Daily Hand Quiz

Folding saves you 10BB and keeps you in a better chance to after this guy in the near future. If that weren’t enough, the raise is almost definitely a raise for value — he’s TAG and isn’t going to be raising a lot of hands here.

Calling lets you peel one card, and if you don’t get there on the turn, you pretty much have to fold to another bet. I lean toward this call if I’ve built up a deeper stack, as you do in fact have the 4:1 odds you want for a straight draw, albeit just barely.

Raising is the worst choice. You can’t really raise enough to get him off K10+ without committing yourself to the draw.

All told, I’m apparently outspoken on this one, but I’m laying it down. Even though it’s a cash game and I stand to make pretty good money if I get there on the turn, you’re going to find better spots… cash games are long sessions.

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John Kugelman Reply:
April 6th, 2010 at 7:16 am

I’m with you. I don’t like playing this hand from early position. I don’t like drawing without fold equity, which we don’t have now that we’ve been raised and lost the betting lead. We have no way to pot control and try to hit our draw cheaply. Our implied odds are limited as our opponent probably only has one pair and isn’t going broke. It’ll be hard to extract money out of him out of position–if we hit on the turn do we check and risk him checking behind, or do we bet out?

I’m not a fan of playing suited connectors out of position. We’ve got very limited reads on our opponent–no idea if he’s good, terrible, what.

Blech, fold preflop, fold now.

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I’m glad to see this quiz as I’ve had lots of problems recently playing open-ended draws on the flop. I’ll be interested to read the comments.

I expect villain has a king or 77-QQ at the very least. We’re getting odds of over 3 to 1 which is more than enough to hit it by the river, and there are also the implied odds to take into consideration. However, if we call and miss, it’s likely we’ll face a big bet on the turn and have to fold.

I don’t think a raise is going to scare him away given our image and I don’t like building pots when I’m behind, so it’s either a call or a fold, both of which I think are reasonable. I would tend to call and check the turn regardless of whether we hit or not.

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He’s repping a pretty tight range and is very polarised to air (probably with very little equity against top pair or better) and nut hands. Therefore we should be playing our range passively against him. The only hands that can 3bet and feel good about getting it in are sets and it’s much better for us to just call these as it makes it much harder for him to profitably barrel his air against our weaker made hands. Hence, 3betting the 87 only achieves making him fold air and may even inspire him to turn his bluff into a hero call since the line makes so little sense (but he won’t do this often enough to make value 3betting good in this spot).

Therefore if we want to continue with the hand we should call rather than raise. We’re getting about 3-1 pot odds so even if we average on getting just 1 smallish bet in every time we hit on the turn then this will be a winning play. Pretty sure we will do much better than that and may in fact be able to bluff profitably on a later street as well, or see a free river.

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Interesting raise …
1)V overplaying AK?
2)V flopped set or 2-pr and puts hero on AA and AK, thinking it will go AI?
3)V attempting to find-out if middle pr is good?
4)V representing a K thinking hero has missed?

Even though hero has an agg image, this does not preclude him/her from having a big hand in EP. I don’t think AK is raising on a such a dry board, especially considering an agg hero. Call w/AK and let them fire the turn.

Flopped set/2-pr – a possibility, but with an agg hero (i.e. wider range), I think more likely to flat and raise the turn, hoping that the hero has a K. Nevertheless, I have a red flag up due to the board texture.

Probe bet – possible, but hero has 87, so less likely v holds 88 and 77. I think 99+ are 3-betting p/f.

Representing a K – also possible.

In any event, with 8 outs I’d call the $200 at better than 3-1 pot odds. Hero’s hand is disguised and if we turn a straight the implied pay-off is obviously much larger. I’d check the turn and if we hit, CR large hoping that the v does have a set/2-pr. If turn is a miss, fold to a bet.

Folding is out since we have pot/implied odds.

Raising is an option and would fold-out a middle pair probe. However, I am still wary of the set. Calling is more economic and also sets-up a large potential pay-off should we hit and are up against a set or 2-pair. If hero raises here and the v has a monster, they are likely re-raising us out of the draw.

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Anonymous Reply:
April 6th, 2010 at 6:03 am

What would you do if you called and caught a nine on the turn, checked the turn with the intention of check raising, but villain checked behind, and the board paired the K, 5 or 6 on the river?

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samo Reply:
April 6th, 2010 at 6:27 am

Pour iced coffee on top of my head … no seriously, the 9 seems harmless to the v on the turn, while the river pairing may give the v trips(Kings)or 2-pr (K-up). Hero is probably seeing action, so I’d check-call. I think this type of player would raise a riv lead with only a better hand (FH).

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Apparently we are a bit weak on math today. This is a huge mistake by some people when “pricing draws” because they fail to take into account the action on the turn and they don’t know the correct odds for a draw anyway. Allow me to rectify this.
H needs to call 200 into 630, so H is getting exactly 3.17:1. For 2 streets H is getting 17% per street for a salubrious 2:1 (34%). For the next card only, however, H has 8 outs in the 47 cards left in the deck (45 since we know what V has) for a measly 17% or 4.88:1.
Since V is TAG, V is guaranteed to bet the turn as that is what TAG’s do when they have the best hand and thus H is not getting the price at all to call. Furthermore, V made the perfect play because in the face of a semi-bluff, a raise gives the H -EV no matter what happens.
Therefore, draw aside, the question is whether H is able to raise to bluff out H. The only hands H could rep would be AA, KK (both highly unlikely) and a set of 6′s or 5′s. I would argue that 6′s and 5′s are not the stuff of UTG raises, even for a LAG H, and therefore V will call H down and win.
V in this position seems extremely likely to have AK or KQs and played it nicely reading H for a semi-bluff.
Fold and use this opportunity to get more money out of future c-bets when H has a hand.

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Anonymous Reply:
April 6th, 2010 at 6:17 am

What about the implied odds?

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Loki Reply:
April 6th, 2010 at 6:32 am

In my opinion, too much emphasis is placed on implied odds. I think that implied odds are meant to make it a call when you are close to getting the correct odds. In this case, however, H is a huge dog for the next street and there is no guarantee that V will stack off anyway. 87s is very much in the range for a LAG player UTG+1, especially who likes to bet pre and c-bet post.
Furthermore, in that post I was presuming that V had at LEAST AK. 55 and 66, however, are still quite likely and thus there are also reverse implied odds when H hits the draw but the board pairs and H stacks off to V. Recall that the odds of a set improving to a FH or 4 of a kind are 7/47 + 10/46, or approximately 1/3. I think that these numbers make H’s implied odds negligible in the face of being essentially a 5:1 dog.

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Morat Reply:
April 6th, 2010 at 7:32 am

OK, let’s do the math for the implied odds as well. We have to call 200 to win 630. W/o implied odds and assuming V always bets the turn our expected value looks like this:

17.7% x 630 – 82.3% x 200 = -53,09
(Assuming V doesn’t block our outs.)

That is, if we hit the turn (assuming the hand ends there for now) we have to bet around 60 into a 830 pot and get called, or we will have to make V bet 60 or more to win. Since we assumed V always bets, this shouldn’t be a problem.
OK, lets say the 4 is a scare card for V and he will c/f any hand if a 4 hits (pretty weak for V IMO). How often will he bet 120 or more into 830 when a ’9′ hits? I’d say he’ll bet 600 (not 120!) 50-80% of the time, which makes it pretty much profitable, even with these strict assumptions.

How about if he has a set? You should see, that he can’t improve on the turn if we do. He can have 10 outs (20%+) on the river. Assuming he has a set here 50% of the time you have to worry about V improving a total of 10%+ times on the river. If it makes you scared just c/r all-in on a good turn, and you’re still making a lot of money by calling the flop.

Factors making our odds even better:
- V can have air or the same hand here. If he’s on a draw as well he might (he should) give up the turn in which case you can take the pot on the river.
- If V has a strong king he’ll probably check the turn for pot control. I don’t expect this to happen often, but the chance that you see a free river is certainly more than 0%.

samo Reply:
April 6th, 2010 at 6:38 am

Don’t want to speak for everyone, but the ~3-1 assumes seeing both streets. Clearly the turn is about 1/2 that. If the v has a hand they will bet the turn, but there is no guarantee of that, especially given the hero’s image and call of the raise. Factor-in the implied odds as well. This is a pretty good flop for our hand, and it is well-disguised. The raise to $320 was not enough, so let’s see if we can make the v pay.

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Loki Reply:
April 6th, 2010 at 7:00 am

I’m going to have to disagree on the principle that getting a semi-bluff raised gives hero -EV no matter what play H makes. This is well explained in “Texas Hold ‘Em for Advanced Players.”
Therefore, cut the losses and fold here. Otherwise H is going to find him/herself paying the incorrect price on two consecutive streets which is a double mistake. I think a lot of players lose money here because they get pumped up about implied odds and what have you. The mathematical reality is that H is a statistical dog here no matter what and saves money by folding.
Also, the definition of a TAG player is that they attack when they have a hand. Therefore, if the turn blanks and hero checks a bet is guaranteed from V.

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Raise all in

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Woah, lets get a couple of things straight:

1. Villain will never or almost never raise 77-QQ here. He will also be unlikely to raise most top pair hands.

2. Can people not see the blatant contradiction between saying that we’ll never get to see a river and also saying that we can’t rely on good implied odds?

If we get to see two streets then we have plentiful pot odds, so the call becomes automatic.

If we never get to see a river then we need to win on average another $350 or more when we hit on the turn to make this play +EV. This is one more small bet.

So if our opponent bets the turn then we automatically have good implied odds and if he checks the turn then we automatically have good pot odds. It’s a win-win situation and therefore this is a very easy call.

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Anonymous Reply:
April 6th, 2010 at 7:43 am

I like this analysis the best. I agree – call is the best option.

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Loki Reply:
April 6th, 2010 at 8:13 am

I want to play cash games with you guys.

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Anonymous Reply:
April 6th, 2010 at 8:35 am

But what Pete said is correct. The implied odds are there to make the call and should not be disregarded. If we hit we hold the nuts, so the inverse implied odds are irrelevant other than the 10/46 on the river (and that’s just for the times we’re up against a set or two pair, which is possible less often than AK/KQ).

The fact that hero is a statistical dog here no matter what is irrelevant if calling in this situation over time returns more money when it hits than it loses when it misses, which it does.

Anonymous Reply:
April 6th, 2010 at 8:47 am

Loki, basically what you are saying is that now that our semi bluff has been raised, we are -EV for the hand no matter what. This is true and there’s nothing we can do about it, we can’t go back and play the hand again and we must play it from where we are. The +EV play from where we are now is to call, not to fold.

Morat Reply:
April 6th, 2010 at 12:41 pm

Loki, we’d like to play we you too, so… screen name and site pls!

_CityBorn_ Reply:
April 6th, 2010 at 11:11 am

i think your first point is completely false. villain could easily raise 77-qq or top pair against a lag in this spot. the point of the lag style is that opps will have a hard time knowing where they stand. you think a tag in position would never probe with what is likely the best hand to find out where he stands? it doesnt say he’s weak, it says “more tag than lag”. with 77-qq he could easily figure he’s good and will take it down a large portion of the time, but will hear from us if this is the time we actually have the hand. thats par for the course in this spot.

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Morat Reply:
April 6th, 2010 at 1:03 pm

Totally agree w/ everything. Just please tell me how you calculated that we need to make another 350 when we hit. According to my calculation we only need 53 more (see above). Not that it matters much – still an easy call.

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im calling, like i said last time they ran this quiz. implied odds make this profitable since chances are the v has a real hand and will pay us off.

id like to eliminate the position problem and put the pressure back on him with a raise. and i think somehow thats what the top dogs would do, but id have a hard time putting a huge chunk in figuring him to be fairly strong. ill play it safe, be that the right or wrong thing….

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