Daily Hand Quiz

im calling. considering he’s lag, we’re probably ahead, but id still rather not get reraised if hes got a pair. he couldve taken a free flop pf, but raised 6x which seems like big cards or pairs that would rather not see a flop. flatting here can get air to bet again on the turn if hes got big cards. im not really worried about him drawing out with overs, he’d have 4 outs in that case. ill give him a chance to hang himself if hes got air, and see if my draws complete to pull ahead of a bigger pair if hes ahead. call the whole way, raise the river if i get there.

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Well, I’ll just assume those are meant to be raise or call. First things up: Our “very aggressive” image just limped, and then flat called a hefty 6x raise. This alone will put the BB on caution. His flop bet is also hefty to price out draws. It can mean anything from an over pair to a little-stronger-than-normal standard c-bet. Unfortunately for him though, we are drawing to a sick 17 outs assuming he just has the over pair, he could bet the pot and we still aren’t going anywhere. I put his range at KJ+, 88+. Possibly even 55+. His pre bet sure seemed like it didn’t want a caller, and his hefty flop bet doesn’t seem like it wants a caller either. There’s no need to try and get draws to fold with a huge price. There is a lower price you can bet that still gives them the temptation to call at a bad price. If we get priced out and fold, we aren’t given the opportunity to make a mistake. His bets just really seem like he wants us to go away.

We have 2 paths I think: We can r/r him right here on the flop, and if that doesn’t get him to fold right now then he will most likely only call. I don’t think he can come over the top, he is already cautious and on guard from our limp/call. This will allow us to probably see a free river if we miss our turn, as I don’t see any way he can bet into us again on the turn after this play. The r/r here should be done only if we would rather see a free river than pay for it, I can almost guarantee this will get us a free river card. The down side of this route, is that if we hit, we aren’t going to get paid off at all. Scared players that get more and more scared every street have almost zero potential to put more money in.

The other is to just call here. But then what? unless the turn is a non club disconnected brick under card to his over pair, or he hits is AQ+, he probably isn’t going to bet again. And these are few cards. If he checks the turn, I’m guessing he’s given up on the hand and our 8s are probably good. If he has something and isn’t afraid of us, he will fire again. But then what? Raising could be disastrous. If he has the guts to fire again on the turn, that means he probably has a hand and isn’t kidding, and he surely will have the guts to come over the top of us at that point to shut it down. That’s too much risk. So we are forced to just call again. But now say we whiff the river too. If he fired the turn, our 8s are probably no good. Which means we can only win the pot by getting him to fold on the river, but if it comes out another disconnected non-club, I’m not sure what we can represent that will get a fold without risking way too many chips just in hopes of a fold. Even a high river card wouldn’t scare a flop over pair, there’s no reason for us to chase all the way to the end just to hit an ace. And us hitting those high cards are already unlikely since we limped in, instead of “very aggressive” open raising pre. If we whiff the river, and he fires a 3rd, can we really call with a pair of 8s? I think we have to fold. If he checks, do we risk a ton of chips to fold him out? Or check behind and pray the 8s are good when they probably aren’t?

I have no answer to this problem. Both of these routes are pretty miserable. And you know why? I hope someone else notices this: Instead of going severely against our image and limp/calling, if we had just open raised this for 3x, and played our very aggressive image like usual, our hand would have been unbelievably disguised, and if our draws hit, we would have gotten PAID. This guy wants us to go away, which means he has a hand he cares about. But instead we get stupid and passive, and just limp/call, which totally sets him off on alert, and like I said, scared cautious alarmed players will NEVER put more money into a pot. Sorry, but very aggressive players never limp into a pot when they are the first one in. It is such a misconception that “mixing it up” means limping instead of raising. NO! This means continue raising as usual, but do it with different hands – in this case a beautiful suited connector from MP. So when this flop rolls out, and we r/r and or fire at it, it just looks like typical business as usual with our high end cards that missed, and this guy will play ball all day along with his hand just thinking that we are hanging ourselves.

Had we just garden variety raised like our image dictates, we would have set our hand up to get paid. Instead we scared him from the get-go, and regardless if we hit or not, there is no way we can get paid. Next time, lets not get stupid and “mix it up” the wrong way.

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Haven’t read the analysis by the general yet which will probably prove me wrong as always but…

I think this is a raise, and a call if he shoves over it.

This is a scary board for your opponent, that’s how I interpret his c-bet anyway.

I assume he either has an overpair, or a draw to the nut flush (AcQc or something). In the case of an overpair we have, if I’m not mistaken, 17 outs on the turn and possibly more on the river (if turn brings 9 or 10).
If he has AcXc we lose 8 of those outs (not the 5c!) but are presently beating him.

I don’t think we get a lot of hands to fold though: v is LAG, and will have a hard time believing his KK ain’t good here.
So he will either shove here which I think is fair to call, especially in rebuy period.
Or he will call and probably slow down, checking the turn and giving you a free river should you still need it.

Now if you simply call here you NEED to hit one of your outs on the turn because I can’t imagine many cards that v will not double barrel.

And if you fold you are an idiot for calling pre-flop in the first place.

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I‘d call and play position.

Hero has plenty of outs to warrant a raise, but all of them may not be clean. V raise makes their range appear to be something like JJ- and painted cards. I think that is enough to keep them firing one more barrel on the turn. We have a pr with which to call.

Although Hero has pr and monster draw, I prefer to play a smaller pot at this stage of the tourney. Also afraid of getting 3-bet and face an over-pr club combo; too early for that rush imo.

Fold – not many flops better than this for your hand.

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Can anyone explain why raising would be bad?

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Pirate21 Reply:
August 23rd, 2010 at 2:44 pm

I don’t necessarily think raising is bad, but it might not be the optimal play depending on your philosophy and what you think the opponent has.
I’m personally not a fan of playing large, high variance pots early in a tournament unless I’m VERY confident of what my opponent has – or that I’m far ahead. In this case, I’m not confident of either. I think we might be ahead, but also could be behind with many outs. I also think some of those outs could be counterfeit.
The strength of our hand is how well it will draw with 2 cards to come. If we raise now, we give our opponent to bet again before we see the next card – thus costing us more to see the next card. IMO, this is the best argument for calling.

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lmao @ comments……….
firstly its a rebuy……you work out the rest
secondly…..this flop is why we were limping in the first place, top pair, straight flush draw, what more of a flop are we dreaming about here…..
thirdly, …if we cant gamble in this spot why are we even playing a rebuy in the first place lmao?
finally, i am chk raising flop and either re raising turn making sure i get it all in by the river….sometimes we just have to back our own hand without “worrying” what other opponent has as this is such an extremely profitable scenario should the turn and river come our way. ALL in !!!

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Agreed, rebuy plus v agro image means a simple raise may induce a shove with AJ+ type hands.

Raise all day long and call any shove. He could have higher pair and we don’t hi or his AK might hit. In that case simply rebuy.

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