Daily Hand Quiz

BB probably has a weak made hand (very likely) a busted draw (very likely), a combination of the two (j8, jT) or trapping w/ a monster (not very likely – should’ve raised flop or turn w/ this board, or bet the river at least). Shoving probably folds out his range that we beat. A small bet of like 200k offers irresistable odds to jx hands, and may look like we don’t want to commit ourselves inducing a shove from the busted draws.

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Check behind.

We have no read on our opponent and he’s in the BB, so he could have anything. There aren’t many credible busted draws out there – the only one other than QT is a gutshot, and I can’t see him check calling that all the way down. If he had 8-6 he’s now ahead.

Sure, he might have top pair but I don’t think it’s worth the risk when we know nothing about his style. If we try a value bet and he shoves – then what? We’re priced in and our aces are likely to be cracked.

A small value bet looks timid and offers little gain in proportion to the dangers it could present. If we’re called by a better hand we’re losing a good portion of our remaining stack when we could have limited the damage. The only hand we’re beating that would call such a bet is a single pair and it’s pure speculation as to whether that’s what he’s holding. It’s possible he might be calling loose and will make a move, but can we take that risk against an unknown opponent? With any bet here we need to be prepared to put our tournament life on the line, and I’d prefer to have more information on my opponents before I put myself in that situation.

Our range is pretty obvious given our image and UTG raise. Maybe he’s calling down a pair thinking we’re on AK, or maybe he’s walked into a monster and is trapping, we can’t be sure. I’m happy with a £1.2m pot if we’re ahead – check it down.

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WasteOfPaint Reply:
March 26th, 2010 at 5:20 am

Just noticed we weren’t UTG, but we’re still EP so the point still stands.

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_CityBorn_ Reply:
March 26th, 2010 at 7:19 am

we didnt raise, which makes a big difference. v has no reason to believe we have a big hand.

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“Two players fold, and you limp.”

Sigh…

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Agree with Pete. Why would you limp AA when you don’t have a read on an opponent late in a tourney? It’s tough to outplay someone with no read, especially when it’s from a blind that could have J6 or 92. Get some chips in there or make everyone fold and move on.
I think your stack size makes this a check because any bet you make that isn’t minuscule commits your stack. If we had 2.0 mil behind then I would bet 2/3ish for value because I think this guy has a weak J or something like TT, 88. But pulling in this pot with no further risk already puts you 33% above the average stack size, so check it down.
I think that this is one of the classic cases a lot of poker strategists talk about when a check has no risk and there is already money in the pot, but a bet by H either makes a worse hand fold or a better hand take your money.

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Loki Reply:
March 26th, 2010 at 6:26 am

I would like to add that if this an extremely active, tough table and every preflop pot is being raised and 3 bet, then the limp is fine IF it is not going to telegraph your hand.

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you have to value bet here. the paired 6 helped since now youre beating a flopped 2 pair, and its just playing out like the guy is calling you down stubbornly. our hand is disguised, he has no idea where we’re at, and the action is playing like we have something mediocre…..so although checking is the safe play, betting is the right play. you have to get value for your hands when all signs indicate chips will come your way. not gaining chips is the same as losing them, and if you want to make a real run toward the top, youre gonna need all the ammo you can get.

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I’m betting this, but amount is a bit tricky.
I expect V to have lower 2-pr and probably busted draw to go with it.
Shove folds out a lot of hands we beat, so I’m probably putting in about half my stack and calling if/when he shoves over the top.

BTW… stop limping from EP with aces. Or else stop complaining when you get them cracked by BB with something like 8-10 off.

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Voted to bet under half the pot. I’d make it 375K and give ~4-1 to V.

There is risk in that this is a limped pot. However, a really solid player makes the value bet here, trying to extract the maximum with a disguised hand. I think a monster like a set or J6 is going to c-r the turn, especially considering stack size diff and hero’s tight image (QQ+ would likely go AI).

A danger is certainly 86 which would have called the flop/turn, however a larger sample of their calling range is Jx and 9x. I doubt the latter would call, but fairly sure the former would.

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Jeff Reply:
March 26th, 2010 at 8:48 am

I agree with the under 1/2 pot.

I just can’t believe he has any significant hand based on his check-call line.

Wouldn’t he AT LEAST lead the river? He can’t expect us to fire a 3rd time w/ AK or Jx.

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I’m all in. I want maximum value if his two pair just got counterfeited, and I’m not folding to a raise anyways so let’s just commit all the chips. Betting less than all in is too value-y looking for my taste.

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With him not raising pre-flop suggests a weak hand so i would be worried about him having a 6 and coming back with the re-raise.

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Jeff Reply:
March 27th, 2010 at 4:30 pm

please tell me you’re joking

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Pirate21 Reply:
March 29th, 2010 at 8:45 am

Sure, makes perfect sense….
Call sizeable flop bet with low end of straight draw (at best), then pretty hefty turn bet with bottom pair + straight draw – all so you can back into a river set.
Definitely sounds like the kind of winning poker that would make a run deep in an MTT.
I’d have an easier time buying JJ.

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Btw, people who are advocating betting less than all in, are you planning to fold to a shove? Because if not you’re going to have to lose twice as much when your opponent has a better hand than you gain when he has worse, as he’s always going to shove over when he has you beat. While the preflop is obviously awful I think there’s enough weaker hands to justify shipping, especially since that 2nd 6 fell.

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Morat Reply:
March 29th, 2010 at 7:56 am

I think what you said is the case for shipping, where only better hands will call you. Not that I’m too concerned about it: our hand is face up, but we didn’t get raised, nor bet into, so we must be good here more than 90%+ of the time (10%- is the usual case when a fish gets all my chips). I’m more concerned about losing value from Jx type hands (most of BB’s range I guess), that might make a crying call if the odds are tempting. If I bet small on the river (representing weakness) I will have to call a shove, since it is partially what I wanted/induced and I really think that a frustrated BB will bluff here far more often than wake up with a real hand after checking three times incl. the river.

Your previous comment about limping AA in EP pretty much sums up my opinion.

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1) Check = not lose extra, but no extra win = lose

2) raise more than 1/2, if BB has beat, you lose; if BB has not, he will most likely fold, again no extra win = lose

3) raise less than 1/2, if BB has beat, he might raise or even all in; if BB has not, he might check you, and that is how we win.

All in all, it is based on that the BB has no strong read, and you image is fairly tight.

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