Daily Hand Quiz

im gonna put him all in right here. theres almost no hand he can have that he can comfortably call and hes going to be under a ton of pressure to make a call. tbe only comfortable call be can make is flopping a straight or KK+. Anything else puts terrible pressure especially since he willbe calling all in getting near the money. our range is also dangerous. we have very agg image so we could easily have a high over pair, a set, AT+ or KQ of hearts. even if he had something realistic like 88 or 99 he has to consider that we could easily have 2 overs and a heart draw. so even tho he may think he has the best hand he is going to have to dodge a ton of outs and do it so close to the money. this is the ultimate pressure you can put on a guy right here. this is what doyle talks about when he says force someone to make a decision for all their chips.

if he actually does call and wins we are still over 50k and sailing. we are no longer playing our hand here we are solely playing the player. and his range he can easily call is so small this is going to be an EV+ play. We have an agg image and it is going to work right here because this move fits and on top of it he has too much to have to consider. aces, kings, straight draws heart draws with overs, sets, its too much. he can only call comfortably with aces kings or a straight. our move prices out all draws and on top of it makes them feel like we could have the draw and they’d have to dodge a ton of outs. and since those 3 hands are so improbable, it is very rare we wil get a call here at all unless he is super gutsy or has had enough. this is one of those lovely times where we can get him off of almost any possible hand. go get her ray.

put him all in, our cards no longer matter in this hand. and being first in here applies the ultimate pressure.

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_CityBorn_ Reply:
September 24th, 2010 at 6:32 am

calling a raise with a short stack means we have to give his hand credit. either big cards or high pairs.

i like a lead for about 8k since most of his range is high cards, and we’re going to have trouble getting away anyway if hes got a big pair.

i chose a non-allin raise, cause its essentially telling the v he’s gonna have to play for his tourney life without seeming desperate to get him off his hand. plus it will help balance my range when im betting in other situations. i rarely want to overbet the pot….even against a short stack (depending how short of course).

have to call if he comes over the top, but thats essentially what shoving would have done anyway. anything he raises with, he wouldve called with.

no question you have to lead though, last thing you want to do is give him a free chance to catch up with overs, especially if even worst case scenario has us drawing to 6 outs.

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_CityBorn_ Reply:
September 24th, 2010 at 6:36 am

sorry, that last comment wasnt meant to be a reply, but ill reply now….

i disagree with your general basis that he’ll have a tough time calling with hands like 88 or 99, i think he’ll jump for joy. an all under flop is the best he couldve asked for, and now an agg v is trying to put pressure on him. our range is wide and he has to like his chances.

basically, if hes got overs, he’ll prob fold, if hes got a pair, hes getting them in. the only question is whether you want to balance your range with a lead that suits other situations, or you want to flash the “all in!” neon sign.

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Pirate21 Reply:
September 24th, 2010 at 8:53 am

@ CityBorn…
But don’t you think he would have re-raised PF with a middle pocket pair?
He didn’t really want to see a flop and he knew that most of the time he’ll be facing overs.

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general johnson jameson Reply:
September 24th, 2010 at 11:05 am

First, I apologize for how incoherent and repetitive my first comment was.. it was 6 am and I was just leaving work and I was a total zombie. I cringed reading it again. Jesus did I mention Doyle? I don’t even remember that part.

CB: I agree with your reasoning. But you kind of furthered my argument. He knows that we know, that we have to give his short stack call credit for a raise. Even amateurs recognize this. Yet with us still having this knowledge, we are putting him all in. We aren’t really flashing a neon sign here, I think of it more like this: “I know what you have, and I’m still putting all of my chips into the middle, good luck.”

Further, considering the pot size, and V’s stack size, there is essentially no way we can fold, right? If we bet, and he comes over the top, we cannot fold. If we check and he shoves, then we mis-played it horribly. He’s committed calling any kind of bet, so why not just apply the fullest pressure we can right here and now? Are we not happy to take this down right here? We can narrow his range down pretty good here, and that’s half of the ammunition we have. If he has a made hand, it is gonna be 88-99, maybe 88-JJ if he’s a timid Jacks player. Unless he’s a moron trying to short stack trap with QQ+. Other than that, he has overs. Lets say we are V, and we have 8s8d. We call EP raise, that connected flush board comes out, and now we get over bet put all in. There is not an easy decision at all, especially near the money. Even if he just has overs and a flush draw we have to dodge a TON of cards, and our hand isn’t going to improve anymore. We don’t have a full house redraw or any other safety net. Now even if V himself has the flush draw, there is zero way he can call. Unless he has A6 or AK of hearts. That’s about all I can imagine. And he doesn’t have AK.

If he does call, and he has 99, and he holds up and wins, that isn’t the point. The point is that he isn’t committed yet, but any further action will. So if there’s any time we CAN get him off his hand, it is now. If he makes the call with 99 and wins, good for him. Like I said, we are no longer playing our cards here for value, we are playing the player, and I cannot see how any other move here other than putting him all-in would be best. If he can handle the anguish and discomfort from the decision, and he’s gutsy enough to make the call with his pair, good for him. Like I said, it does not matter anymore if our cards are best or not right now. This is all about applying max pressure in the perfect spot. (Not to mention we have a few outs in case we are behind, but like I said this doesn’t matter.)

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I agree with putting v all in here but I think they call with any overpair not just aa or kk.

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I second to City and Groundhog.. It would take a lot for me to even start considering laying down my mid pocket pair as a short stack in this spot.. 17k to win 28 and get back to resteal stack.. Short of flopping trips, this flop is about as good as it gets for 66-99 range, so it would be an easy decision.

That being said, I would lead out a little shy of pot, 7500 to 8k and call a shove of course.

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general johnson jameson Reply:
September 24th, 2010 at 11:52 am

Ok I’m gonna pick on you for a second. Check this out:

If we bet that amount or less, then we are trying to bet this hand for value when we don’t have any. We have a measly pair of 4s and a long shot gutter ball. The problem rests in the fact that because of pot and V stack sizes, there’s almost no way we can fold. Now, there are 3 types of hands V has that everyone seems to agree on:

(1) 2 overs. If we value bet this for over half pot, these are going to fold. (2)But if they are hearts, and he wants to play, he is going to shove because he’s not paying to only see 1 card. But now our value bet was silly, because we didn’t pressure him, HE put the pressure on US, and now WE are having to dodge a lot of outs now, and worst of all though now there is no way he can fold. And now we’re just relying on a pair of 4s, with a straight draw that could only be drawing to 3 outs instead of 4. Really? This is not value.

(3) 88-TT. If we value bet, these are at the very least calling, but most likely he is shoving. This is where the focus of the discussion is though…

So. If we value bet, there is a chance it is all going in under all situations, and in them we are either dodging a lot of cards, or completely behind, we don’t want this, we want folds, because remember we are trying to value bet a hand that has no value. If we value bet, we can only get a fold from 33% of the possible scenarios.

BUT! If we put him all in right now, under no possible circumstance can he continue with anything under (1), so that takes care of those. (assuming he’s not the type to call all in with KJo of course.) The real key here is that if we shove, and put the fullest pressure on, there is a decent chance we can get him to fold 88-TT here. And THIS is the whole point of putting him all in. If he has the better hand and it wins, that cannot be of concern, because we aren’t folding anyway. The point is that putting him to the ultimate test right here will get folds from 66% and possibly 100% sometimes, where value betting will only get 33%, and then we have no value to rely on in the other 66.

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samo Reply:
September 24th, 2010 at 2:30 pm

I disagree. A shove with this board from a fairly agg player is very unlikely to fold-out 88-TT. In fact, it make give the illusion that Hero is on the draw.

I like the less than pot lead as well. It shows we are committed, appears stronger, and is more likely to fold-out the non-heart overs.

Good discussion.

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I think all comments are valid so far – but I’m with the all in crowd. It looks a little brash for sure, but putting him to a decision for everything right now seems like the best play in my opinion.

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I’d lead for $6.5k.

Like others, I believe that over-cards dominate the V range. Since the V is relatively short-stacked, I think they would have played pps more aggressively PF as implied odds were not a factor. This is especially true vs. an agg opponent. Thus, while flopping a set is possible, it is unlikely imo.

A check turns control over to the V, and of course the risk of an over-card to our 44 is great. Planning to CR would also be risky as hand may get checked to the turn.

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I voted Lead – call, but I think I agree with General’s take on this.

You have to lead, otherwise I think he’s gotta shove regardless of what he has which puts you in decision making mode with no real read.

If you lead you are going to get 2.6 – 1 odds to call if he shoves anyway.

As for what he’s holding, I think most of the time he raises preflop with a hand here that’s ahead of you, meaning you are probably still ahead against 2 overs.

If you just shove now, from his perspective you might seem stronger than you actually are plus it forces him to make the ultimate decision.

Either way even if you lose you are still in good shape.

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I lead-call every time in this spot. Chances are very low that the flop helped our opponent and I don’t need to find out if the turn will. Given the flop and our P/F aggression, I’m committed to my PP for this hand.
I don’t really care if we put V all in or just bet enough that we’re priced in if he shoves – either has essentially the same effect of applying max pressure.

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