Daily Hand Quiz

Seems like a standard: “It sucks but you gotta fold situation.”

No idea where you are in the hand, no reads, still very early…OOP, blah blah blah.

Fuck Jacks.

[Reply]

Julian Reply:
May 21st, 2010 at 12:58 am

Seems like a standard: “It sucks but you gotta fold situation.”

No idea where you are in the hand, no reads, still very early…OOP, blah blah blah.

Fuck Jacks.

If you think this is a squeeze play you might as well shove with 64 offsuit, because if you get called, it means you wrong, and you are in terrible shape either way.

[Reply]

John Kugelman Reply:
May 21st, 2010 at 2:51 pm

64o != JJ

Hand 0: 25.958% 25.74% 00.22% 179833452 1514472.00 { 64o }
Hand 1: 74.042% 73.83% 00.22% 515757636 1514472.00 { QQ+, AKs, AKo }

Hand 0: 36.190% 35.98% 00.21% 125683776 731868.00 { JJ }
Hand 1: 63.810% 63.60% 00.21% 222162504 731868.00 { QQ+, AKs, AKo }

[Reply]

Very tough spot. I’m thinking that AA in position would just call to induce more action. However, w/o a read on the v, stage (early) of the tourney, and stack sizes, think we need to err on the conservative side and give them credit. Fold.

A r-r commits … personally, I don’t want to flip (at best) at this point.

A call may not get info, and relieve you of chips. Could try to call, then lead the flop if all unders hit. This play may fold-out AK, however, this may commit your stack.

[Reply]

This is clearly a fold or shove situation. If the field were much smaller I’d be tempted to call and play a flop despite being out of position, but with the initial raiser looking pretty short and having already opened for nearly a tenth of his stack, he’s not likely to fold getting pot odds of four to one.

The factor that leans me towards a fold here is that it’s quite possible we’ll get more than one caller if we shove. I’m giving the initial raiser credit for having a pretty strong holding having opened from early position with the shortest stack, which makes it less likely the re-raise is a squeeze. We still have fifty big blinds, let’s not get crippled with jacks. Fold and move on.

[Reply]

If we push here we’re gonna get called 90% of the time, since ‘F’ will have 1:2,5 odds to call. I think not only will he call w/ his legit 3betting hands (AQ+, JJ+), but anything he tried to stole w/ except 32-72o probably.
If he was 3betting for chips (AQ+, JJ+ IMO) we have about 42% to win 22k if everyone else folds (EV=-0,8k) or 27% to win 32k if ‘C’ wakes up w/ a calling hand (Ak, QQ+ IMO; EV=-1,4k). Pushing here is a mistake, if we believe that they have what they seem to have.
What if it was a move? Than a push is certainly a good choice against a much weaker range. Our problem is that we would need firm reads not only on ‘F’ but also on ‘C’ to decide if this can be a move or not. Here we know absolutely nothing, so let the hand go.

[Reply]

By the way, I’d be interested to know what level most of the regular posters on here play at, and how many of you are pros? Have any of you had any big tournament wins?

[Reply]

Seems like a very large reraise so I am thinking not AA. Feels like they don’t want action so I had voted raise. Lots of good arguments made for folding too. At least we all agree that JJ sucks.

[Reply]

Morat Reply:
May 21st, 2010 at 6:10 am

It’s actually a little smaller than pot sized raise, commiting 30-35% of V’s stack. I don’t read anything specific from that.

[Reply]

by the book, this is a standard fold early in an mtt. at this point, the object is to stay out of dangerous situations and make the most of advantageous ones. survival, and chipping up.

if you have a read, then maybe the decision changes. but we dont, so fold.

[Reply]

No need to set-mine here. Let it go.

[Reply]

You haven’t entered this tournament to be pushed around by these clowns. All in.

[Reply]