Daily Hand Quiz

Pirate21 Reply:
July 15th, 2010 at 8:32 am

That is… if V just calls I would shove just about any river

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M Reply:
July 15th, 2010 at 8:57 am

I’m not sure that there are tons of river cards that scare us. Any spade that falls is certainly scary. I definitely don’t have the low straight in his range, which is a gut shot anyway. I don’t put in him on an AJ or A10, so there is no high straight either. Sure, if he hit the flop he could hit trips on the river, but we have the queen so that only leaves the remaining 2 7′s and 2 3′s. It’s also hard to put him on these because he is throwing a lot of action our way for bottom pair. I’m thinking its more likely he has Kx, maybe even K3 or K7. I can’t possibly have him on 37 calling a $40 raise. (Also, I’m assuming that the queen of hearts on the board is not a heart because we have the heart. If it’s a spade, my argument changes). Really the only thing that I legitimately worry about is a spade, and I put it at less than 50%, maybe 30% tops. I doubt he has KK or QQ either. If we shove and he folds, we are losing so much value. Even if he has the spades and we call and then he spikes it on the river, he made a bad play and got lucky. In the long run we make a lot of money off this hand if we bet for value here. If we think he calls the all in, we shove. If we call, and underbet the pot on the river, we can score some extra value. Just my opinion, what do you think?

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Pirate21 Reply:
July 15th, 2010 at 12:49 pm

I also think AQ, AK fit nicely into his range and possibly even A7 – so any ace would be a concern (or action killer).
Also, since I don’t know which Q is the heart (our hand or the board) I’m sorta assuming that we have to worry about a heart falling too.
Lastly, I wouldn’t discount the straight draw – it’s perfectly reasonable that flush/straight combo draws would play the hand as V has.

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Pirate21 Reply:
July 15th, 2010 at 12:57 pm

Remember…part of my argument is that the same cards that may be scary to us could also be action killers to V. There are 11 spades, 3 more aces, 2 kings, 2 queens, 2 sevens (and possibly 9 more hearts) that fall into this category – even if we discount nines and tens that could make the low end of the straight.
That’s at least 20 and possibly as many as 33 potential cards that could be viewed as action killers.
If any of those cards comes up, we may have more difficulty extracting another bet – plus many of them increase the chances that V out draws us. I believe we can extract value right now by raising – question is how much….

M Reply:
July 15th, 2010 at 2:14 pm

I don’t completely disagree; my first choice would be a raise here. The only problem is that it can’t be too big to where it is as if he is committed and is essentially an all in bet. Otherwise, he might fold.

IMO, AK and AQ don’t fall into his range. V needs to expect that if he checks SB and BB both at least call (or check for the BB), meaning that it’s a 4 way pot. He’s going to miss his hand 2/3 of the time. If he raises, he helps protect his hand and once he thins the field there is a good chance that whoever is left checks to him on the flop. I admit, we don’t know his style, but this doesn’t seem to fit. Now A7 could fit. It would help to explain the $60 feeler bet on the flop. But then a K falls on the turn and he raises our $110? We called a $40 preflop raise, a $60 flop bet, and came out betting on the turn. I don’t see him reraising into a K and Q. Not to mention, it was only a min raise, meaning he could have just been going for value, thinking his hand is best. I don’t put him on a 7 if that’s the case. He’s putting a lot of money in the center for bottom pair with very few outs to improve.

If we have to worry about the heart as well then there is not shot we call here, we definitely have to raise. Don’t forget, though, if all he has is a draw he isn’t getting nearly the correct odds for this play (he doesn’t know that a semi-bluff won’t work, so he has no fold equity and only the odds from his hand). So in the long run we make a lot of money off him–just work out the expected value over 100 hands. Also, V can’t be doing this with any low straight hand like 45o or 56o. If he has the 45 or 56 of spades he improves from 18% to 26%. It’s still a lot to be betting without a made hand (meaning he doesn’t have the pot odds). I don’t think we can place him on a draw–he should be working for pot control. Also, the spade didn’t hit the flop, so he would be betting $60 into a pot with just a gut shot. IMO, flush and/or straight draw is not reasonable.

You are right, though, some cards could kill the action for V. I think an A could do it if he hit a K. A spade could do it too. I would say a K or Q or 7 would do it though.

Also, you can’t really look at it as 20 out of 33 cards. We only know our cards and the cards on the flop and turn (making 6 total). A better analogy is to say that there is a 20/46 chance that a scare card hits. The same way as if you calculate a flush, you wouldn’t save there is a 9/33 chance he hits, you would say 9/46 chance.

Sorry for the long post, man. Just my thoughts.

M Reply:
July 15th, 2010 at 9:08 am

Just as a quick comment: I understand a shove here from a tournament perspective. The pot is pretty sizable and you want to protect your chips from getting drawn out on. My argument is coming from a cash game perspective where we want to maximize our equity in the hand.

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T Reply:
July 15th, 2010 at 2:05 pm

Basically the same question applies when you raise small does it not?
He just reraised substantially so I don’t see him folding to anything but all-in. In fact it’s far from unlikely he also has a two pair and calls.

I don’t think he’s merely drawing (he’d basically have to have Th9h) but I’m not about to grant him the opportunity, however small, to make a FH or a heart flush.

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T Reply:
July 15th, 2010 at 2:07 pm

Pardon, Th9h should be JhTh

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M Reply:
July 15th, 2010 at 2:19 pm

First, I’m not sure he has the heart draw, the diagram is not accurate. Even if he has the heart draw, in a cash game you’ve got to be willing to put everything on the line when the odds are in your favor. Granted, if you face bankroll constraints or something of the sort, other issues come into play. But from a theoretical perspective, you should be willing to play any hand all the way when you have the odds. In the long run you’ll be profitable.

Also, I don’t know if I consider if turn raise huge, he only doubled what we put in. I don’t think he was going much for fold equity there. I look at that as a value play. I’m not saying he can’t have the 109h, but his odds are all off for that. He might not even be considering them, though. In which case, I could be 100% off.

M Reply:
July 15th, 2010 at 2:20 pm

I think we need to come out smaller. Maybe $200. He must be skeptical at this point. If he wants to reraise, I’m game.

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Jeff Reply:
July 15th, 2010 at 2:36 pm

Just think if he had a flush draw on the flop, and then turned an open ender, his line may have been 100+ into 160 on the flop, then pop to 300+ or shove the turn.

He’s not building a big enough pot on the flop/turn and somehow thinks he’s gonna get our entire stack on the river if he makes his hand, which isn’t even the nuts.

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M Reply:
July 15th, 2010 at 2:41 pm

I agree exactly. What is he trying to accomplish with the min raise? He should know he isn’t taking us off our hand with that raise. He either flat calls for pot control or raises substantially to make a semi bluff profitable. That was not a semi bluff raise, which is why I have him on a more legit hand. What’s more, if he just calls the $110, he’s getting 3.5 to 1 odds. With 15 outs he only needs about 2 to 1. He’s getting a great deal. Why would he raise here and mess up his odds and also put himself in the position for a reraise all in.

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T Reply:
July 15th, 2010 at 6:43 pm

Apologies, I made quite a silly error due to a rephrase: it should say he raised UNsubstantially… which indeed I interpret as a value bet, which leads me to believe he will not fold easily to just a bet. Hopefully that clears some confusion.

What I do think I made clear is that I find it very unlikely he is on any kind of draw here, but since we have no read at all we can’t rule it out entirely because you find the strangest players at cash games. Some act on nothing but whim.

It may just be my bad experience with slowplaying two pairs, but I simply must shove here, no clue as to what river card may help v but a 3 or a 7 would be too embarassing and I wouldn’t welcome an A either.

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Michael Piegaro Reply:
July 15th, 2010 at 8:47 pm

A raise all in would not offer tempting odds for a draw. If he is on a straight or flush draw he needs almost 5 to 1. He would need a straight AND a flush draw to be getting the correct hand odds. The fact is that when all of the chips are in, there are no implied odds, so we would never get a call from a draw. If he does call, he is making a horribly incorrect play. Even if we lose the hand because he draws out on us, it doesn’t matter. Our long run expected value against that play is enormously profitable. Every time our opponent makes the wrong play, we gain in the long run, regardless of how the immediate hand turns out. In a tournament, the analysis is slightly different because we risk elimination. If we can get V to call the all in, I’m 100% for it. Don’t get me wrong, my biggest reason for not shoving is that I believe his betting patterns are for value, and he almost certainly has the second best hand with very little chance of improving. If he doesn’t call the all in, we get more value by taking him to the river then forcing a fold.

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