Daily Hand Quiz

Yeah, how come it seems like this always happens with JJ/QQ.
So, let’s start with v is likely raising somewhat light here trying to either steal the pot or isolate. Range is probably at least 66+ / AT+. Being ahead of most of that range, I’d be okay with playing heads up with player F. What I’m not crazy about is the other 3 players still left to act.
Since a raise will have to be all in, I think I’m likely to end up in a coin flip for my whole stack. So it really comes down to whether I want to take that chance this early or just surrender my blinds and look for a better spot. Realistically I probably shove or fold here about an equal percent of times depending how I feel at that moment and I probably second guess myself for it most of the time.

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I don’t think you can fold QQ here. Top of Player F range is probably 99+, AQs, so hero is right in the middle. No strong read on F, but think you have to give credit to a 3-bet equivalent to ~30% of stack, after a couple of callers. I can see RAI, but will opt to call instead hoping to price other pairs in, building the pot, and set-mining at nice pot/implied odds. If there is a 4-bet, fold. If unders flop, check and evaluate.

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Pirate21 Reply:
February 15th, 2010 at 5:16 pm

What do you think about stop & go in this spot? Shove almost any flop???

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samo Reply:
February 15th, 2010 at 7:37 pm

No, I think the RAI is stronger. The Sage is correct, the implied odds (unless you believe winning this hand will directly propel you to the money) are not there due to the stack sizes, so calling is not a good play.

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meh Reply:
February 16th, 2010 at 12:57 pm

plus, what happens if 1 or more of the players left to act raise? Can you fold there?

At end of the day, there is no fold equity here so RAI and s&g play the same. If you enter this hand, do not expect to get a fold.

good quiz. this one looks marginal, but i’m going to go ahead and shove here. gotta think that the CO is looking at a bit of dead money in the pot, so i’m adjusting his range down for that. I can’t find a fold, although I wouldn’t fight with people that could, and calling just increases the probability that C, D or E call behind. You’re OOP post flop, so decision becomes lead-shove or check-fold, ugly either way. No implied odds for set mining here with the amount of money in pre-flop relative to stack sizes.
I don’t like it much, but I’m closing my eyes and sticking it all in.

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People want to flip for their life this early in the tournament? Fold.

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shove all in and pray theyre all holding AK off

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Shove.

I actually like our FE here. We’re getting a lot of credit for QQ+ and player F can still get a away with 6k+ behind.

A lot of the chatter has been advocating against flipping for our tourney life, well the same can be said for player F. With AK, he knows he’s facing 3 possible hands, two of which crush him and the other he’s still trailing.

I like the shove and expect a fold from AK. If he’s got KK or AA, well shit. Thats just bad luck.

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the sage Reply:
February 15th, 2010 at 11:55 pm

spot on. Player F is getting 2-1 on his money, but I still think he could find a fold with AK. C, D and E all insta-fold AK.
Curious as to how you think C, D or E would fare with KK. Unlikely, but a nit could find a fold with KK with re-raise and re-reraise behind….looks a lot like Aces, you’ve only got 600 in, and its for your tourney life…..

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Jeff Reply:
February 16th, 2010 at 12:05 am

Well E certainly doesn’t have KK and I’m not really sure i’d be comfortable flatting w/ KK if I were D either, but who knows.

Either way, i’d be hard pressed to fold KK unless i’m POSITIVE another player has AA. I’d be searching every poker db for that players’ stats before i make any decision that’s for sure.

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Since we have NO strong read on the original 3-bettor, we can put villian on a range of hands such as AA, AK, KK, QQ, and JJ.

Pokerstove roughly gives us 47.4% vs 52.6% for the hand ranges above that we can put villian on. A call, or raise is +EV with all the money in the pot, especially with fold equity. Even though we are a slight underdog with QQ, the money put out justifies any raise or call.

If there was a choose all the above option, I would probably choose that because calling and raising is mathematically correct. Folding is correct in a strategical sense for future situations where one will find better spots. For example being the original 3-bettor with QQ is the more superior spot to be in.

Avoiding coin flips is also a very good idea because there are better opportunities to come in such a deep stacked tournament. Maintaining a large stack is very important, and getting it all-in in this marginal situation puts tournament life in jeopardy.

I really like raising here, but I know for sure that I can obtain chips in better spots. I really wouldn’t be surprised to see villian wake up with KK.

If we had a tiny bit more info on villian, like him stealing a lot, then I would shove or 4-bet.

Voted fold, sorry D:

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Jeff Reply:
February 16th, 2010 at 12:33 am

Good analysis, but i disgree his range is this tight. With dead money and only fearing KK and AA, I open his range to 99+, AJ+

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horrible spot, the only wrong answer i think is a flat call. that would be pretty terrible play in just about every way. I opted fold but can definitely see it being a good shove, just a question of whether you want to gamble it up this early. That argument often comes down to whether you have an edge or not – i suppose in the sunday million i wouldn’t expect to have an edge over the field so it might actually be a good spot to get it in and gamble. On the other hand i can only assume i had to satellite in and i dunno if i could risk it so early after putting all that effort in…

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