Daily Hand Quiz

Not that I would have voted for fold but it is an option. Voted raise. Put vall in now and be done with it.

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Interesting maths. You shove, he’s just about got the odds to call with a flush draw. If he’s got anything better than a naked flush draw he’s insta-calling, so I don’t see the point raising.
Call and stick it in if the turn is a non heart.

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John Kugelman Reply:
March 19th, 2010 at 6:43 am

This.

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Pete Reply:
March 19th, 2010 at 8:17 am

This reasoning is retarded. If someone raises 2/3 of their stack and you have AA, should you not put them all in because they’d have the right price to call? If they have a flush draw then you are ahead, so the more money that goes in the better it is for you.

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John Kugelman Reply:
March 19th, 2010 at 1:30 pm

We profit when our opponents make mistakes. If you can get them all in on the turn when they’re NOT getting the right price then we do even better than getting them all in on the flop. Plus we lose less when a heart hits. It’s unlikely we’ll get bluff shoved on if another heart comes out so we can make an easy fold.

Lose less if the flush hits, stack off if not, win/win in my book.

The downside, if there is one, is that the villain might fold KhKx or similar on the turn where they would stack off on the flop. Getting a guaranteed 100% of the pot isn’t so bad, though.

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Pete Reply:
March 21st, 2010 at 12:53 pm

1. Why are you assuming that villain will get all in on the turn with a flush draw if he’s not getting the right price?

2. Why are you assuming that villain always has a heart? We could easily fold the best hand on a heart turn.

Just assuming that he does have a flush draw

samo Reply:
March 19th, 2010 at 9:47 am

Agreed. Assuming v has something like QQh, they have 11 outs or ~4-5 dog. I’d like to see a turn, and if a non-heart, get the $ in as ~4-1 fav rather than a 5-4 fav. If a heart falls on the turn, fold to a bet … top pr/top k not good enough to play on. In general, I don’t like flipping for big pots in cash games with only a pair. Prefer to settle for a smaller pot as a bigger fav.

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_CityBorn_ Reply:
March 21st, 2010 at 6:06 pm

there are two flaws in this analysis. one is that it doesnt take into account that him being only a 4~5 dog with QhQx now means over TWO streets. he is just as unlikely to hit a draw on the turn, as he would be to hit it on the river there fore if you figure he’ll fold after the turn if he misses, youre a 4 to 1 fav now. get the value out of him now if hes making the same mistake you are, thinking hes drawing to 11 outs twice….and then fold him out on the turn or let him continue making mistakes then.

the second mistake is thinking that with a missed draw after the turn, he would still be willing to put money in, so youre getting it in as a 4 to 1 fav at that point. that is very unlikely to happen with a strong regular.

everyone seems stuck on folding him out. should be focused on getting value, thats what cash games are about.

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I like the maths too….

But I also think we can get him to fold some flush draws which have good equity against us….

I figure:
If he has an Ace with a big heart he is unlikely to fold
If he has a big pair with a heart he might well fold… and given we have a K that makes KKh less likely… QQh or JJh possible and also possible folds.

So I think I would shove… but also think call and bet non heart turn is fine.

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the sage Reply:
March 20th, 2010 at 4:25 am

you think you’re folding out QQh….wow, can I come live in your world, must be fricken cool there.

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I don’t think Kh is ever folding this spot. With 100BB stacks, I prefer to take a lower-variance line and call / shove the turn. As is, He has ~50BBs remaining and I push all in here, praying for a non-heart turn / river.

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I like the call then shove any turn thats not a heart option…but…since he is first to act – What would everyone do if we call his flop bet and then he shoves the turn? Fold if its a heart? Call if its not a heart? Interesting spot. Would we be priced in at that point?

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Pirate21 Reply:
March 19th, 2010 at 8:25 am

You make a good point Nelson – the opportunity to put V to the test is probably now only. Assuming V’s hand is strong, he’s shoving almost any turn.
I think we’d have to fold to a heart and call otherwise.

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I’m shoving now. There’s only a couple hands in V’s range that are ahead of us – AA, 88, and made flush (unlikely due to betting action as made flush would have to be something like KQ which would be nut flush – why would he bet so strong?). Anything else is essentially drawing to beat us and there’s enough possibilities that I want to give him an opportunity to fold now.

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_CityBorn_ Reply:
March 20th, 2010 at 7:29 am

we open raised the button against a strong villain in the bb. any strong villain could play back at a button raise with any two cards. there is way more than aa, 88, and a made flush that beat us here. im not saying we’re not ahead, i think we are and the strength of our hand is nicely disguised. im just saying there are a lot more hands than that to worry about. there are 3 set possibilities… any 2 pair combo, and any combo draw that is ahead percentage wise. just because he’d have to outdraw us doesnt mean hes not a favorite to win. thats a lot of hands.

im still raising here cause i think im ahead and v could make a mistake. but im well aware we could be in trouble or putting a lot of money in as a slight dog.

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Pirate21 Reply:
March 21st, 2010 at 9:38 am

Yes, of course there are more hands that beat us than those I mentioned – but we have to try and rule some out to narrow V’s range. I just don’t think the others seem very likely given the action to this point. I guess I can accept adding 44 to the mix, but the 2-pr options(A8, A4, 84) don’t fit to me. Made flush still seems unlikely as well.

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samo Reply:
March 20th, 2010 at 5:23 pm

I don’t think we can read anything into the bet size, which is a fairly standard 2/3 c-bet. V could have total air, but repping a hand like Ax, or Khx and hoping to take it down now. Hero open-raised, so v believes our range is much wider.

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Pirate21 Reply:
March 21st, 2010 at 9:45 am

I think we can rule out large made flushes by the bet size (KQ, KJ, QJ, etc…) as V would want us to stick around a bit. Smaller made flushes are still possible, but would mean V made a fairly loose reraise PF. Ax or Khx are more in line with what I expect to see and I’m raising both of those now while I’m pretty sure I’m ahead.

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We are over thinking this, We have a hand but we don’t know if we are good or not. We think we are so lets protect our hand and shove.

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the sage Reply:
March 20th, 2010 at 4:18 am

I’m pretty sure we’re supposed to think dude

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RAISE AND STACK THIS FOOL. You are a favorite against his hand range, you can beat pocket pairs that missed.

Sets and flushes can only beat you.

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well in this option w/o the fold; I would just call its obvious that he has a pocket pr maybe qq kk with 1 of them being the heart so more than likely kk b/c if the 4th heart hits he’s got the nuts. Its not worth it to raise and that heart hit! NOw maybe on the turn if the heart doesnt hit then I might barrel!

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so i guessed right now what?

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It really surprised me that no option for “fold” here. LOL

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