Well, I can categorically say that I have very little idea of where I’m at. I know I’m not folding top pair plus third nut flush draw plus open ended straight draw when I’m getting 5-1, but I’m disturbed by the bet sizing, 750 into 3000.

Raising here is essential going to commit my whole stack, and I don’t like that, given I really don’t know where I’m at.

I know calling here gives me no info, but I’m going to go ahead and call anyway, re-evaluate on the river, if I miss I’m likely folding. If I hit and V shoves I’m spending some quality time in the tank.

Mid stage, shrinking stack…shove it and hope for the best.

Agree with kaimono. Shove and pray. Stack is right size for that. River decision will be hard so put V to the test now.

I’ll CRAI. The 25% pot-bet may be a blocking bet, or a value bet which would only occur if the v flopped the nut flush. A straight, KQ, K10, small flush are likely to protect hand with a larger bet. Hero has M<7 and the pot almost doubles-up … shove.

I agree with the CRAI. Looks pretty strong and with a smallish stack I think this is a good spot to put villain to the test. Makes sense what Samo said about the villain betting more if they actually had something that they wanted to protect. Time to take it down now, get called and double up, or bust and go make a sandwich.

Absolutely agree - shove it now. We could be ahead, but if not we have a number of redraws to win or chop. I’m not convinced v is very strong here - could easily just be taking a stab at a pot nobody seems to really want (though his smallish bet says he doesn’t want it that bad either).
If we don’t take the chance now, pretty good chance we don’t get a better one before we’re critically low.

Agreed w/ the shove.

Regardless of whatever hand we have, I feel confident V has crap and will fold.

What could he possibly have here? Nut flush is the only thing i can come up w/… A smaller flush would want to protect against another diamond, and any TP, 2pair, straight or sets is also going to want to bet more significantly, especially on the turn.

I just can’t imagine he has anything we can’t beat right now. I’m shoving with confidence.

Call.

I can see the reasoning for a shove, there are a fair amount of drawing hands we’d want out, plus we can represent the straight or a big hand ready to end it by pushing now, and we might get 2 pair hands or even sets off their hand. Opponent isnt playing this like 2 pair or set though. Hhe seems to be blocking, or trying to induce a shove, so Im figuring him for a made hand or a draw.

Heres why I chose call:

First of all, we could easily be way behind a made flush or straight, and Im confident that I can get to showdown pretty cheaply here regardless of opps hand, so id rather not risk elimination. He’s likely to value bet a big hand, or want his bluff to continue looking valueish, so I expect a reasonable river bet either way. This is the mid stages of an MTT, long road ahead….dont bust here with a hand like top pair mediocre kicker hoping to improve.

If hes drawing: Even though Im risking letting him draw to a better hand, Im gaining value when he misses the vast majority of the time and fires a river shot.

If he has a made hand: I dont know if he’ll call a shove with a 2 pair hand or set, he very well might as we have no read. Hes definitely calling with a straight or flush. If any of the above is true, we’re likely to hit the rail. If we call here though, we pressure him into making a value bet since he wont know what we have and will want to keep us in.

Ultimately shoving is only likely to scare out hands that are worse than ours, while getting called by hands better than ours…..and since worse hands than ours are also likely to fire bluffs on the river, I like keeping the pot under control, paying less if im behind and extracting a bit more if im ahead.

What makes this a tough spot is that there is virtually no card that clinches this hand for us, but a lot of cards improve our hand. Any card that improves our hand could also improve the villains though…. and because of that uncertainty Im content with pot control the whole way. Keep the risk to a minimum and collect if my hand is best.

I might fire on the river if V checks though. At that point Im figuring he either missed or has a scared hand I can get him off it would pretty much be a bluff, hoping to get 2 pair or the like off the hand.

_CityBorn_ Reply:
February 25th, 2010 at 4:00 pm

Ah, got the positions mixed up so scratch that last part. Im check calling the river regardless of river card.