Daily Hand Quiz

Check/fold.
Villain often has a pocket pair, of which you only beat 33 and 66.
He might have A9 or even a straight (76s).
The snap call on the flop makes it unlikely he has just overcards.
Whatever he has, we’ve shown plenty aggression and it didn’t impress, we will not improve, so we’re done with the hand.

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T Reply:
August 10th, 2010 at 7:15 am

Oops, no straight.
Point stands though.

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I’d lead for more than half-the-pot, say $58.

If the V had a pair p/f, I would expect a raise. I think 54 would fold p/f given they are relatively short. If they did play 54, then I’d expect a RAI on the flop.

We are concerned about a 9x, but our line has been strong so need to follow through here. Villain call on the flop may simply be based on the Hero’s LAG image, i.e. the perception of a c-bet on a missed flop.

Checking allows the V to bluff, and gets us zero info. Additionally, we lose control of the pot.

Based on our line, betting less than half-the-pot may appear weak.

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Nelson Reply:
August 10th, 2010 at 7:41 am

Say we do bet about half the pot, which is about half of villains remaining stack – maybe about 54. He goes all in. Now what? Aren’t we pretty much committed at this point? Also, say he just calls the 54. What do we do on the river?

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T Reply:
August 10th, 2010 at 12:00 pm

@samo:
What range do you suppose v puts us on here?

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Nelson Reply:
August 10th, 2010 at 12:13 pm

Hmmm. Well since our label is “pretty aggressive” it really could be almost anything. Maybe a lower pocket pair like sixes or sevens. Maybe any two suited overs that missed…?

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T Reply:
August 10th, 2010 at 12:59 pm

But he’s been quiet so far, and bought in short.
To me this signifies that he has been awaiting a chance to double up.
Ask yourself, why would he be flatting all your bets all of a sudden?
Simply because he doesn’t believe you have something? No, he needs to have a hand of his own here. And for a turn bet to make sense, you need to have good fold equity against hands that beat yours.
Which you don’t.

I think he may very well have limped then called pf with 44 or 55, hoping to setmine, and now be slowplaying you. A9 is very possible too.
But he can also have a higher pair. He sure wouldn’t be the first to slowplay AA!

There is nothing wrong with slowing down here. We have our aggro image already, what we don’t need is to be written off as a raging maniac.
It’s not a sign of weakness but a sign of, if you will, incidental tightness.

samo Reply:
August 10th, 2010 at 12:22 pm

With that quick call I’d say over-cards, or Ax that missed. If they caught the 4 or 5 on that flop, I’d say they ruled-out pps for the Hero (except for 33 or 22).

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Pirate21 Reply:
August 10th, 2010 at 1:54 pm

The part I’m having trouble with here is limping, then flatting the 4x raise p/f. I can maybe see that with something like TT-QQ, but they probably raise our c-bet on the flop.
I think KK+ is going to reraise p/f.
So, what about the small pps that now have a set – I have to think V is folding pretty often to that 4x raise, but if not they’re sitting pretty now.
Move on to middle pairs like 88-99 which are both ahead of us and I can easily see either playing the hand exactly like V has up to now.
That leaves big aces – since we don’t have a read, I won’t discount the possibility that they might play their big ace like this, but it seems a little odd to play so passively and still call the c-bet when you brick the flop.

So, I guess my point is that we’re behind what seem to me to be the most likely V range at this point. Not sure I have the appetite to keep betting.

samo Reply:
August 10th, 2010 at 1:38 pm

I think your pts about the V image and stack are valid. The latter you could also interpret as timid or weak, regardless we don’t have much info to go on.

Let’s go back to the call of the additional $12 p/f, which left them with $131. The implied odds are marginally above (11-1) the ~8-1 to flop a set and stack your opponent. Since it is not top set, I think their stack is going in on the flop.

6-max is quite different than a full-ring, thus pps and A9 are usually open-raisers. Sure they could have slow-played, which is part of the game.

I don’t think it is maniacal to lead into a 2h turn after raising p/f, and betting strong into a relatively innocent flop. Again, 77 is strong 6-handed.

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I think we are.

How has the 2h changed the story? If Hero thought they were ahead before, then one of the most innocent turns should not hinder their aggression. Sure the V could have A3, but that’s a miniscule part of their range. Additonally, in a 6-handed game most players are open-raising w/Ax from the CO.

If they hit the 9, then that’s bad luck for us. More likely they have overs, are drawing, or caught the flop w/a draw (e.g. 65) imo. Hero’s image may have kept them in. If Hero had a pretty tight image, then I’d be more concerned about the flop call.

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I’m putting Villain on JJ+, especially given his call of our turn bet. Look again at his profile — buys in as a short stack, plays hardly anything. Most of those guys just wait for a monster that they can double up with. His play so far is totally consistent with that.

We’ve done all the work for him. We’re in a hurry to build a pot, out of position, without a great hand.

That’s probably why he only called our pre-flop raise, instead of reraising. He’s been at the table long enough to peg us as an itchy bettor. He’s now got the hand and the position to take advantage of us.

Totally agree with the rest of T’s analysis. No reason to lose another $100 here.

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Jeff Reply:
August 10th, 2010 at 5:31 pm

JJ+?

He is unlikely to open limp w/ this range and he’s even less likely to flat a 4bet w/ JJ+.

What’s more, if he had JJ let’s say, he’s def raising the flop

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