Daily Hand Quiz

BB is clearly not afraid of a call from atleast CO, so he has to have some sort of a hand. We are decently behind if either player holds any of our cards while the other has any pocket pair. Snapfold and take a note on what CO is 3betting with, as he will be snapcalling the BB shove.

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Are we behind? Perhaps. Are we getting the odds to call? Absolutely. If we’re going to fold premium starting hands we are going to have trouble getting respect for our raises. Plus since bb raise amount was less than co raise amount I believe we are safe from additional raising pf. This is a great oppty to collude with another big stack and knock out bb. Omg we might even improve our hand.

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b1aze Reply:
September 9th, 2010 at 6:48 am

Do we really want to be playing AKhigh 3way with only 1PSB behind on the flop? If we flop a pair, be it A or K, are we committing the rest of our chips? Who says CO is going to want to check it down? I think that there are far too many bleh situations that can and most likely will arise if we can and do only just flat here and see a flop. Assuming CO is not trying to 3bet-steal light, and is 3betting with top 5% of hands (88+, AJs+, KQs, AKo) and BB is 4bet shoving with even tighter, (99+, AKs), our equity is only 26% which makes calling a break even play at best, which is CLEARLY not a +$ev situation to be getting into coming into the money on a rebuy bubble which are notoriously higher payouts for the bottom end (assuming we didnt spaz a ton and rebuy 5+ times). To win tournaments, Hero needs to be able to lay down premium hands when the situation itself is not premium.

Just my .02

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_CityBorn_ Reply:
September 9th, 2010 at 12:05 pm

im with you on this b1aze. almost always either a bad or a meh situation postflop. break even ev calls where youre out of position and up against multiple tough players showing strength is not the way to go. the situation as a whole is much more of a consideration than looking at just the starting hand in a vacuum.

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general johnson jameson Reply:
September 9th, 2010 at 9:57 pm

It is a nice idea, but a 42,000 chip pot is not going to get even a hint of collusion from anyone who has a made hand.

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Interesting situation. I’m not looking to go broke here nearing the money with the stack that I currently have. I voted call as we are getting nearly 3-1 on our money here. I could also be calling here with AA or KK here hoping to induce a raise from the CO just to balance my raise in the times he does decide to come over the top which I don’t think he’ll do very often, obviously villian dependent. Raising just commits to much where you can’t fold if you get re-raised. I think taking a conservative line here is the optimal play. Just my two cents…

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Moe D Reply:
September 9th, 2010 at 6:37 am

Can the CO re-raise? His raise size is not enough to reopen the raise. In the case it’s just an easy call.

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don Reply:
September 9th, 2010 at 8:28 am

’nuff said

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I voted Raise / Fold to Shove.
I think it’s likely we’re behind one or both, but we do have a premium drawing hand and I’d sure like to see a flop. I’d just be looking to check it down post-flop unless we hit the board huge.

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b1aze Reply:
September 9th, 2010 at 7:57 am

What are you possibly raising to that CO wouln’t be shoving over? There is nothing in our range that we should be 5bet/folding with. Ever. If you make it 40k to go, that will make the pot just over 70k, laying CO 2.3:1 odds on a call and literally pot committing him preflop, so he might as well shove over and hope for your fold, which you said you would. Making it 30k to go is just a 2x 5bet, leaving CO 3:1 odds and dropping 40% of his stack preflop, so, again, would probably just overshove. I dont ever ever ever see how you would want to 5bet/fold here, and if you are going to 5bet/call, you might as well shove to try to isolate.

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Pirate21 Reply:
September 9th, 2010 at 10:16 am

Yeah…you’re absolutely right.
When I read Raise / Fold, I was THINKING Call / Fold to a Raise.
What I meant to be saying is that I would call hoping to flop well and just check it down.

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Pirate21 Reply:
September 9th, 2010 at 12:31 pm

Thinking about this spot a little more…

By well-respected online player – would we read that he’s more likely or less likely to check it down? I’m thinking more likely that he’d check it down rather than bet into a dry side pot (unless he has the nuts).
If I don’t think he’ll check it down, I may be more inclined to fold now and avoid the akward post-flop OOP situation.

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general johnson jameson Reply:
September 9th, 2010 at 9:54 pm

If the pot was like 10k, people would check it down. But the pot just with 3 calling is going to be larger than half of our stacks. And if that flop comes out dry under cards, we have to check, and CO isn’t going to check his over pair if he has it. The pot here is simply too big to check down. If we hit our K would we check it down? Absolutely not. So why would we expect CO to do the same when the board flops huge in his favor?

I think I like your fold idea

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Despite the $ bubble approaching, I can’t see Hero not calling. It is unlikely we are up against AA or KK, and hand strength is likely under-estimated due to agg image.

Yes, Hero does not have a made hand, but obviously ahead of all other Ax which at least one opponent may be holding. Even against 2 pps, Hero call would be at ~3-1.

Clearly need to be careful post-flop and avoid trouble, but that should not be a deterrent to seeing a flop. Hero has constructed this image in hopes of taking advantage of a premium hand.

Raising – I don’t believe Hero is allowed, but if so I would not because big-stacked V still not priced-out. Too close to bubble to be investing chips w/o a made hand, albeit a premium.

Fold – weak imo, given the possibility that Villains have misread Hero hand strength.

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Eeeek. I had to read it twice. Here’s what I think: There are a few things that I really, really don’t like. 1) we are heads up with a huge stack nearing the bubble. 2) We will have to play out of position. 3) If we call, and CO calls, the main pot is already larger than half our stack. I don’t see any collusion going on here just to get rid of a guy. Thats a huge pot to just check down. 4) BB says he has the goods, right after CO said he did. It is HIGHLY LIKELY we are behind the pair of one of these guys, and the other has some of our outs. 5) Our hand. It looks like this is a no brainer call to see a flop, but there is a problem with that. AK benefits from seeing all 5 cards, not just 3. A hole pair benefits from only seeing 3, because then you can charge people to see more. It doesn’t need to improve, it just needs to prevent and that is easy. AK needs all 5 horribly because we have to improve, and we need all 5 to maximize that chance. It seems very poor to invest 11,000 more here just to see a flop, and if it misses all under cards, we have to check, and if CO shoves his 99 over pair, we have to fold. So we invest 11k more for 60% of maximizing the hand? Poor. 6) The Math. I use the PokerCruncherPro app for iphone. If we give CO a range of 88+, AJs+, AQo+, and BB a range of TT+, AQs+, AQo+, and we run our hand against all 3 of these SEEING ALL 5 BOARD CARDS, we are only a 26% to win. Which means we aren’t getting the price to even see the whole board, let alone just the flop which we are a 20%. 7) Lastly, what are we hoping for here? CO to have AQ and BB to have AJ? That’s not likely, and even if it were so, we are only a 54% to win, and this is literally the best case scenario. I could go on but this is enough.

We have 80,000 chips, and near the bubble we should be looking for investments to pick off these smaller stacks at a good price, or bullying these mid-stacks. We shouldn’t be investing huge amounts in these multi-way gamble situations. There are WAY better uses for our chips at this stage of the tourney than to get stupid right here. Why are the huge stacks turning guns on each other? Did we really build this beautiful of a stack just to get to the bubble and use it to create main and side pots that are bigger than our stack? Come on. We raised like we should have with the AK, and we ran into crazy resistance. Folding here means we didn’t make any mistakes, which means the villains didn’t gain. Let this go, and let CO take his shot.

The other case would be for raising all-in to isolate, which is scary, because we’d be risking like ~60k, just to win 30k, and if CO has the goods too and wasn’t fibbing, we just crippled ourself to become the bubble. REAL SMART. Not only that, but we are only a 50% against BB range if the iso is successful.

Fold, and fold again.

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Waste_of_Paint Reply:
September 9th, 2010 at 11:31 pm

On that last point General, because it is something that crossed my mind… what do you think CO would need to call a shove? If the quiz was the same, but we were in the CO with QQ and the hero of this quiz shoved, would you call off the last 66k of your stack close to the bubble? Seems to me they’d need KK/AA to make the call, which is unlikely given our hand.

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general johnson jameson Reply:
September 10th, 2010 at 8:55 am

It is a good question. One thing we gotta remember is that a lot of these discussions are fact based, rather than feel based because it is hard to provide those details. Like, how often has the CO been 3 betting us all day? If this is literally the first time he’s done it, we better respect it. But if he’s been doing it ever other rotation, you know he’s light and we can bust him in the cookie jar. We don’t have any feel based details, so we have to take his actions as not getting out of line. And to be honest, him 3 betting us both as huge stacks seems like a bad idea, unless he has the goods. I usually don’t see people doing this light in this scenario. Again, why are the big stacks turning guns on each other?

You have a good question though. Besides AA KK, if I were him I may even fold QQ here. CO is still sailing on 70,000 chips. But here we go again with feel: how often have I 3 bet him, how has he previously responded to other’s 3 bets, and what has he shown down with EP raises. Obviously these 3 questions heavily sway our answer. But using only the hard facts we have, I would say fold to the shove, unless we have primo goods. QQ he could call, it is hard to look at that and not imagine you have the best hand. But we’ve all been dealt AK vs AA and KQ vs KK before, and it isn’t fun. It is in my very amateur opinion that his 3 bet in this spot generally means (in my experience) he has something very tasty, and when 3 betting the big stack, he is probably prepared for an aggressive response.

But us as the EP player, unless this guy is super nit or total maniac we have to play it at face value, and I’d say don’t take a chance, which means as the CO player I’d probably not take a chance. If only we knew the feel based details

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