Daily Hand Quiz

First I’ve thought it’s close between calling and folding, but the more I think about it the more I like a small raise. I think you’re up against a draw, a queen (AQ-QT) or a bluff (incl. middle pair, gutshot). I guess you’re about 30-35% to win on the river. The problem is, you don’t really know what kind of draw you’re up against, which means that there are too many scarecards on the river: any flush card, any 3,4,9 can complete a straight, any 6 can give the opp. two pair, any A-K is also dangerous. That’s a total of 29 scare cards on the river. So:
1) Calling can be correct based on immediate pot odds but it’s impossible to call most rivers. If your opponent is a TAG he should know that and fire any scare card. So calling is -EV.
2) Raising big could be an option, but it would commit you to the pot with less then 50% winning chance (any draw and any Q should 3bet you, since you cannot represent much).
3) Folding seems too weak as opp.’s range can be very wide (a Q being only a small part of it) and most probably you are winning at the moment (even though you cannot tell what you’re up against).
4) Raising small seems donkish at first sight, since you cannot kill drawing odds obv. However you can take the initiative and see a cheap showdown and shouldn’t worry about being pushed out of the pot on the river. If you get called and bet into on the river, you can fold safely.

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McCowish Reply:
December 10th, 2009 at 8:11 am

“That’s a total of 29 scare cards on the river. So:
1) Calling can be correct based on immediate pot odds but it’s impossible to call most rivers. If your opponent is a TAG he should know that and fire any scare card. So calling is -EV.”

Errr…If he is going to fire any scare card, it is +EV to call now and call the river because
1.You are ahead now.
2. If he would fire on ANY river scarecard, no matter what he has…
A.You will have him beat >50% of the time.
B.bluff pot odds

Thus you are priced in as calling vs his firing range is +EV.

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I like raising to like 72, I’m not sure if that counts as “small” or “large”. I think we are ahead of villain most of the time, and Morat is on the right track saying that there are alot of bad river cards for us. Furthermore, raising here looks like a really strong line. I think villain likely folds Q-x which is great for us, and also A7 A5 76 and 65 which while behind have outs against us.

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I’d make a large raise here because my objective is to take it down now. I’d bet $66. If v 3-bets I’d fold; if called I think we are behind so I’d check-fold on most rivers.

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small raise to find out where we are at. calling in not winning poker.

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McCowish Reply:
December 10th, 2009 at 12:29 pm

“calling in not winning poker.”

show me the math.

Also, if you bet/fold, semibluff with Ac6c, Kc6c will push you out.

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cada.yang.gold-LEGENDS Reply:
December 10th, 2009 at 4:08 pm

i’d reraise it to at least 44-75$

if we get repopped we can fold if we feel we’re beat

or repop/rehove if we feel if v is getting tricky.

i don’t like flat calling to see a 4th connector card or a club and then the villan fires big on river then you just gotta muck jacks most the time

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i would not have played this hand the way hero did preflop or on the flop. Since we’ve flat called the whole way though, i like calling all the way down from here. pot control. we’ve given him every reason to think we’re weak and he can buy the pot. which means we’re getting value out of inducing him to bluff if we’re ahead, and minimizing the damage if we’re behind. he’ll bet the river a standard amount with air or with the nuts, since even if he hits a draw, he’ll want to keep his bet reasonable so he doesnt fold us out since we’ve looked so weak.

the only way to get him off a draw would be to raise big, and that just seems ridiculous given the action. we’ll get called by top pair or better and be in big trouble for a lot of money. dangerous and not good risk/reward ratio.

a small raise doesnt really do much except allow him to reraise if hes got a big hand, or value bet us for a bigger amount if he hits a draw. if he misses a draw, he’ll check fold instead of bluff betting which is what we’d want. he’s not folding to a small raise here unless hes got air, in which case we’d want to let him keep firing.

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McCowish Reply:
December 10th, 2009 at 1:38 pm

I agree

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samo Reply:
December 10th, 2009 at 1:45 pm

If we get called after raising big, we know we are behind and would be done with the betting. So, how does calling turn and riv minimize the damage vs. making just one large turn raise to try and take it down?

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McCowish Reply:
December 10th, 2009 at 2:08 pm

Because if we reraise the turn, instead of putting $22 in for the call, we put around $70 100% of the time. That means he will fold when he has pure trash, but he’ll have gotten value out of us with the queen.

Compare that to:

call turn, we put $22 into pot and the pot becomes $76.

River: he bets??? To be in the same position as the turn, he would have to bet $48 100% of the time with a queen or better, and check-fold his trash/bust draws/ lower pairs turned into bluffs. $48/76~ 2/3 pot raise. I’m inclined to think that given our weak line, he will NOT bet 2/3 the pot 100% of the time, and find it indeed unlikely he will bet more than half the pot on the river with a queen, and certainly not that much 100% of the time. Why?>B/C he wants to get paid, and the way we’ve played this handle is highly suggestive of 1010, JJ, Q with very bad kicker. That immediately means we are saving money over a small reraise on the turn. Cityborn also pointed out that we get another chance to get value from his bluffs. Additionally, we don’t fold out to the re-raise shove semibluff of Ac6c, Kc6c on the turn.

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samo Reply:
December 10th, 2009 at 2:34 pm

Thanks for your feedback, I follow. However, if the v is holding just Qx, a raise will take it down here imo. Hero’s perceived range could easily include 2-pair given the way this hand has played. Imo, hero’s hand does not necesarily suggest 1010 or JJ, quite the contrary as those would have most likely 3-bet pre-flop. Additionally, hero is facing a TAG who I don’t necesarily see shoving over the top on a draw.

“if the v is holding just Qx, a raise will take it down here imo.”

I strongly disagree,
A. It’s blind vs blind
B. the board is too wet

“Hero’s perceived range could easily include 2-pair given the way this hand has played.”

As well as 6x, any pair finding out “if it’s good” (exactly what we would be doing)

“Imo, hero’s hand does not necesarily suggest 1010 or JJ, quite the contrary as those would have most likely 3-bet pre-flop.”

You are correct– it is just I am so used to thinking middle pair for someone who flats the Cbet and the turn with that board that my mind jumps there. A healthy portion of the time, a player with 1010 or JJ would repop it pre.

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I agree on “the board is too wet”, but wouldn’t “blind vs. blind” support a hand that beats top pair? Perhaps you are saying that a raise here is too transparent. My point is more likely than not the v did not hit top-pair on the flop; hero has mid-pr; board is now quite moist. Let’s try to end it here.

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It may be blind vs. blind, but our opponent is a TAG and he’s betting the turn on a draw heavy board OOP against a perceived aggro opponent. I don’t think most TAGs are abusing blind battles this far into the hand enough for us to think we are ahead on the turn very often here so I’m inclined to fold. As a TAG he should be considering the fact that we aren’t going to fold a draw, which we very well could have since we flatted in position PF and on the flop. It looks like he’s trying to extract value from us.

That being said, there’s no value left in the hand if you raise. He’s gone with anything worse and we lose our money all other times. If you call there’s possible value from TT,99,66, and A(7,8)(s) since we’ve underepped our hand, but that leaves a lot of cards that beat us on the river making it too difficult to navigate IMO, just fold unless you have a life preserver on in case you sink.

Also, we obviously cannot give him exclusively that range by the turn {55+,AcKc,AQs,A8s-A7s,KQs,QTs+,JTs,AQo,A8o-A7o,KQo,QTo+} That’s where I have him at the turn in a best case scenario, but like I said let me know if you think I’m crazy.

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Let me know if u think i'm crazy Reply:
December 10th, 2009 at 11:28 pm

I forgot to mention that there’s value from AcKc and Ac6c and JTs was not supposed to be in there.

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He prolly has a queen. It’s really that simple. He’s TAG. He’s bet two streets. Sure, he may show up with 99 or 1010 here. But most of the time a regular TAG would check those hands on this board.
You guys are overcomplicating things. In this situation, with this board, the vast majority of the time he will have a queen or better.

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