Daily Hand Quiz

You are either dead to runners (less likely) or you have to fade 9-12 outs twice (more likely) so you need to Fold. Sometimes poker sucks. If one of you kings was a diamond you could call.

[Reply]

I’m calling. I don’t like putting a decent chunk of my stack in then folding in a turbo, unless I’m obviously beat

[Reply]

Rowdy Reply:
August 16th, 2010 at 5:14 am

Sorry should elaborate: It’s hard to come back in a turnbo once you lose a decent amount of your stack; also there are enough donks around who will show up with 99 no diamond, A8 no diamond etc.

[Reply]

Sux but I’d probably fold. I’d think that villain would have raised pre with any decent pocket pair like 10s, jacks, queens, so I really don’t think we’re way ahead of something like that. With that many people calling and seeing a flop I would be surprised if he showed up with something like 6 7 suited (diamonds or at least one diamond). Even if we’re ahead right now I bet we’d get drawn out on by the river. Hell, he could have even hit a set of 3s or 5s. I hate it, but I think I could let this one go and try to get my chips in later, even though its a turbo.

[Reply]

Nelson Reply:
August 16th, 2010 at 8:34 am

Oops – I meant wouldn’t be surprised – not would.

[Reply]

sigh. 99% of the time this is gonna be one of three things. 1) he flopped a baby flush and is trying to protect it. 2) he has the ace of diamonds and either an over card kicker or kicker paired board. 3) he flopped a set of 3 or 5.

it is very unlikely it is an over pair or straight draw. so that means if we call: in the first case we are a 55% to win if they only have the ace we are an actual 45% dog if their kicker has paired. in the second case we are dead to running full house cards which is 1 oit so we are a 2% favorite. in the third case we are dead to a 4% favorite. since we cant be sure of which, we have a 1/3 chance of being only a coinflip for our tournament or a 2/3 chance of drawing virtually dead. so about 1/6 of the time we should win this. gotta fold here.

unless you think this is the 1% where its not those 3 then go ahead and call.

i think its funny when people think they need to keep playing a made hand just cuz they think its still best or the other is a draw. being a significant favorite or dog doesnt matter whether you have a made hand or not. i think this mentality gets a lot of players in trouble. having a made hand meansnothing if youre still a huge dog. percentage towin means percentage to win with the cardsyou have regardless if theyre a made hand or not.

even in a turbo this is a fold.

[Reply]

_CityBorn_ Reply:
August 16th, 2010 at 10:18 am

because there are 3 possibilities he could have (in your opinion) that doesnt mean each is equally likely to occur, so saying we have a 1/3 chance of this being favorable is flawed logic.

flopping a flush is very rare. a set is more likely than the flush, but still much less likely than a draw or draw/pair combo.

this is early in a small buyin online turbo. aka donk city. you have to weigh that in before you give opp too much credit.

[Reply]

general johnson jameson Reply:
August 16th, 2010 at 4:08 pm

CityB, I should clarify: I didn’t mean to say we have a 33% chance of winning this. What I meant was that in this situation, one of the 3 scenarios (regardless of likelihood) I mentioned is almost always what we are against. There are some variations of these, like instead of Adxx, there could be 9d8h, where we have overs but there is still a diamond and 2 live cards, and we are still an exact 50% favorite.

But the reality is, despite all of them being low probability, is that almost always in this situation the opp has one of the three things I mentioned. The likelihood of something doesn’t matter once it becomes a very clear reality that it has happened and it’s being faced.

There is one other scenario, if the guy flopped 2 pair with like 85s, or 35s, but I ignored that because I don’t see anyone bothering to play an 85 or 35. The odds of flopping a flush will always be exactly the same every time, but the odds of someone playing these hands can always be skewed, and I think its low here. The irony is we actually have a half-realistic chance of beating the 2 pair scenario.

Lastly, I try to give my hand ideas without assuming the competency of the opp based on the level of tournament or buy in amount. There are no hands that do this where we are better than 50% against. The pot is giving us 1.75:1 on our money so we aren’t even breaking even. Like the guy said before, sometimes Poker sucks. Black kings on a diamond board 4 handed sucks, but sometimes you have to lay these down. What I was originally trying to say is that of the hands he is going to turn over, we have only a real shot of winning in 1 of the 3 scenarios. There’s no need to get married to a pair of kings 2 hands into a tournament facing heavy resistance in an at best perfect 50% coinflip.

Good talks.

[Reply]

Anonymous Reply:
August 16th, 2010 at 7:55 pm

all im saying is….and this is a totally different scenario but will illustrate the point: im playing 2/5 live at a casino this weekend. standard raise is 20-25. a few times someone with scared jacks or so raised to 40 and everyone folded. so this hand early position raises to 40, and gets 3 callers. this is a big hand and you know there are some premiums involved. flop comes a/j/rag. original raiser checks, next guy shoves his remaining $190 in. fold fold, original raiser calls with kk, and he’s ahead! the guy who shoved didnt show, but his rational for putting it all in without even top pair? “i almost got away with it”

_CityBorn_ Reply:
August 16th, 2010 at 7:56 pm

last reply was me

Major Dude Reply:
August 16th, 2010 at 5:22 pm

If this hand were playing 3 way, then it’s easier to conjure up ways that Villain is trying to make a move on us.

But Villain’s push is in a 5-way pot with two players yet to act. That’s a situation where reckless aggression on Villain’s part could easily be punished — and Villain should know that.

Let’s go one level deeper and think about how the hand looks from Villain’s seat. He knows we opened with a strong hand. He knows we led out strong on the flop . . . in a way that says we’re happy either to frighten out marginal hands (77; A8, etc.) or make any overpairs or good draws pay a lot to hang on.

In such a situation, it’s likely that Villain reads us as having something like Ad-XX, or JJ+. If he’s shoving all his chips in the middle, he’s likely believing that he’s strong vs. our range. He’s also willing to give up the advantage of position that he’s got against us, if he were simply to call or min-raise.

I’d expect to see either QdJd, or a set.

[Reply]

Waste_of_Paint Reply:
August 17th, 2010 at 12:08 am

I don’t think the majority of players at these buy-ins go into that level of thought, and I think this is the point CityBorn is trying to make. So many of the players in these turbo SNGs would make exactly this move with A8 no diamond, or even 66, 77 etc with a diamond. They will not even think about the fact they are five handed, they will just think “can’t…fold…top…pair… but don’t want to see another diamond or overcard hit… AWWWW IN.”

I do think villain’s range is wider than the General says it is, including complete air trying to oversteal on a scary board. I voted call… just.

I’d say there’s a pretty good likelihood we’re still ahead, but also a lot of outs left to fade in V’s range.
Seems unlikely V has flopped a flush but 2-pr and smaller sets are definitely in their range. Also, plenty of combo draws that would make for a good semi-bluff opportunity.
This early in a turbo I’d expect A8 to show up quite a bit also, but with the blinds still low, I think I’d probably let this go.

[Reply]

I’d fold.

In most cases, you are up against a set or a baby flush, with the former more likely. Sure, it could be a play by an opponent who wants to gamble early in a Turbo. However without any history on the V, I would err on the conservative side.

[Reply]

i voted call. 2 factors make the difference for me:

1) the format (small buyin turbo) means that some people will overplay hands, and act very aggressively especially in the early stages. this is a common strategy. build a big stack early or go play another one

2) i dont see how leading for 20% of your stack because you think youre ahead, and then folding could be the right move. against a pair and diamond, we’re a slight favorite, against a pair and the ace of diamonds, we’re 47% to win which still makes this a call. we’re crushed by a set or made flush, but i think those should be weighted much less likely, and so the money in the pot and format considerations make this a call for me.

[Reply]

Too early to sacrifice here. There will be other shots, just not that many. I’d fold it.

[Reply]