Daily Hand Quiz

UTG player has a pocket pair like JJ-TT and he doesn’t want three callers and a flop with one or two overcards, so open-shoves. I don’t like coinflipping this early in the tournament. I’d call with JJ+

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runefs Reply:
April 23rd, 2010 at 7:02 am

I’m with you on that. Sure the pot odds are probably right for a call but it’s tournament poker not a cash game so we can’t just buy a new decent sized stack. Will get a better chance of doubling before we run out of chips. fold and wait for a better spot to risk our life

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Easy call: we’re either way ahead or flipping. AA-KK never shows up here. The blinds doesn’t matter much, since the chance they have one of the two hands we fear is below 2%.

AQ, 88: fold. It’s too early to call all-ins in marginal situations. We need at least 47% chance to win. W/o a read I say UTG probably makes this play w/ 88-JJ, AJs+, AQo+. Shoving 20 BBs w/ smaller pairs is possible but stupid IMO, so I wouldn’t assume it w/o a read. AQ, 88 are about 40-45% to win against that range. And don’t forget the two live players behind who can still suprise us.

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samo Reply:
April 23rd, 2010 at 6:45 am

Agree. Since hero has AK, unlikely up against an over-played AA or KK. Relative stack size also tells me that this is the stage to take a flip and see if we can chip-up to the table leaders.

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If you wouldn’t call with AKs, what WOULD you call an open UTG shove with? AA only? Folding is a little nitty IMO.

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kaimano Reply:
April 23rd, 2010 at 5:57 am

Unless the UTG player is fool, open shoving with 20 BB is not a desperate action. It means or a medium strength hand not wanting action postflop (like 99-TT-JJ) or a monster hand simulating to be a medium strenght hand. I don’t see any hand behind AK (unless a foolish AQs) openshoving in this spot

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Morat Reply:
April 26th, 2010 at 5:27 am

You have no read. You said his range is TT-JJ. A lot of other scenarios are possible. He might have just lost a big pot and is steaming. Or – haven’t you seen a player playing OK poker, then suddenly loosing focus and patiance and doing crazy plays like this after 2-3 hours? Can’t he be a fish trying to run over the table w/ shoving every 4-5th hand?
We don’t know anything about the player. The point is we cannot really loose: the odds are correct for a flip, but we can be ahead or way ahead easily.

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i voted call, but i pretty much expect to be flipping. if i knew for a fact he had a pair i wouldnt do it, but there is a chance we’re crushing a/q or he’s making a wacky play with another non-pair hand. i dont see aa or kk in his range so im not worried about that. as is, im willing to flip right now to try to become a stronger stack. AKs is just too strong to let an open shover bully us. someones gotta be the sheriff so ill volunteer. we’ll still have chips if we lose, which is comforting. and if we win, the rest of the table will know they can get called and busted, which helps to clamp down on this type of play.

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Sted.Ruckus Reply:
April 23rd, 2010 at 11:08 am

WORD!

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I’ll reluctantly call. I generally agree with Morat’s range, although I think the PPs could go down as far as 66+. Would be helpful to know what V has been up to the last couple orbits. Did someone suck out on him? Have people been shoving over his EP raises? Other things that might have him frustrated?

Most signs point to him having a sm-med PP. I’d prefer to go a little deeper before flipping for 2/3 of my chips, but the few other hands in his range probably give us the advantage.
My calling range is probably TT+ & AK.

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Mid-stages of the tournament and we have exactly no read on villain.

We’re obviously up against a decent pocket pair which makes us an underdog.

AKs vs QQ-22 since villain would play AA and KK much slower… he would usually just raise with those hands to maximize value.

AK is 47.6% chance to win.
QQ-22 is 52.4% to win.

EV = $6944(0.476) – $6269(0.524)
EV = $3305.344 – $3284.956
EV = +$20.39

Mathematically correct to call, but one thing stands in the way. Would you really risk more than half of your stack in the MIDDLE stages for a slightly +EV call?

Survival or math, It’s way too close. If villain had a $3,000 left behind, then it’s an easy call since my $10,000 stack can take a hit.

I don’t know, I really would want my calling range to be AA-JJ+, high pocket pairs, but I guess it’s a call for me.

I call with AKs just in case villain is an idiot who shoves AQ/AJ type hands, but I expect a coin flip.

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SNAP CALL NOOBS

if he has AA-KK unlucky.

if its a flip who cares! blinds and antes make the flip +EV

we want to accumulate not survive!

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Easy call. You are holding the 4th best hand in the game. There are VERY few situations in hold ‘em where your calling range should be “KK-AA”. When you have a big/medium stack and are 1 person from the bubble you can fold this hand.
Right now, it’s a monster. Call. Unless you catch a sick run of cards you need to win a hand or two like this to run deep in a tourney.

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Call. Would fold 88/AQ. Would call TT.

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