Daily Hand Quiz

Check obviously. He’ll only fold with hands that you beat on showdown.
Plus, you get to muck if he has a 9, so no one will know you played your QQ like a donk.

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Lol. Agreed T. At this point in the hand you want to minimize losses and cant be concerned about maximizing gains.

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While tempted to make a super-thin value bet on hopes that V has a J, I’d check it down instead.

Hero has a conservative image, so a lead is more likely than not to be called only by a winner. Limped pot and little idea of what V has could make this questionably played hand turn into a disaster. V could have 109, 98 based on the calls; could have been drawing with 8x; and could have a weak J. If that uncertain, check it and hope to pick-up a very nice pot.

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Yep, I agree with the general consensus here.
Way too many hands in V’s range that beat us here and very few worse hands that will call – it’s just not worth another bet here.

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Easy quiz. Check and rake it in.

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I agree with checking, but do you guys really think we’re behind here?

V’s line has been ultra wimpy and since we’re “a little conservative” wouldn’t you expect V to at least lead the river if he made trips, 2p or a straight??

I think V can pretty easily expect us to check behind if he doesn’t fire the river so if he has any hand looking to extract value, he’d take the initiative.

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lmao. we have committed 480k out of our starting 838k into a Jack high pot which id say our opp has a drawing hand since it was never re raised and if he thinks he had best hand i’m 100% sure he would have put more pressure on us during the hand and i smell fear and weakness in chk calling and after chking river i am shoving this guy to put him off his hand !! whatever he’s holding i am taking my chances to win this tourny right here by making him fold or extracting max value, either way if he calls with Jack its a bonus and if he folds he’ll never know what we had!! win win……if we check and lose on showdown we are crippled with 380k so i say GO FOR IT!!

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T Reply:
August 12th, 2010 at 8:34 pm

838k is our stack on the river.

You should be suspicious of this sort of play on the bubble. Villain made it far so we should give him credit for his play. He will usually be reluctant to check/call down Jx here, which is pretty much what your bet would rely on.

It rather looks to me like v had a lucky flop for an unremarkable hand, and is now milking us. Since the board is so dry he can be doing this with 2pr (in which case he may well have a boat by now). He can also have T8 of course.
While these hands are not likely in itself they are the only hands that take him to the river IMO. Unless he is a donk who got incredibly lucky leaving 6953 people behind him, that is.

Moral: if you limp a premium hand, you should be more ready to fold it when there is resistance.

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general johnson jameson Reply:
August 14th, 2010 at 12:22 am

Be careful applying your moral there… we haven’t exactly met resistance yet. While an opponent check calling all the way down to the river is a subtle mysterious sign of strength, it also represents a hell of a lot of weakness. 95% of the time it represents a hand that just wants to see free cards. If he had the goods he would have check raised at any point with a good hand on such a dangerous board that meshes nicely with what he perceives our limped range to be. More often than not these callers usually have a pair + combo draw of some sort. Not to mention, this guy’s image is “splashy”, and he is literally doing that right now by calling so much, so why should we interpret his actions as anything but just spewing chips around while he has a significant lot of them? If he had the goods on the river he would bet it. If he had the goods at any point he would check raise and end it with a dangerous board.

This is not resistance because he has not voluntarily put a single dime into the pot that wasn’t forced to stay in. His blind was forced, his calling was forced, and he checked the river, all by a guy with a splashy image. If we got check raised at any point, getting away from queens is a good idea. We have no reason to think we have been resisted or ousted from the driver’s seat.

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Personally I’m also going for the win here. I don’t really want to show down my QQ for free and let everybody and their mother know how bad I played it. If you win this pot with the check, you’re still only standing on a little over 2mil (M is 138K, so about 3.5M over the avg stack). If you shove and he calls you with his JQ/JK/JA, you end up with 3.6mil which will make you very comfortable with not a ton of play left in this thing before the final table.

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I’m really shocked no one has bothered to talk about what villain thinks WE have. All I have seen is a lot of talk about what we think they have. Our limping was absolutely stupid, but we did it for a reason – to disguise our holding. It is very likely he hit the Jack, and has some kind of combo draw that didn’t get there. Even if he has J7 or J6, the river 9 is our dream card. The only thing we are losing to is a 9 or T8, or in a rare case he checked 66 or 77 out of the blinds. If he had these, he would have check raised at some point on such a scary draw board, especially when we limp in, which he puts us on some kind of low cards probably that connect nicely with that board.

If he had any hand that was worth a damn, he would have bet on the river. The only time someone checks on the river with a monster is 1) against a super aggressive opponent who is likely to bet a third time, 2) against a player who has likely missed a lot of draws and their only attempt at winning is to bluff, or 3) they are truly convinced that the player behind them is more likely to make a bet than to call a bet.

we can cross 1 off because we aren’t a super aggro opponent that will guarantee fire a third. we can cross 2 off because we bet the entire way so it is likely we have something more than ace high. and we can cross off 3 because since we have bet the whole way we are saying we have something, and from the opponents eyes, he thinks that since we have something, we more than likely would call his bet if he made one. Also, him check calling all the way down is a subtle sign of strength, but not enough to scare away a call if he bets, but also enough to get us to check behind him in fear, so if he had the goods he would bet the river. we can cross off 3.

crossing off all 3 of those leads me to think his draw didn’t finish and he is stuck with a pair of jacks and is hoping to get it down for cheap. the only things we are losing to here are T8, a 9, or 77 or 66. These are all so unlikely that I think we need to thin value bet this river. This is a huge leak in players that won’t do this. It is HIGHLY unlikely he puts us on an over pair, he likely thinks we were betting with a QJ, or JT, something similar to what he may have, and he will likely call a 4:1 bet with his top pair. Once again, this is one of those spots where players have huge leaks because they are afraid.

I see a lot of comments dealing with “lets check because the hands we are beating won’t call.” This may be true if we raised preflop and he called out of the blind, and then we bet the entire way with under cards, while he calls the whole way. But to worry about what will call and what won’t you need to consider what he thinks we have. Don’t forget to move up in levels of thinking… Don’t just play your hand against his. Try to imagine from his perspective, because in this scenario if you do, you will see that he more than likely will call a thin 4:1 bet with his top pair… which is wasted money on the table if we don’t make this bet.

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