Daily Hand Quiz

Continue to lead about 2/3 pot. Not sure what extra outs the king provided. In fact if v has ace ten I just lost 3 of my 15 outs.

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brockage Reply:
April 1st, 2010 at 4:36 pm

easy 2 barrel with the added outs.
I may even bet a blank river representing the K, he will have a hard time calling with a bare JQ type of hand

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brockage Reply:
April 1st, 2010 at 4:38 pm

he like never has AT here IMO, he he pretty much got a flushdraw himself, a Qx type of hand, a midpair or pure air.

but reads would be nice on this

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i like leading here against a multitabler. theyre usually so by the book and thoughtless about their actions that the king is probably a scare card and might induce a fold. if not, hopefully we’re just building the pot for when our draws hit.

plus i agree with groundhog….what extra outs? if anything it took outs away.

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Yeah unfortunately I think we gotta bet here – even if for no other reason than a blocker. And villain might fold anyway. Hopefully we don’t get raised and get there on the river, where its time for value town.

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Let’s think about the hands our opponent has. The key consideration is the semi-wetness of the flop. It’s not a total drawfest but it’s not rainbow and raggedy either.

- AQ/KQ/QJ. Possible. I’d expect to be raised more often than flatted on the flop, but who knows. Villain may call a second barrel or raise us.

- A set. QQ is unlikely due to no preflop 3-bet. 66 and 88 could be trapping, though are unlikely just due to low number of combinations (i.e. sets are rare). Also, opponent will raise sometimes. If we bet the turn the villain will almost certainly raise for value.

- Mid pair, like 99-JJ. These make sense given the action. The villain is going for pot control. The villain may call again, or may fold to significant aggression.

- A higher flush draw. Definitely possible. He may fold to another bet, or he may be planning to raise the turn and/or bet if we check.

- Air. Villain is floating us? Not a common play from a multitabling nit, but at these stakes it’s quite possible. We’d be c-betting this board almost always, I presume, and so he might not let us have the pot all that easily. If we’ve been floated by Kx he may call or raise, and if it’s a total airball he may fold or he may raise.

Our hand really wants to see the river. We really don’t want to bet and get raised at this point as even though we have a strong draw we don’t want to get all the money in with only one card to come.

If the villain has a medium pair or a complete whiff he’ll probably fold to a bet. He may fold a better flush draw. He may also raise these hands some of the time.

If he has Qx, Kx, or a set, we have decent showdown equity and not much fold equity.

I voted to check/raise the turn. We’ll be inducing bets out of the weaker portion of his range (air, flush draws) along with the strong hands and he’ll likely check back the middle ones. A bet followed by a check/raise is a really strong line and we should have good fold equity even against hands as strong as Qx. His betting range will be much weaker than his raising range if we bet out again and tried to 3-bet the turn.

The important thing is to manipulate the villain into folding one pair hands that beat us, not high cards and flush draws that technically beat us but are really just bluff/semi-bluff hands from the villain’s perspective. Double barreling the turn gets the wrong hands to fold, which is why I like check/raising.

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John Kugelman Reply:
April 1st, 2010 at 8:02 am

Also a quick thought on ranges: most people have far too many bluffs and semi-bluffs in their bet/bet/bet range; they play their draws very aggressively, double barreling the flop and turn to maximize fold equity. Yet they get tricky with their sets, flopped straights, etc. Or they don’t triple barrel top pair, opting for pot control at some point.

Conversely most people’s turn check/raise range is overly strong. Tons of sets and flopped monsters, not a whole lot of top pairs or draws.

Check/raising a draw on the turn is a good way to balance both ranges.

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_CityBorn_ Reply:
April 1st, 2010 at 9:26 am

this is a very good point in general. but it assumes that the opponents are tracking and focused on this information in a long run sort of way. especially in this quiz, it seems like the goal here to get someone who is prob playing by the book to fold. check raise is strong, but risky, whereas a lead is likey to take it down if he’s holding anything but the top end of his range. hes unlikely to raise….a nit who is multitabling would only raise the strongest of holdings, and a call would signal both that were beat right now, that hes not going away and that we can almost certainly get value from him on the river if we hit. we get the fold equity now and all the info we need for the next street with less risk.

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Pirate21 Reply:
April 1st, 2010 at 9:30 am

Very solid analysis John – I like your line here. It’s dangerous against a small part of V’s range, but should be good against most – and the great thing is we’ll know just where we stand before the river card comes.

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samo Reply:
April 1st, 2010 at 10:48 am

Well thought-out. I opted to lead 1/2 pot ($22) as more of blocking bet, which is obviously vulnerable to a C-R. CR a wet flop more likely to indicate a draw, however CR the turn against this type of opponent is much stronger. Factor-in the couple of big pots lost on the riv and I think the CR is right-on.

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Not seeing how the turn has provided us with any extra outs… As is, I bet over half pot on the turned overcard to try to represent AK.

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Voted to lead, but swayed by John K’s post.
I’ll go along with the C/R line.

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Nelson Reply:
April 1st, 2010 at 9:48 am

This is a post for Cityborn, Pirate21, and Kugelman – Why aren’t you guys famous yet? I mean, I’m kinda joking, but really, you guys always have some of the smartest most thought out reasoning to these quizzes. I consider myself a pretty strong player, but I almost always learn something new reading your posts and I greatly appreciate your input everyday. So what gives? Just no big scores yet? No bankroll to play in any big tournys? Thats my problem – bankroll. I don’t really have the time or patience to grind up a roll with small stakes, and I don’t exactly have enough spare cash to be playing big tournys every weekend. Some day though…

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Pirate21 Reply:
April 1st, 2010 at 12:37 pm

For me…. mostly because it’s easier applying these theories to a quiz than a real game. In the quizzes I’m less prone to stupid mistakes due to time constraints and/or emotional actions. Plus _ I don’t usually play for enough $$ to see my name in lights.
While we’re kissing up… I’ll throw out some props to Loki and Samo too – you guys are often spot on.
And Kugelman says something about once/week that cracks me up

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_CityBorn_ Reply:
April 1st, 2010 at 1:21 pm

Thanks Nelson,

For me, I just dont get to play enough. A day job in NYC 2 and a half hours from a casino means I cant spend the time building up a real roll. Im not a fan of the online game either. Used to play but cashed it all out.

I agree with you, theres always something to learn, which is why I come here.

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samo Reply:
April 1st, 2010 at 2:08 pm

City – I take it you play AC. I live in NJ and play the Harrah’s properties in AC, usually Bally’s. Their poker room needs a major make-over, but good comps, weaker players (in general), and the entire room shares the BB jackpot. They also allow a $1k max buy-in for the $2-$5. I am still working the kinks out at $1-$3.

_CityBorn_ Reply:
April 1st, 2010 at 3:04 pm

at AC its usually the taj just because of the amount of tables. Good game selection and lots of weak play. Lately its been Foxwoods. 2/5 cash and whatever tourneys theyre running. $500 max buyin at the 2/5 and pretty weak comp there too. Ive had one losing session in the last year+.

Anonymous Reply:
April 1st, 2010 at 2:38 pm

ha ha ha ha ha ha!

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Jeff Reply:
April 1st, 2010 at 5:06 pm

@City

I’m in central CT and make frequent trips to both Foxwoods and Mohegan.

Foxwoods has 96 tables (tho they only open them all for the FW Poker Classic and WPT events). Mohegan returned to poker w/in the last year and has 42 available.

As for game play, Foxwoods’ 1/2 and 2/5 were never overly difficult, but Mohegan is super juicy now. It’s a much nicer casino, imo, and a lot of bad players are migrating over there b/c of the atmosphere. Those that remain at foxwoods are the regulars who I guess feel a sense of loyalty. Mohegan has a higher percentage of casual fish. You should really check it out

Thought on multi-tablers: most are thoughtless nits as you say, playing tight poker to take down big pots from those wonderful fish online who call anything all the time.
A few multi-tablers, however, are actually very good poker players who realize that firing up 3-4 tables means they are playing a meaningful hand every couple of minutes while folding tons of trash. For these people, a nice general rule is that whenever they seem interested in the hand they have something worth being interested in. Therefore, I might suggest two different approaches here.
For multi-tabling nit: go ahead and bet because V will not go to war unless he/she has a good hand, so you will fold out a wide range of hands such as 6′s, 8′s, 99, JJ and some weak Q’s as well as draws and air.
For the good multi-tabler (who still plays tight): check-raise to gauge interest in the hand and fold out a larger range of V’s hands. If V checks behind I would be inclined to say “disinterested V” over “huge trapping V” and H could fire again on the river (almost) regardless of the card.

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Loki Reply:
April 1st, 2010 at 10:41 am

@Me. What would I do here? Lead. I like to lead. It adds fold equity and means bigger payoffs when I have pocket 8′s. The latter part of that sentence is more of a live game tactic where you can show down busted draw bluffs.

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@ Loki

While your characterization of Multi tablers is probably accurate at the lower levels (ie: .1/.25, .25/.5), I think you are not giving enough credit where credit is due.

the 1/2 online games play a lot tougher than their live counterparts. A MTT player at this level will be running PT3 or HEM and is not going to be as nitty as you may think, especially from position. They are going to be 3betting with air or semi-bluffs at a higher percentage especially given your aggro image.

As such, I think a CR is a much stronger line here that will illicit a bluff and fold out single pair hands.

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This talk of multi tablers being very straight forward or bad is a bit odd. I always assume until proven otherwise that anyone playing 3 tables or fewer is a fish. People playing more than about 10 tables I would expect to be playing quite predictably, but this is not always the case. I reckon the best players usually play about 4-8 tables.

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Jeff Reply:
April 1st, 2010 at 5:12 pm

I have a few buddies who 24 table the .1/.25 and .25/.50 games professionally. They’re not living in the lap of luxury but are able to average a substantial bb/100 and save A TON of rake otherwise submitted to a live casino.

Currently, Foxwoods charges a nominal 10 bucks/hr to play while only being dealt 35 hands/hr… Even the best 1/2 live players cant make enough money to play professionally at these stakes.

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_CityBorn_ Reply:
April 1st, 2010 at 9:51 pm

in general, what kind of professional would play 1/2 live? 1/2 live is for casual players and low stakes players who dont have any money. 2/5 is pretty much the minimum, and i only rarely see a pro type player at my table. id think 10/20 and up.

also, foxwoods uses a standard rake now, not a time charge. they changed that a while back. and the dealers keep tips, so the hands per hour have picked up.

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Jeff Reply:
April 2nd, 2010 at 9:21 am

Yea i have no idea if anyone can play 1/2 live professionally. My point was to illustrate how online games play much higher than their respective live denominations