The first thing that comes to my mind is: How likely is it that a small stack has to have at the least an ace when he flat calls off 15% of his chips against a monster stack early position raise? I think it is reasonable to conclude more than likely. This is a terrible looking flop for us, but really the only card that matters is the A. The T didn’t help him, unless it provided him a straight draw, or his AT hit 2 pair, which is overkill anyway because the A is the only one that matters.

To be honest, 99 isn’t the last best hand we’re going to see for the rest of the tournament, and we are beef stacked right now. We raised like we should have, and we got out flopped. No big deal happens all the time. There’s really no point in putting another dime into this hand. If we c-bet for half, if he calls that makes the pot bigger than his stack, which means his next move is going to be all-in, which means if we c-bet he is likely coming over the top if he has anything at all, which we are guaranteed to be way behind, and we will donk off 17,000 more chips to a short stack, when we could have just considered the 3k a welfare donation and no one would be the stronger or weaker.

He is too short stacked to be worrying about obtaining flush draws, so if a third heart hits I’m not concerned. He is only playing high cards now, regardless of suits those are just a bonus. If this is me, I’m just going to check and try to get to showdown as cheap as possible. I don’t think we are beating anything here, except a smaller pocket pair, and that is even more unlikely than him having a single ace. If we don’t invest another dime, we still have over a healthy 24M, and our table is filled with short stacks that are going to become maniac shovers in 1 more blind level. Let’s save our chips so we have some to invest in our monsters against the shorties, and in the meantime just sit tight and watch these short stacks just turn the guns on themselves. They are going to be looking at abusing each other since calling all-in can only happen with the goods, and more than likely they won’t get aggressive with our blinds because we have lots to play with.

We raised our 99 like we should have, and came up short. No biggie, let this one go without a second thought. 9k isn’t going to make player E any more of a short stack threat than he already is. We are only down 3k, just cut and sit tight now baby.

73% lead call? I don’t see v calling without an ace which leaves us two outs. I voted lead fold. If v missed the flop they may fold to a bet of around 5k.

Not a good flop at all for 99. Hero has a fairly agg image, thus range is somewhat wider.

A big stack comes in handy when a spot like this comes-up. If we check, it will be pretty clear that we do not have an Ace. The check also allows the V, who we have no read on, to steal. I think a lead of 5.5k may do it. Obviously we are through with the hand if called/raised. Hero will still have a nice stack to move toward the $.

Lead-call – I think the voters misunderstood the question. Calling a raise w/99?

Check-raise – bad flop; don’t pour any more into the middle, especially vs. an unknown V.

Check-call does not get us any info, and may lead us into playing a larger than desired pot.

Check-fold – image and stack places this move on the weak side imo.

Our hand suffers from terrible reverse implied odds. It is all too likely that we only get called by a hand that beats ours, or a hand that has serious drawing potential. I think check-fold is the only option here. While I’m not totally opposed to a lead-fold, I think General Johnson Jameson is right: we played the hand exactly how we should have and we got out flopped. There is a serious chance he has the A, and in that case a lead invites a shove, which we have to fold to. There is no reason we should waste away our nice stack and beef up the short stack.

Admittedly, check-fold does invite a positional raise, one that we can’t call either. But I think his likely range makes check-fold the more profitable option. It depends how desperate he thinks he is: he isn’t c-betting with the short stack if he feels he has more time to take a pot with a better hand. But he could be using his short stack image to his advantage. We just don’t know with no read on our opponent.

Even if he doesn’t have the likely ace: KQ, KJ, QJ, and even K10 fit into his range. K10 is way ahead of us, and KQ, KJ, and QJ have almost 40% equity in the hand, giving him the proper pot odds to shove all in. So this opens his range up even further.

Ordinarily we could easily lead at the pot, but given the fact that ANY raise from V is a shove, we have the worst reverse implied odds and we would need to take this pot down way more than 50% of the time. We should check-fold.

Anonymous Reply:
July 20th, 2010 at 7:10 am

“chance” is the operative word. Lead - fold has highest EV, imo

M Reply:
July 20th, 2010 at 7:29 am

“Chance” is present in both of our assumptions. I’m taking the position that there is a likely chance he holds the A. You’re taking the position that there is not a likely chance he has the A. Either way we both deal in chance.

As I said earlier, I’m not totally opposed to a lead-fold. Realize, though, that we only win this hand with a fold. If he calls, we check-fold the turn, and if he raises or shoves, we fold. The point being that our reverse implied odds are horribly poor. The key element to this question is how much fold equity do we have? Even if he doesn’t have the A, does he lay down KQ, KJ, K10 or QJ? If we lead 4000 into the pot, he is getting 3.2 to 1 to call. This gives him the proper pot odds to call. If we are going to check-fold the turn to any call on the flop, we need to check-fold here (we only have 2 outs). There are too many hands for him to call with. The only other option is to elimnate Kx from his range by betting the pot. However, this leads us very vulnerable to the A. Unless you are willing to lead again on the turn to his call on the flop (to which you are almost guaranteed to get reraised all in), I think check-fold maximizes EV.

samo Reply:
July 20th, 2010 at 7:53 am

$4k is a terrible amount to lead for. We are certainly not protecting an Ace for that bet size. $5.5K gives them ~38% equity, and Hero has chips to lead for more. If they have big hearts, sure they’ll call/RAI. However, a gut-shot like KQ, KJ is doubtful imo, given that Hero is repping hands like AK, AQ, AJ.

There are a lot of factors to consider in this spot.
1) He’s short, he’s near the money, but he didin’t choose to fold into the prizes, he chose to play. Must had a strong hand pre, but not strong enough to raise.
2) The flop is just terrible, could’ve hit his range hard. Possibly a c/f against most bigger stacks, but…
3) …here we have a bigger than usual FE. We can certainly make any PP (incl. JJ-QQ), any T fold, might even push weaker aces (AJ-) off the hand. Nobody likes to be busted just a few hands away from the money.
4) Simply going all-in would be too suspicous IMO, I’d almost never do that with a real hand. Any other (but reasonably big) bet commits us, so those are out of question. Small bets are just burning money here, a bet like 4k cannot make him fold better. Leading is bad IMO.

I’d say c/r or c/f depending on his bet size. I obviously do not call a shove, and I wouldn’t raise any bet higher than 5k, since he’s committed. However I’d shove over any bet smaller than 5k, hoping that a c/r here reps a lot of strength.

I’m not a fan of raising 99 out of position, but here we are: we’ve represented a better hand than we have and v still took us up on it.
With no read I think we should include the premium hands in his range: with three players left to act after him he’s willing to go multiway, giving decent odds to the blinds. Close to the money he could well be taking a shot at tripling up with AA or something.
But I believe he could also make this play with any pair, suited connectors down to about 87, or an A with a decent kicker.

Lead-call is awful. If he’s willing to raise (which would almost certainly be AI) he definitely has us beat. If you don’t know when to throw away 99 you shouldn’t be playing it at all. We’re drawing to 2 outs, and even if the turn and river are hearts there is a good chance that v has formed a higher flush.
Check-call is also bad for the same reasons.

Lead-fold? We are representing a strong hand. There is a reasonable chance that he missed the flop and is looking to get away with some money left to work with.
I don’t hate the attempt to take the pot with a c-bet but if he calls, we need to go into check/fold mode, and if he raises, we fold.

Check-raise might’ve been justified if we had v read as a LAG player, but as it is I don’t see the point. Bluffing the big stack close to the money isn’t a very common play, especially if your image is aggressive and not necessarily tight.

So both answers that end with fold are fine as far as I’m concerned.
I picked lead-fold but it would really depend on the amount of mediocre hands I’ve shown down.

Pirate21 Reply:
July 20th, 2010 at 7:57 am

I’m right with you on the Lead-Fold. We have enough chips to take a stab and see how willing he is to invest more on this flop. If he continues to show strength, we can still get away with minimal damage.
I’m also fine with the check-fold line and cutting our losses.
I don’t think the C/R works often enough to be profitible here. By the time V puts in a raise, he’s pretty much committed and likely has us beat. If we assume he has at least an ace, the only thing he can be worried about is that we have AT or TT.

you’re a bunch of losers. Ship it and get paid by a lower pocket pair!