
Game type: Live Event Satellite, PokerStars
Stage of tourney: 260/8076 remain
Avg stack: 102k
Your image: Fairly quiet
Opponent’s image: Same
Your hand: 7♦7♥
The setup: You’re deep in this live event satellite on PokerStars. The top 226 players get seats. There’s 260 left when the following hand comes up.
You’re in the hijack and it folds to you. You raise to 12k, the table folds to the BB who reshoves.
What’s your play?
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BB is short stack but has no need to be desperate here. 77 doesn’t hold up against like 75% of the hands I’d put him on. Fold.
[Reply]
Agreed. We would also know how our remaining chips compare to whoever is currently 226th. Not sure if we are above or below that point but would still fold.
[Reply]
Agree as well. No shot we can call here. We are dominated by a whole range of hands and only a toss up against others. There are only a select few hands that we are happy to see turned over. The only problem here is we have about 13 BB. All things considered, though, this would be a bad play. We almost definitely have less than 50% equity in this hand and pot is giving roughly 1.4 to 1. We would have to win this hand 41% of the time to break even. We’re about 55% to win against any two cards higher than ours (give or take 2 percentage points). But we’re smoked by any higher pocket pair, looking at about 20% equity. A huge leak is playing too tight when the bubble is approaching, but this would not fall into the too tight category. Fold.
[Reply]
This is a snap fold for me – we definitely didn’t want to see a r/r and now we have to give V credit for a hand. With only 34 players left to survive, most of the table will be playing fairly tight so there will be much better opportunities coming up.
[Reply]
remember this is a satellite, we only need to survive for 34 more players. that said, a quiet player shoving all in over the top of another quiet player means that the shoving guy has the goods. he isn’t kidding. we cannot basically call all-in with 77.
our stack isn’t big enough to fold into the ticket. so we’re gonna have to look for spots to steal, and get paid off with good hands. comfort zone is long gone, time to start making calculated moves, especially against the big stacks. remember they are looking to do nothing at this point but just fold their way in. I’d be real surprised if any of them bothered to defend their blinds unless they have the goods. i think we made a mistake here trying to min-raise this hand against the low stack who is looking for any chance they can to steal. Even though we are above 5M, I think we should start shoving now while at around 8 or 9. This puts a hefty risk in front of anyone willing to call off 80k chips with only 34 left to lose.
Gotta start picking on B,C,G. They will completely roll over and let us have whatever we want in this satellite. No way will any of them risk 80k just to eliminate 1 player.
[Reply]
While I agree with folding, the Hero needs to manage his plays better at this point. Imo this is either fold, limp-fold, or raise-call. They just lost 12K, or 15% of stack leading into a couple of big stax. 34 players still plenty to climb over.
[Reply]
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