If you re-raise, you’re committing yourself to call off the rest of your stack and if you get a call you’re probably behind. That makes this play risky.

Unless he’s sneaky, he doesn’t have a (good) flush so a call will slow him down. A call will probably convince him that he’s behind. If he still bets on the river, you can get away with enough M to get back into the game. If he checks, you can value bet him (making him think you have a flush), or you might just catch a boat in which case the value bet is a genuine play.

Folding when you’ve already put so much in and you feel you have a good chance of taking the pot looks like a bad play.

general johnson jameson Reply:
July 27th, 2010 at 2:28 pm

What? We have only put in 360. And we don’t have a good chance of taking the pot.

I think this is either fold or RAI. With only 4 outs to improve your hand, I don’t think you can just call here. Additionally, Hero has no read on the V, so uncertain if they’ll check it down. If we call, miss the riv, and they lead, we have to fold.

Based on the betting (and no read) so far, it is difficult to narrow the V range. The flop over-bet may indicate top pr, small flush, a straight, pair/draw, or air of course. Flopping a flush or straight would be more unlikely. Since Hero has 2-pr, I’ll elim 2-pr and a set for the V.

The turn card was terrible for the Hero, so the 2/3 pot bet by V could signify a made straight, or they did flop a flush and only need to fade one more. I think we can elim air since they would not bet into a board that likely hit the Hero. If they had top pair would they lead into this board? Only with a flush draw imo. RAI would price-out the V if they held the latter.

Hate to fold and let that nice pot go, but I think we are behind.

Pirate21 Reply:
July 27th, 2010 at 9:38 am

What does V’s overbet mean on the flop?
Doesn’t sound like a flopped straight or flush to me. Feels more like a “top pair, good kicker, scary board” kind of bet. Maybe a combo-draw too I guess. Could also represent a set, but I agree it’s less likely with our 2-pr.

Based on the betting pattern, I would be tempted to raise here and represent a stronger hand than we have. If called, I evaluate the river.

samo Reply:
July 27th, 2010 at 9:53 am

Yes, I can see the raise, but think AI is the only way to price-out the V. If they are holding something like KhQx, they have a multitude of outs to beat us.

I think a flopped straight/small flush may over-bet to protect against counterfeiting.

Pirate21 Reply:
July 27th, 2010 at 10:55 am

Yeah, I think you’re right about AI (mainly because of stack sizes).
I guess the point about smaller straight or flush makes some sense, but that means he raised p/f with what? Some kind of smallish suited connectors? Plus, wouldn’t that be a good spot to C/R instead - especially since our range is likely to bet this flop if he checks…
Feels to me like if he has the hands that beat us, he’s playing them a bit weird. My only real fear is that his latest bet is trying to induce our shove.

samo Reply:
July 27th, 2010 at 11:22 am

The V opened so I think middle connectors and gappers are in their range. We have no read yet, so could be up against an aggro opponent.

I’m not sure they can expect us to bet that flop. From the Hero perspective, that is a nasty board and a lead is vulnerable to a CR, especially from an unknown opponent. From the V perspective, let’s say they hold 8h6h, and Hero holds AhX or KhX. Only a CRAI may be enough to price-out the Hero. I think the small flush (or straight) may want to end it quickly. Then again, perhaps I have been counterfeited once too often.

I think we have only 2 routes here, and with no reads either can be taken. Either you believe he doesn’t have a made hand better than ours (Maybe AA,KK,KQ,AQ,) so we apply max pressure here and put him all in. OR, we either believe we are behind and try to get this to show down as cheap as possible.

The problem here is that we are losing to all kinds of hands that would open raise from MP. AK,QQ,JJ,TT,99,88,QJ,QT,T9,98,) and all of the other hands we are beating, have TONS of outs. (Any A,K,Q,9,8,7, heart)There is no river card we can be comfortable with. And since we didn’t reraise the flop like we should have, we have no idea where we are at in the hand right now, and there’s no way we can find out without investing all of our stack.

Looking at all of the evidence, considering it is early, blinds are dirt, we have zero reads, and we aren’t beating much here, we are drawing to 4 outs, and what we are beating has outs-city. I can’t imagine we are ahead right now, or that we will still be ahead after the river. its nice when our suited connector turns into 2 pair, but i think on this board, and we are only 360 chips deep, we have to make a very disciplined lay down and move on.