Daily Hand Quiz

Don’t like the 4 bet pf but now I’m pretty much pot committed and will get my chips in now hoping for a miracle fold or that I actually have 6 outs and that I’m only a 3:1 dog. Wow that sounds donkish. Cant check/fold or check/call.

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Agree. I can’t see how I’d ever check here.
Check/fold? Out of the question, we didn’t invest 1/3 of our stack to get scared by a single face card on the flop did we?
Check/raise? We won’t get to.
Check/call? No thanks.
Even in the highly unlikely event that v checks back we’ll hardly ever improve.

V has a wide enough range that there’s a fairly good chance he missed the flop as well, or holds some middle pair.
If we shove he’d have to seriously consider putting us on QQ-AA, AQ or KQ. He’d have to have a pretty good read on us to call with less than a set.

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First, not quite sure why we raised to $78 here out of position. It might have actually saved us, because unless he is strong, a nice c-bet all in will probably take this pot down.

I do agree that without a serious read he would need to consider laying the hand down, unless he is the one with AA or KK. At this point, I have invested 1/3 of my stack. Let’s say we shove and 50% of the time he folds–awesome. The other 50% of the time he calls. If he has the set, AA, KK, or AQ we are either drawing dead or basically drawing dead. There are very few hands we can expect a call from that we are a favorable underdog–meaning that we have the pot odds. It would be very ballsy for him to make this call with JJ or 1010. If he calls, there is a good chance that any card that helps us, helps him.

The reality is that if he doesn’t fold, we almost definitely lose the hand. We have to shove against any opponent that we feel we have fold equity on. I know we have no real read, so shoving is still probably the best choice. Problem is that even the loosest opponents probably have a tight range with a 39BB raise preflop. Sometimes it’s better to cut your losses, but in this case, shove.

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T Reply:
July 16th, 2010 at 7:48 am

Yeah we brought this on ourselves with our “you call that a bet? THIS is a bet!” nonsense. IMHO if you’re going to be a macho pre-flop, shove, certainly when there’s only one opponent left to begin with.

I suspect situations like these have ignited the classic Anna Kournikova joke…

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M Reply:
July 16th, 2010 at 8:19 am

Hahaha. I agree. It’s a pretty ridiculous bet size. The reality is that even if you thought a reraise was necessary, you could have gleaned the same info from a smaller raise. That big raise does nothing but get you more committed to a hand that misses 2/3 of the time. If he has a pair preflop, you’re a toss up. If he has a pair on the flop and you don’t you’re pretty much a 3 to 1 underdog. If you know you plan to c-bet the flop, then you know the only viable c-bet, given your stack size, is an all in after those $78.

I’m not saying don’t get your money in with AK preflop, but I am saying, don’t throw out 39BB, especially out of position. If this was me. I like the raise to about $7 and I call the $21 total. This is perfect, now I’ve only got 10% of my stack in, which is right where I need to be to make a commitment decision. I can EASILY check/fold this, or throw out a pot sized c-bet if I think he is weak without killing my stack.

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T Reply:
July 16th, 2010 at 8:38 am

“If you know you plan to c-bet the flop, then you know the only viable c-bet, given your stack size, is an all in after those $78.”

Precisely and if v knows this too it’s even more likely that he’s not letting go of this one.

I’m with you completely and would’ve just called preflop.
I’d only consider a reraise in a tournament, in which case I’d be AI, and only if I had seen v show down some weak hands before.

Kind of a tough spot – totally agree it’s brought on by a reckless preflop reraise OOP.
If you make this play preflop, you have to know you’re only hitting the flop ~1/3 of the time – so you have to anticipate this situation. I agree we have enough FE to get rid of JJ- and AJ-. Problem is I think the remaining hands in his range (QQ+, AQ+) are the most likely which leaves us very few outs. If we shove, I’m not sure what he puts us on – would we really shove after flopping top set on this board? Given his likely range, I’m not sure we fold him out enough to make this a +EV move.
So… we’re either choosing between a nitty check-fold or a reckless shove. I guess I shove here and hope for a miracle, but I really hate it.

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M Reply:
July 16th, 2010 at 9:13 am

I couldn’t agree more. I’m am more than convinced that we lose this hand if he calls (not only because we don’t have a pair but because we probably have close to zero outs). If I shove here it is ONLY because I have a lot of fold equity. Also, we would only be able to put $135 into a $173 pot, by no means is this a scary all in. We aren’t even betting the pot. The only thing we have going for us is our perception. If he isn’t holding AA or KK, we can possibly run away with this pot. Definitely a risky move. And you’re definitely right, this is the better of two evils situation. I don’t like an all in any more than I like a check/fold. The reality is that even though we put 1/3 of our chips in, they are a sunk cost and we can’t risk the rest of our stack just because we have invested. If we think we have negative EV, we need to check/fold, however much we may grimace as we do it.

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M Reply:
July 16th, 2010 at 9:16 am

One more comment: even though we are in here with AK, all of us agree that we wouldn’t have done this for $78. So if he is a solid player, I’ve got to put him on a strong pair. And he probably puts us on a pair. This means that to call the $78 he could very, very likely have AA or KK. Makes this even tougher. I know he is loose preflop. Would you call that bet in this situation with 1010 or JJ? I don’t know if we can put him on a hand like that. No shot he is on AJ or A10.

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T, what do you think of my last two posts? Isn’t it difficult to put him on anything except a premium hand like AA KK? What else do you have in his range that could warrant the shove? I understand that we invested 1/3 of our stack, but that was a dumb move and doesn’t change the fact that we may shove and be drawing dead, leaving us with a horrible negative EV. What are your thoughts?

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T Reply:
July 16th, 2010 at 10:26 am

Yes, that was pretty much what I meant to imply in my last response to you.
If v has any decent amount of experience, he calls the $78 knowing that you will probably be all-in no matter what the flop.

Having this in mind v might just have made the call with AA or KK only. The good news is that our shove reasonably represents QQ or AA now.
Our image is aggressive but not necessarily tight.
The bad news is we can’t exactly rule out v having QQ, or even AQ, and we are handing out slightly less than 2.5:1 pot odds.

Boy we are in a pickle aren’t we? I’m starting to understand why you’d c/f here.

Still would shove and do it fast hoping that v is impressed by our confidence our something

gtg now but I’ll check this one again later tonight (CET+1), it’s starting to get quite interesting.

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M Reply:
July 16th, 2010 at 10:47 am

I agree. The problem is that what we are trying to represent is the only thing that we can reasonably put V on. That makes this a really difficult bluff opportunity. Unless this guy is a nut calling $78 with mediocre hands, there is pretty much no hand that I want to see him turn over.

I actually sided more towards the shove earlier, but thinking the hand over more and realizing that our bet isn’t even pot sized, this is very tough to pull off. We’re only getting this call if we’re beat. I just don’t know if we have enough juice to get him off his hand.

One more thing, I totally agree with what you said earlier. If V is any type of good player, before he calls the $78 he realizes that any flop betting is going to put us all in. He would of had to be willing to call off our entire stack to enter the hand. Obviously this is preflop, so things can change after the flop. But he was definitely in there with a hand that he was very comfortable with playing until the end.

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Another great discussion again today, these forums have really come alive. Just my .02, I think everyone covered it pretty well:
1. The 4 bet was awful. Out of position and not even a made hand, not to mention raising just high enough to make the pot higher than our stack. Should have just shoved if we were really gonna 4 bet. AK is maximized as an all in hand, it gets all of its value from getting to see all 5 cards. Instead now we only get to see 3, and we didn’t even pick up a straight or flush draw. Awful.
2. Him only calling the 4 bet means he doesn’t have AA or KK. If he has those you can guarantee he’s popping it again after our clumsy 4 bet.
3. If we bet here, we are in a very tricky spot: The only hands we can get to fold here are non-made hands, and I don’t think there are any in this spot. We are only beating AJ-, and none of them would still be in this hand. Way more than 50% of the time here we are losing after this whiff. It feels a lot like his hand is something like 99,TT,JJ,QQ. This explains the 3 bet, and call instead of 5 bet, and we aren’t beating any of those, and none of them are folding with only 1 over card on the board, and getting a very tasty price to call with their made hand.
4. It is embarrassing, but I think we have to check/fold here. There is not a single hand we are beating here, and there is nothing we can represent that is going to get a fold from a made hand. This situation is as -EV as we can get. We have ace high, no hearts, and a piddly backdoor straight. Cut our losses now and pray our check looks fishy and we get to see a free card.
5. I hope a lesson is learned here, that building a preflop pot that is bigger than your stack with nothing but ace high that will wiff 2/3 of the time while out of position against a bigger stack is incredibly poor. This hand is riddled with nothing but errors.

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M Reply:
July 16th, 2010 at 12:23 pm

I’m inclined to agree with your 5 bet evaluation. He almost certainly does come over the top with AA or KK. I just have a hard time thinking he called the $78 with mid-high pair. At a 1-2 table this is a HUGE raise. He’s got to think 99-JJ are dominated in this situation. I would have to lay it down when an early position raiser comes out firing. I might even lay down QQ to this. Good call with the AA, KK. I guess this is one of those questions where the hypothetical really does not match up to reality. It seems like almost no hand fits in his range, imo. Unless he’s just a nut.

It changes the analysis though: If we put him on a pair where both our A and K are alive, we are about 25% to win the hand, so we need 3 to 1 from the pot. As it stands, if we bet $135 into the $173 and expect his call, we risk $135 to win 308, yielding 2.3 to 1. If we think V folds 12-15% of the time, this shove turns profitable:
15% we win $173 with the fold
21.25% we win $308 with showdown
63.75% we lose $135 with showdown
EV=$5

Something to consider.

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T Reply:
July 16th, 2010 at 3:31 pm

Well this remains a puzzler then.
Has this hand actually been played?

I’m sensitive to the argument that AA would’ve made the 5-bet. Would QQ have? KK? What kind of hand (or attitude!) would lead him to just call? Could he have AK as well? JJ maybe?
Is it possible that v thought our ridiculous raise was some sort of trap currently unknown to him?
Did it not occur to him to properly look at our stack, because he has more than anyone at the table and the rest is kinda lumped together?

I’m still having a hard time deciding what to do here. I do think it matters less what hand v has than what hand v thinks we have.

And I’m leaving the table after this hand and hope no one writes my name in his notebook under “Donks”.

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general johnson jameson Reply:
July 16th, 2010 at 8:52 pm

A few follow up notes:
1) The pot number is actually incorrect. It should be $159 in the pot, not $173. This effects the pot odds, as we are now risking even more to win less, thus your EV calculations should be skewed a tad bit worse than they are.
2) Don’t put too much limitation into his 4 bet call, remember he had already dumped $21 in, so when we made the 4 bet, he was still getting almost exactly 2:1 on his call, which I’d be making all day long heads up with any made hand 22-QQ.
3) AA and KK are basically the same hand. There is no hesitation on getting all of your dime in with either of these. Would anyone ever be cautious preflop with KK? Honestly?
4) Ok, if we shove all in, and bet our 139 into the 159, to make the call, the V is getting exactly 2.2:1 on his money to make it. Now, with only a Q on the board any made hand has to make this call paired with our aggressive image, there is no way they can fold, this price is excellent. Not to mention they are expecting this shove when they called the 4 bet, and they are probably more than prepared to call. Assuming we loosen the hands because this is 6 max, the only hands he can have that we are beating is AJ, AT, KJ. Since this is a cash game, I guess we can go ahead and fire away our horrendous bet and just reload when we lose every time here. I’m applying a tournament mentality to this, which means I don’t think I’d fire here.
5) I just want to repeat with emphasis that AK suited is a beautiful hand. But it is severely disabled when it only gets to see 3 cards. This hand unlocks its true power when it gets the full board. It almost always requires all 5 cards to make a straight or flush, and almost always when we hit the A or K that’s good enough to win. If we make that 4 bet, it has to be all-in and let’s apply the fullest pressure, negate our position disadvantage, and make sure we get all 5 cards to maximize this beauty.

Good discussions.

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For a shove to be EV+ Hero would need the V to fold >45% of the time. New to the table, fairly agg, and some history on the V may be advantages to shoving.

Hero 4b p/f trying to elim position disadvantage and misses the flop, which will happen about 2/3 of the time. Of course V will miss the flop in the same proportion.

We have an A and a K, and there is a Q on board. AA would have likely 5b AI p/f. KK and QQ a bit less likely with one of each card out. Unfortunately the dreaded AQ, which we were crushing p/f, is in the V range. Middle pairs are more likely however, and I think they will be tough to call. Remember, the shove does not look desperate due to the stack size, about ¾ pot.

Pull your hood over, say a prayer, and click AI. If called and lose, perhaps we can use this play to our advantage later in the session.

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boys, this is 6 max, low limit online poker. middle pairs and all strong aces are in his range easily, as are hands like kqs and worse. not only the game format, but loose pf image. maybe hes getting fiesty since hes been watching poker after dark and tom dwan would call the $78 with 8/5 just to pick up the pot after the flop. i dont know WHAT this guy has, but one thing for sure, you dont make the $78 4 bet if youre not gonna fire into the flop. its just as likely he missed as it is that we miss. put it in and hope he missed, his 9′s get scared and drop, or we hit a 6 outter. the best thing we have going for us is his “standard” play after the flop.

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Pirate21 Reply:
July 16th, 2010 at 7:38 pm

CB –
I think you made the best point which I’ll attempt to paraphrase…. If you’re going to make that PF bet OOP, you have to shove almost any flop.
The real lesson is not to put ourselves in this position in the first place. If we just call the $21 PF, we now have a lot more viable options to us….

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M Reply:
July 17th, 2010 at 12:11 am

I have to disagree here. Even in a very loose game, this is a serious raise. A lot of chips are thrown in the middle preflop and there are serious commitment issues at play. I don’t even consider KQ to be in his range. I agree with what Pirate21 said: the main lesson in this hand is to not 4bet AK. More specifically, don’t bet AK to the point where your only option on the flop is to shove or check/fold. At least leave yourself enough chips to bet more than the pot.

One thing that really gets me is that what we do now is not about how much money we have invested into the pot; it’s a sunk cost. We shouldn’t make a play on the hand just because we put so much in earlier. If we evaluate the situation from its current perspective and say, hey, I should check/fold here because that maximizes value (or minimizes losses), then that is what we need to do. All we can do is look back and learn from our terrible preflop 4bet. We don’t bet off the rest of our stack for no reason. If we think we have negative EV, we need to fold, it doesn’t matter how much we put in earlier. The trick to this hand is not getting into it, i.e., calling the 21 and not raising to 78. But once we are in it, the 78 is no longer ours. We have to take a fresh perspective. Forget the 78. Do we have positive or negative EV? That is all that matters.

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Pirate21 Reply:
July 17th, 2010 at 10:21 am

I agree with the “from here forward” analysis. My point is simply that you don’t make the pre-flop play unless you are prepared to shove almost any flop.

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Well, havn’t we got ourselves into a spot?

I think the lesson here is don’t 4-bet AK OOP.

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