Daily Hand Quiz

I’d say this is a call. This is the kind of flop we were looking for when we played our 78, so I’m not folding it this quick. Given our image, I’d say we’re reasonably well disguised so we should get value back if we hit the straight.
It seems pretty likely V has something like KT+ and hit top pair.

[Reply]

samo Reply:
September 27th, 2010 at 7:17 am

Agree, probably up against KQ. I don’t think a set is raising yet. If we miss the turn, check-fold to a decent-sized bet.

[Reply]

Bad spot: this is why it’s no good playing suited connectors OOP.
We’re getting bad odds to call: we have ~17% chance to hit our straight on the turn and ~31% to get in on the turn OR river.
If v has a K we are rarely going to get a free river card (maybe if an A turns or something). Let alone if he has 2pr or a set.

Even if v is bluffing (with the flat call pf that don’t seem very TAGish) we still can’t beat him at showdown without our straight most of the time.

We bet this flop because we wanted to build a pot, not to get HU with a hand that’s well ahead of ours.

We can try reraising and represent AK I s’pose. But I prefer a fold, I just don’t see much equity in this hand.

[Reply]

I voted call here. We are getting 3-1 odds to call & given our image if we hit we could get paid off pretty good if we hit.

[Reply]

Voted call even tho I don’t think we are that well disguised. Not sure we will get value if we hit. Good argument for not playing this kind of hand oop.

[Reply]

Pirate21 Reply:
September 27th, 2010 at 8:18 am

Why don’t you think we’re well disguised? H is playing what appears to be his standard P/F and C-bet line for this session. Early position P/F raise is certainly not screaming medium suited connectors (as you noted…not a great hand to play OOP) and the c-bet could mean anything from a set to air. I’m not saying that V won’t consider the possibility that we have 78, but I doubt it’s what he’s putting us on.

[Reply]

Gotta call here but be prepared to check fold if we miss on the turn. Definitely a decent flop for our hand. I probably would have checked it on the flop to try to keep it small and hit my hand.

[Reply]

I like a re-raise here.

We have an aggressive image pre-flop, which means our continuation bet looks pretty thin. Villain could easily perceive this situation as player F having nothing (priced in to see a flop but now shut down) and hero c-betting with a wide range. While it’s definitely possible he has a king, I don’t see it as being the overwhelming likelihood – from where he is sitting this definitely looks like a juicy spot to make a move in position.

If we 3-bet right here we force villain off a huge proportion of his range. He could easily have something like 77-QQ and not believe we’ve connected, and is raising to see where his pair stands (I bet if the quiz was the same thing but in his position after our c-bet and he has TT, a lot of people would be advocating the raise). He could be doing the same with a decent ace or even air.

If our image is ‘aggressive preflop’, that implies to me that we’ve been fairly passive postflop. If we 3-bet in this spot we are representing huge strength. What is he going to put us on? The only draw on board is the one we have and it seems pretty far fetched. Would we do this with total air out of position? I don’t think so.

The board is pretty dry and we’ve been raised. It would take a very hard-headed player to continue against us here even with most kings right up to KQ if we pop it again. I think he would have been almost certain to 3-bet AK, KK or AA here preflop so I expect a re-raise to take the pot down right now most of the time.

To me this is a great spot to use the image we have cultivated. Let’s make it 850 and look like we mean business. If he comes back over the top with a ship, fair play to him, he either has it or he’s outplayed us and we can fold. If he calls, he’s definitely strong so we can shut down if we miss the turn, or there is the backup possibility of hitting our draw, which will probably result in us stacking him.

Play the situation, play back at him! Re-raise.

[Reply]

general johnson jameson Reply:
September 27th, 2010 at 11:33 am

I’m glad that I’m not the only one that flirted with the re-raise idea. Your reasons are different than mine, but I still agree.

[Reply]

samo Reply:
September 27th, 2010 at 11:43 am

I think if you are able to put the V on something like AQ, raising is right on as you are a 5-4 fav. Given the images, I think that 99+ are 3-betting the Hero PF however.

[Reply]

I’d say 90% this is gonna be something like KJ+. His raise is either saying “I really like my hand and I want more money in there” or “I don’t totally like my hand, and I’d like to end this right now, but I also would like to know where I’m at exactly.” Or in simplest terms it asks “DID YOU HIT THE KING TOO?”

So we’re drawing to 8 outs, I could say 9 for our runners, but if he has K7 or K8 suited or something then those are no good.

I think this boils down to a single 2 part question: Does he like his hand enough to pay us off if we hit, and if not, can we get him to fold? If the first answer is yes, then I think we should call, and then block bet the turn. If he is incapable of folding his KQ, the implied odds are huge here with the stack sizes. If the first answer is No, but the 2nd is Yes, then I think we should raise again right here. If he doesn’t fold here, I think a good 2/3 lead on the turn should do it unless he strikes gold. If he calls that, then abort all missions and give up unless the river bails us out. I think this is the best plan, as in both our plan is to see the river card, which for this draw is the most important thing… but it also plans for whether he does or doesn’t like his king. If he doesn’t go away after the turn though, and we miss again, we cannot bet again, and we will have to check/fold. Do NOT try to muscle him on the river thinking he will fold, this is not the plan A or B, and generally when people get greedy or desperate and try a plan C it always ends in catastrophic failure. If our answer to his question is No/No, then we should fold right here and just move on, as there is no plan that is going to be worth it.

Call or raise. Ask the question and decide the plan. Just remember one thing: This is going to be an expensive pot if we do anything instead of folding to this re-raise. Which is both a good and bad thing in this situation. But we’re very well disguised, especially if a 9 pops out of there, and since we have only a draw, it makes folding a lot easier than if we were tackling with a made hand here, like KJ or something. Do not try for plan C!!!

[Reply]

Major Dude Reply:
September 27th, 2010 at 3:57 pm

Against a thinking opponent, your read is 100% spot on. Your question is the right one to ask, no matter what.

Here’s the factor that made me vote “Fold.” We moved to this table because it was fish-infested. That’s great because they play thin draws too hard, telegraph their big hands too readily and can’t fold anything.

But if Villain is one of those fish, we’re throwing chips away if we reraise to try to get him to fold KJ. He hit his draw!! How can his hand not be good when he hit his draw!!! There’s too great a risk that he will press on, believing that maybe we have QQ or some hand that isn’t as good as his.

It might still be worth a call, on the hope that a happy turn card will make us rich, or that we can get to the river without too much more $$. Still, we’re assuming a lot about implied odds.

If we’re right about this table, there will be lots of other chances to get paid when we dominate. There’s nothing sadder than trying to play Smart Poker against weak players that don’t know enough to do the right thing.

[Reply]

I too think this is a call.

Getting 3:1 we’re being offered a very tempting price to peel off a card, as it would also seem to me that there is a fair chance of getting paid off if we hit.

Playing back is certainly an option, but the problem is that we might not have quite as much fold vig as we’d like. If we repop and get shoved into I’d be kicking myself for having to throw away that hand instead of paying 200 for a chance to get all the chips in with nuts.

[Reply]