush draw chaser and it protects our hand and chips on every street to make sure we win the most while simultaneously insuring that we lose the least.

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_CityBorn_ Reply:
October 20th, 2010 at 1:58 pm

yea, but what if he has a/9 and a club hits the turn, we’re check folding the best hand after putting that much in? or what if a non-club king or ace hits the turn, we’re jamming the losing hand after letting him get there? unless a non club card under 9 hits the board, we’re going to be leading into a tough situation (or check-folding a big pot and not knowing what happened). id rather let him get it in now with a range well behind ours then give him a free chance to catch up and then blindly put the rest in (or folding) not knowing where we stand after the turn.

Brian Reply:
October 20th, 2010 at 12:06 pm

I originally leaned toward folding, but I think the general may be right.

I don’t think this sequence makes sense with anything except AK-AJ of clubs, 99, or maybe 55. Maybe you could extend the range down a bit to small suited aces, or a freakish 46 of clubs, maybe even JJ-AA if they got creative preflop. In any case, villain’s R vs 3 opponents suggests significant equity against our hand.

We have only a 55-45 edge against the bottom of his range (A7 of clubs), and are crushed by sets and overpairs. Do we have fold equity? I don’t think so. If opp has set or overpair even one time in five here, our equity is about 40%. Given the extra money in the pot (3:2 if we pretend opponent jammed), this sounds like shoving is about break-even compared to folding.

The general’s line: we jam non-club turns, CF hit clubs. So we lose 570 ~18% of the time, and probably gain the pot the rest of the time (unless he has a set). EV = -570*.18 + .82*.8*1380 -2530*.82*.2 = 390 or so, assuming we stack off to sets and overpairs 1/5 of the time.

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With no read I’m not going to bust out with a pair. Fold.

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I’d fold.

Hero is beating 9x, but most of the range they are facing marks them a ‘dog: over-clubs, combo-draws (Ac3c), and lower clubs like 87. While I think sets and JJ+ are unlikely, we obviously are not beating those either.

Pot is getting too large w/TT; too early in the tourney; no read on the opponent. We bet the flop correctly, but the board is not in our favor. Let it go.

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In a live tourney I’d be very much inclined to play this one fast and just jam here. It’s a nice pot and since we were PF aggressor our shove should give them at least a pause for serious thought. I agree that it is very likely we’re up against a club draw and the fact that it is still 1st level makes it a little less likely that V might have been flatting with AA/KK in order to trap would-be squeezes preflop and QQ/JJ would anyway likely have raised.

The problem with calling is that this will take the pot to almost 2k and we will have 2k left behind. While we might love to CR the non-club turn, we are out of position and it is no way certain that V will be as forthcoming as to bet the turn after our check without having improved. Our tens are also vulnerable to overcards, as AKs, AQs, AJs are all within V’s range and giving potentially two free cards with as vulnerable hand as ours doesn’t strike me as a very prudent strategy. So it’s a tough one, but I would at least seriously consider calling and then perhaps jamming a safe turn myself and CF any clubs and aces.

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Call

Raise is insane- when you are called you are always behind.

Fold without read is no good.

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Since this appears to be the quiz that wouldn’t die let me pose a question. If v had the nut flush draw why would he not just call to see if he could entice additional callers and better his odds?

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Pirate21 Reply:
October 21st, 2010 at 8:24 pm

Standard thinking on the semi-bluff…
If he just calls, he has one way to win (catch a card and win at showdown). If he raises, he gives himself an extra way to win (H folds). So, if he calls, he will win just over 1/3 of the time (assuming just 9 outs). But if he can get our standard c-bet to fold another 25% of the time, he wins ~60% of the time.
In addition, the raise would theoretically disguise his hand more than a call – though maybe less so on this board.

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