Daily Hand Quiz

Gotta lead here. We have the stone nuts, nothing is beating us here. He doesn’t have KK. The only possible thing we have to worry about here is some kind of flush/straight combo draw. He called on the button with some kind of suited connector because he was getting a good price and he had position. He flopped a flush draw, with a possible backdoor straight combo, so it was a given he was going to call the flop bet. There is no other possible hand that can beat us that would still be hanging around after that flop and bet. The K changed nothing, except maybe him getting a few more outs if he has like AT spade or something.

The worst case scenario here is if he has JT spades. He is drawing to 15 outs only, cuz remember the K and 4 are no good for him. More realistically is that he doesn’t have the straight draws, so he is gunning for 7 outs. If he has AT or AJ he has 11.

This is one of those special cases where our bet size is going to be completely determined by odds formula. Bet just enough so that he isn’t getting a good price, and also enough that he doesn’t fold yet while we are 80% favored. At this point mathematics fully takes over, there is no more “playing the player” so to speak. It is important to remember here that he has zero implied odds. We already know what he has, so if his river flush hits, we aren’t going to pay him off a dime, so he is -EV this entire story line.

Let’s lead here for just a tad under half pot, how about 375. This is going to give him exactly 3:1 on his money, which is almost impossible to not call, but is still a bad price for his odds. The A or T instead of the K doesn’t change anything for us. If it is an Ah instead, he may even pay us off more because he would have a pair of aces with his busted draw. If the river bricks really hard, I will probably lead again for so little he almost has to call with anything. If the K or 4 of spades hits, oh baby be prepared to cash the check. If any other spade or possible straight card hits, we ain’t payin nothin’.

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I’m tempted to check with hope of inducing a bet by the V. With this board, I can’t see anything else in their range except perhaps a mid-pr, or a big spade. However, we have no strong read on them, so I’d lead to protect against a draw. Make it 550 to go.

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Have to lead here. Checking is pretty suspicious after we fired on the flop and it’s not likely the K did him much good so all we could hope for is a bluff. Seems pretty likely he’s on a spade draw so we need to charge him to see another card. I think around 1/2 pot should get the job done. If river bricks, a value bet of around 600 is in order (he probably folds though).
If river is a spade I’ll slow down. If it’s an ace or ten I’ll keep going since I’m not really putting V on a straight draw (I’d re-evaluate if he reraises).

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Leading is the best option. Te way he is playing the hand, his range is easily mostly Draws and rarely bare top pair.

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the best part about leading is that the king gives him the option of raising either with anything, he could have a king, a draw, anything, and put us on a queen after we bet the flop. he might figure the king to be a scare card for us, and therefore its a good spot for him to make a move. either way he has no reason to think the k helps us, so we should expect at least a call if he called the flop. lets donk it out here, definitely get value, and hope he gets fiesty.

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