Daily Hand Quiz

The poor flop bet and being OOP makes things hard for this one. Basically any spade and any pair could call flop so you don’t have any clue what v has. Given that you had two opponents both having cca 45% chance to have a spade, I’d say there’s a 70% chance that v has a flush now.
You can’t lead, because leading is turning the set into a bluff with little to no chance of folding out better and getting paid by worse.
On the other hand checking screams “I don’t have a spade! I don’t have a spade!” which opens up bluffing opportunities for hands like QJ (no spade).
Although it’s not 100% that we are beaten, I prefer to view my hand as a drawing hand w/ 10 outs and a great chance to get paid if I hit. On the other hand, you don’t have enough FE for a semibluff. To me c/c turn, c/f river unimproved seems to be best.

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the sage Reply:
March 11th, 2010 at 6:12 am

flop bet sucks. hero = donkey. what now ? agree w/ you, we have no info, and hating life. Yet all is not lost, our 10 outer helps, and I think we can fold out weaker flushes, this is a $200 buy-in and our donkey bet could help us rep a big flush. Plus it’s a re-buy. If we’re playing $200 re-buys, we’ve got a bankroll, and lets hope some skills.
We’re not check-folding here, if we check, it’s easy for V to bet with air, so if we are prepared to check-call, why not lead?
I say toss out a bet for 800 or so, looks suspiciously like a value bet, and how we would play a nut flush. If we get re-raised large, toss it, we’ve still got 26 BBs. If we get re-raised small for value, we may have the implied odds to call, and if we get flat called by a big flush, the old 10-outer is still there.

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Pirate21 Reply:
March 11th, 2010 at 10:26 am

“I say toss out a bet for 800 or so, looks suspiciously like a value bet, and how we would play a nut flush.”

Not sure I’d lead out with the nut flush here since I don’t want to scare off weaker flushes. Much rather try and induce a bet by checking the turn…

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Well that disastrous flop bet has us in a hole. I’d take one more shot and lead for $600 representing a value bet. May get us cheaply to the promised land when the riv pairs. Checking leaves open the possibility of getting bluffed, and agree with The Sage – if we c-c, may as well set the bar with a lead amt. If raised big, fold. c-f a big hand vs. an active player seems weak, which is another reason to lead. c-r is risky as you are likely behind to a flush with a 1 in 5 chance of sucking-out.

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You bet 300 into 900? Hero needs to quit playing poker.

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Pete Reply:
March 11th, 2010 at 11:39 am

this

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Im with the lead contingent. im looking at it as a blocking bet, repping a big flush and hoping to boat up if we get called. unless v has ace or king hes not raising.

i agree, normally id never lead 300 on the flop, but in this case, i dont think it was a bad move. i dont think anyone who called for 300 wouldve folded for 600, and now our small lead on the flop actually helps. it looks exactly like we were trying to build the pot up for when we hit our draw, so our blocking bet/ semi bluff has more cred.

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I think the case for lead and check-call are both reasonable. I voted check call mostly to try and control the pot size and minimize my investment in what’s likely a losing hand.
I agree with most about the flop bet – hero really needed to price out the draws on that board, not price them in.

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I voted lead. Play your big hands aggresive. That’s what D.B. says. If you get reraised. Well then it comes down to your reading ability.

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