Daily Hand Quiz

general johnson jameson Reply:
September 20th, 2010 at 1:14 pm

I get that you want the hard facts like chip position, rate of busts, etc. But really, those details aren’t as important in this situation, as we can probably deduce about where we’re at, and more importantly: where we will be very shortly. Let me crunch a few numbers for you to give you a very clear idea:

Let’s assume our table doesn’t break, and we get fill-ins. Also assume that what I describe here is going on at all table’s not just this one. (As it should and will be.) Now lets say that in the next few hands…

SB busted to C.
BB busted to D.
A busted to B, C, or D.

C now is at 12k. D is now at 11k. B is now at 36k. (or C at 16k, or D at 15k)

Now, we are 3 closer to the money, but we are now one of the short stacks! Yes we moved closer by folding, but now we’re closer to the bottom, because the chips went to the people we didn’t want to get them! If B busted all 3 of them, that would be best. But lets say he has adopted a fold to the money mentality: Instead C or D busted A. They are now higher than us! We have inched 3 closer to the money, but we have actually dropped in position! And this is just by what has happened at our table, let alone the chip movements at all tables! Jesus, what if B started bleeding chips too… Our 16k isn’t looking hot at all now, because everyone else is going to be able to fold into the money too right? Wrong. We will have to start playing. See how current position and whatnot doesn’t really matter now?

It is nice when the short stacks become so desperate that they have to start turning the guns on themselves, but remember that they can’t both lose. And the result of these kinds of showdowns is that our stack looks less and less impressive with each one. This is what Morat was explaining in his comment, and this math shows why (s)he is right, and folding 99 here is wrong.

The scary part of my example is that it isn’t far off, and it is quite accurate. The chips are going to have to exchange hands. Eventually a guy will shove his A6, and a guy will have no choice but to call all-in with A4, and desperation will again have worked itself out naturally. But by not playing we are just slowly sinking in hopes that others will die before we do, instead of taking the chance at treading water.

Theoretically, you could finish 2nd in a tournament of 10,000(!!) people by doing nothing but stealing the blinds 1 time every rotation. Think about that. I say this for 1 reason: We MUST play some way or another to survive, but the actual play itself can be the absolute minimum and we’d still make it. Minimal Play > No play.

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Major Dude Reply:
September 20th, 2010 at 5:16 pm

Hey, we can make some assumptions and almost answer your questions. (Spoiler alert: this really shores up the “Play It!” camp.)

- If the top 28 places qualify, let’s assume that we’re talking about the top 10% of the field, so 280 people bought in.

- Let’s assume that starting stacks were either 1000 chips or 1500.

- If so, then total chips in the tourney were either 280k or 420k

- In that case, average stack size right now is either about 8k or 12k

- In that case, we are at a freakishly short-stacked table. We’re the biggest guppy in this fish tank, but our 16K is not so awesome relative to the rest of the field.

- Unless all our table’s short stacks are obligingly busted out by big stacks in a hurry, there’s a lot more poker to be played.

On this hand, we’re probably ahead prefolop (by a little) . . . and we can play it to the river without ever needing to risk all our chips (or even 1/3 of them) if a big stack decides to bully us.

Upshot: it isn’t likely to get any better than this. And there aren’t likely to be many more short stacks at other tables who can bring the tourney to an end in a hurry

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general johnson jameson Reply:
September 20th, 2010 at 12:37 pm

Wow. This nails every one of my initial thoughts after I read the hand. Thanks for saving me some time to type

Also, there’s no need to worry about what the blinds are going to do. Unless they have QQ+ I don’t think they’re doing anything, and if they have a hand, it doesn’t matter cuz they were getting involved no matter what we chose to do.

I’m really shocked at the number of comments who think they can fold into the money here. We may have a large stack compared to the table, but compared to the blinds it is zilch. The only luxury we have right now is we can be just a tad more picky with our hands since we have an extra rotation or 2 to wait. You know how we know we have a small stack? Because a short stack just opened all-in, and the pot is already bigger than 1/3 of our stack. The guy who has 32k at the table, he MIGHT be able to fold into it. We can’t. And risking 3k to win 6k with a hand that against the pushers range is HUGE, we need to do. Would you rather be the short stack having to shove any crap ace or king, or would you rather be the guy with the stack who gets to call it with pocket 9s? I know what I’d rather have. Obviously neither of these situations are that grand, because a short stack at 8M is no much easier than a short stack at 3M. Let’s not wish we had those 99 when we are forced to open shove J2.

Ask yourself this: If this folded to us on the button instead, what would you have done? If your answer is anything but shove on the blinds, you’re wrong. And having a caller then is worse, because the range of a caller, is a lot tighter and worse than the range of the open shover E. It is unconscionable to open fold 99 on the button in the name of “making the money.” Play the hand.

Call, but not without a sigh.

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Waste_of_Paint Reply:
September 20th, 2010 at 2:40 pm

I am with the Moral/General contingent of being utterly bemused by the fold advocators. For me this is the easiest quiz I have ever seen on here.

The fact that villain has a TAG image is really nether here nor there – he has 4xBB plus change and it’s folded to him on the cut-off. He can increase his stack by 70% just by stealing the blinds – his shoving range here is almost ATC.

This is a great spot for a call and in the very unlikely event we’re crushed or in the unfortanately event we get outdrawn we still have a good stack. Pick it off.

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