Daily Hand Quiz

Well I’m not really worried about him having 9/J for a straight. So all I’m really concerned with is the flush. I would think villain would have bet when we checked the turn, unless he did have a flush and was being sneaky. I’m not sure, I think I call here most of the time and if he has the flush then so be it. But I think a good portion of the time he shows up here with something like KQ, QJ, Q10.

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I think this is a fold. I would have check-called the river, hoping to prevent a possible bluff.

V is committing their stack at this stage of the tourney and a move like this has to be respected imo. Hero does not have a read on the V. This could be a bluff or trap, simply too costly to find out.

I tend to think that a bluff would have committed/shoved the turn, foregoing the additional value that a strong hand might extract on the river.

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Nelson Reply:
September 16th, 2010 at 12:12 pm

True Samo true. It is early and maybe your right about him committing his whole stack – there is a chance we’re beat. Gotta say this would be a pretty tough fold though personally.

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Other than just winning the blinds we got exactly what we wanted. Our only problem now is that the board is dripping wet, and he’s saying we’re beat. A few things: 1) The blinds are 15/30. All of the hands that connect big with that board are hands people will play regardless if we raise or not. I’ll gladly invest 90 chips out of my 3,000 with my J9s for the chance to have a hand that will take a stack. Those are the only types of hands that are worth playing at these stages. Otherwise the blinds just simply aren’t high enough to even bother playing for. We flopped a dream set, but there aren’t enough high cards out there to justify continuing. The only thing we can do is prevent the draws, which we did, but he called anyway. Literally every draw got there in the end, so there’s nothing we can do about that. 2) We aren’t beating anything. I’m not sure why we bet on the river. This guy could easily have some kind of 75s, J9s, any 2 baby connected spades, or even a set bigger than ours. These are all hands people will play early on in the hopes of taking a stack, which if we call this guy will, and his decision to call a raise with T9 spades is perfectly scripted. 3) The pot is way too big for what the blinds are. Unless I have an utter monster, I’m not playing a pot of 176 BB, with that board, holding bottom set. 4) What are we hoping for here? That he is going completely nuts with QT or AQ on that board? Or that he’s putting himself at risk with a busted draw of some sort? This is too far fetched to call, considering the danger zone we are in of what beats us. And if he really is the kind of guy that goes nuts with QT, we’ll easily get those chips back later when the clouds are a little clearer and we can nail him. Also notice that the only mistake we made was betting the river, which was severely detrimental as now showdown has become too expensive, AND we don’t get to see what he had, when we could have just checked, and called a bet for the same price and gotten to see his goods. In fact, he may have even bet smaller than ours just to guarantee at least some kind of river value, as our 2 consecutive checks look very very weak.

It sucks to flop a sexy set just to fold it, but we still have to when we know we are beat. If this was a full house it would be harder to talk about folds, but a set is a set, and still vulnerable to way too much on boards like that. We are still healthy after this hand, but we won’t be if we get stupid and call. Like the Facts of Life said: take the good and take the bad, bite your lip, and make a disciplined fold.

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Pirate21 Reply:
September 16th, 2010 at 2:42 pm

Agree with General here.
I hate folding the set, but if we listen to what V is telling us we’re behind 75+% of the time.

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Nelson Reply:
September 16th, 2010 at 2:46 pm

Damn General – you should be a commentator/host or have your own book or something. You must have a bracelet at least right? You are so spot on its ridiculous. I feel like if I had your insight on every hand I played I’d be rich by now. Keep the good advice coming!

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general johnson jameson Reply:
September 16th, 2010 at 3:33 pm

Thank you for the kind words, but I promise you I make just as many mistakes as all players. Remember that I have the benefit of being able to look at this and think about it for a few minutes, rather than getting much less time actually in the moment. I think I get better by talking things out, and most of what I type is me actually just talking to myself, that’s why it gets so long and possibly incoherent. If it helps others, I’m happy, because I was able to benefit from the contributions of others as well.

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b1aze Reply:
September 16th, 2010 at 4:37 pm

I agree completely here. I feel that i can analyze really really well in this sort of situation, but in the heat of the moment, i make a ton of mistakes and, usually, -ev moves where when reviewing, i do the face-palm and say WTF.

Pirate21 Reply:
September 16th, 2010 at 6:54 pm

LOL – I’m so with you b1aze.
I can’t count the number of times I’ve called…knowing I’m surely beat….only to be shown exactly the hand I though my opponent had…and then cursed myself because I was too damn stubborn to accept it…

If villain has a flush here, he made some big rookie mistakes: calling the flop with very bad odds, failing to get value on the turn, and possibly a rather questionable call preflop with two players left to act.
I don’t know how many players play that badly in a $300 buy-in. Not over 50% I reckon.

I also think we have been rather generous in assigning ourselves a TAG image since we haven’t actually showed down a hand, and the blinds haven’t even changed yet. I don’t think people are treating our plays with more than average respect.

All in all I think we can be up against much more than a flush here – including a better set, but also 2pr, TPGK, air.
If we are beaten, we still have something left to work with as the blinds are still in the first level.

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general johnson jameson Reply:
September 16th, 2010 at 3:57 pm

The first part of this comment is important to remember. If he has a baby flush, despite him actually winning the hand, he made more mistakes than we did. And if we had checked the river, and even folded, we would have made zero mistakes, and he completely played the hand wrong. Even calling a small river value bet wouldn’t have given him enough implied to make the flop call not a mistake. Just a good reminder that sometimes playing near-mistake free still doesn’t get a win.

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Pirate21 Reply:
September 16th, 2010 at 6:56 pm

Ahhh…. but by minimizing your loss, you have still won (classic Slansky…Theory of Poker)

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