Daily Hand Quiz

As underrepped as our hand is here, I think we get a ton of value from lower aces that we would miss if we checked.

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Punch it one-way to valuecity. Our hand is fully concealed since we flat called preflop. We are only losing to a Q, or 99, or 33. 33 is highly unlikely, as there is no reason he would bet the turn instead of just getting to showdown as cheap as possible with all of the overs. 99 is pretty unlikely, and if that’s what he has, he is going to let us know real fast. If he has a Q, I don’t know why he would check the flop with a TAG face and a club draw on the board. I’d imagine he’d try and get 3 streets of value out of it.

So that’s it. Everything else we are beating, and the number of hands that will call us that we are beating damn near triples the amount that will call that we are losing to. Any TT, JJ, KK, maybe even 66-88 I could see taking a stab on the turn. But I don’t know why they’d check the flop, unless truly worried about queen. But we checked twice, our hand is so hidden. We also will get called by any Ace here, all the way down to A2 off. Because almost all aces here are going to be a chop, the only ones that are not are AT+. Everything A9- is a chop, which is like ALL of our ace range since we didn’t 3 bet, we checked twice, and called the ace turn.

I’m gonna lead here for damn near pot. Probably a hefty 3/4. This is because if he has no hand at all, he isn’t going to even call a min-bet, let alone a 3/4. If he DOES have a hand that can call, it is HIGHLY likely in that range of hands that will call big, because there isn’t a lot it is probably losing to (given our range, and how we’ve played the hand). If we knew a bit more about the BTN player, we may even be able to overbet this for value. Like I said, the hands that can call us are strong enough to call very big, so lets go for the fat pot here. If he has the 99 or AQ here, he will let us know, but even a KQ or QJ may not be able to r/r our bet, as we are betting with the knowledge of him maybe having a Q too, and with the possibility we played a Q9 or Q3s, or 33. Highly unlikely we are getting r/r here even by a Q.

All aboard!

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I’m leading here tho I don’t particularly care for the oop flat call pre flop. If we check it will be harder to put v on a hand when they bet.

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im checking for a couple of reasons. one is that a check gets the bulk of his range to take a shot, thinking we’re probably weak and he can take it down. a lot of his range might fold if we lead. lets take advantage of his aggressiveness. the other thing is pot control in case he is slow playing a queen…which is certainly a possibility.

if you lead and he raises, then what? he’s an aggressive player…he bet the turn, he might want to continue representing a queen, or he might actually have it.

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general johnson jameson Reply:
September 13th, 2010 at 4:19 pm

I seem to be in the minority of the choices, so help me out, maybe i’m missing something when I look at it all. What has he done that could possibly make us think he is more likely to make a bet than call a bet? He has shown no real aggression yet. He made a cookie cutter raise when it folded to him on the button (this can be done very light), he didn’t C-bet, and his feeler turn bet was pretty piddly and weak. The odds of him having a Q or 99 are very small, so small in fact we shouldn’t really consider them. Which means we have the best hand. In addition, the amount of hands that will call us are huge: 88, TT, JJ, KK, Any ace will call. Our hand is so disguised that we will get a call from anything almost. If he thinks we’re weak, and he has a made hand, why wouldn’t he just check behind and save cash? I guess I’m failing to see why we would possibly think he would bet his JJ instead of calling with it.

If he r/r, well then so be it, but the rare instance that he flops trips should not stop us from getting max value from what is a hugely disguised hand against a massive number of hands that he would call with. How come we should be cautious or passive here and check?

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I’d normally check to induce a bet, but I think we may lose a bit of value, not only if the V does not bet, but more importantly the bet size itself. Agree with General that the lead can be substantial, i.e. close to pot-size, since most Ax are calling.

Based on the line, I doubt that the V has a queen. They checked the flop with 2 clubs, and bet ~1/2 pot on the turn with 2 cards now in the zone. I also believe a hefty lead by a TAG opponent will deter a bluff attempt.

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samo Reply:
September 13th, 2010 at 8:36 am

oops, I had the images mixed … still leading, perhaps for a smaller amount.

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Pretty sure I’m checking the river to induce a bet from lesser holdings. I’m likely min check/raising his would-be river bet and reconsidering with a fold to a shove.

What makes us SO certain we’re ahead here? He’s a TAG – most TAGs I know certainly raise a folded pot as a steal, but have a ton of queens in their ranges. It’s marginal whether I raise or check / call the river bet. I don’t think I’m getting lesser Aces to call a sizable river bet.

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If we lead, we are going to fold out almost all of V bluffing range. At this point, a TAG will probably stab with any PP, since we really look a lot like a whiffed flush draw. We see ourselves as “Aggressive” though? This is so opposite spectrum for what we are supposed to be playing as far as image, that this really might stir some of the observant players up if we end up check-3betting OTR. Thinking back again, i think our lead may even look like a whiffed flush draw. I dont see how we could expect to check-3bet and be called by much that we beat, so if we lead here for, say 2500, that gives V 7500 to potentially overshove with, which is about what the pot would currently be.

Lead for ~2500, not sure about an overshove though.

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I would lead every time in this spot. I think a TAG player’s range for taking a stab at the river is way smaller than his range for calling our suspicious-looking large value bet. The idea of flatting AK pre flop, checking a pretty harmless flop, check-calling a weak turn bet when our A has hit and letting it check down on the river seems like too much of a missed opportunity to me. If we get raised, we fold.

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