Daily Hand Quiz

Fold.

Betting that flop was terrible.

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_CityBorn_ Reply:
December 3rd, 2009 at 8:50 am

i couldnt disagree more. i think betting here was perfect. chances are we’re ahead, and we got him to play against our image and put the chips in. of course theres always a chance we’re beat, but i think given the action, the vast majority of the time we’re up against a 7, or 2 high cards.

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black fair Reply:
December 3rd, 2009 at 8:14 pm

We are way ahead or way behind. Like you said if we are ahead here we are dodging very few cards. If we are behind we are crushed.

Check through for pot control.

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This is one of those times where I wish I knew what our opponent’s time is…whether it’s 1 am on thirsty thursedays or 5pm on a monday.

Fold

When I used to make this move on the flop structure of a dry K K x, and I am always full of crap. When I actually have a hand, I take one of 4 lines depending on the opponent.:
A. check-call to the flop, raise the turn,
B. check-call the turn, and raise the river, C. check call the turn, check-raise river.
D. check-raise turn.

I do B mostly.

His play is essentially saying, “I have a king”

Now let’s critique how likely or unlikely that is.
1) There are 2 kings on the board, that reduces the chance one is in his hand.
2) If he had a king here, would he be so kind to tell us?
3) Why doesn’t he let us catch up a little, or let us put more money into the pot on the turn?
4) Size of his bet: why did he shove in? It makes it hard for us to call his all-in, while a mediocre check-raise ie. 500 chips would still have let us bluff at it with mistaken ‘fold equity’.
5) Image: a little loose. The main difference between a tag and lag is a lag’s inclusion of all pocket pairs, Ax suited and Kx suited in his range. It makes it more likely he has a king. Also note our read is loose, not LAG. A lack of aggression otherwise is meant to warn us when there is a big raise.
6)His history: “The table folds to the SB, who calls. He seems to be cold calling PF raises pretty light”. This seems to remind me of a specific general strategy, namely call with everything, hope to flop 2 pair +, then raise like hell-which predominates at .01/.02 holdem.
7) The buyin $150. If you are playing $150 buy-in, you know what a Cbet is, you know what lines are and how to choose different ones.

stage of the tournament: early, phase at which people play for implied odds, though he started hand with about 50xBB.
9) He is putting his tournament life on the line with this move.

Now let’s look at our considerations
1) 99 loses to a lot of pocket pairs/
2) At 48xBB early in tourny, our stack is still very playable-we can fold.
3) Does he have a 7 and is trying to raise to protect his hand? At $150 B-I, I hope not for his sake. So what do we beat? Just a bluff.

I fold here essentially because he is willing to put his tournament on the line here while I am not willing to risk half my stack in this spot versus a typically loose, non-aggressive opponent.

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it just seems like the villain is responding to our aggressive play. 99 should and most likely is good here. call.

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Call. Who check/shoves a K? Nobody. We induced the check/raise bluff by betting a dry paired flop. You don’t induce a bluff and then fold when they do indeed bluff.

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black fair Reply:
December 3rd, 2009 at 8:09 pm

Check-raise all in is absolutely the correct play with a king here.

How else do you stack your opponent here? Look at the stack sizes here.

Going through all the scenarios is a bit tedious to write out so simply consider or possible turn lines of plays, does the person with the king check again allowing opponent to check through making it almost impossible to get it all in on the river?

Do they lead again which will only ever get called and not raised since if we have a king here our opponent almost surely does not and there is a 60% chance of overcard to 7 hitting on turn.

If they lead turn and get called they must then lead shove river. What opponent calls that river bet? Too much strength is being shown by the flop flat call river shove.

If you have a king in this spot the absolute best way to stack your opponent is to check-raise shove. The opponent (us) has an image of being stuck and with two cards to come may well look us up with strong aces and pocket pairs, which is what you are all advocating.

Allowing more cards to come and with no easy lines to set up a pot committed opponent by the river means you must shove your King here.

For what its worth opponent had KQ.

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Jeff Reply:
December 3rd, 2009 at 9:07 pm

how do you know what the opponent ended up having?

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black fair Reply:
December 3rd, 2009 at 9:50 pm

its an old quiz, August 1st 2008.

this is a definite call. i agree with john k. his play doesnt make sense, except for a bluff. theres no good reason for V to check/shove here. he’s playing against an aggressive player who is c-betting a paired board. he figures, and it looks like, we dont have a king so he’s making a play now to maximize his fold equity. if he had it, hed flat call and let us bet the turn. since we’re aggressive and c-betting, he wouldnt want to fold us out by shoving trips here. we’re already getting close to committing ourselves…he’d want to let that happen.

this is where we get paid, unless he hits his 2,3 or 6 outter, in which case we puke and move on.

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black fair Reply:
December 3rd, 2009 at 8:12 pm

“if he had it, hed flat call and let us bet the turn.”

Flat call here with a king then checking the turn is terrible. 70% chance of overcard to 7 hitting. Even an aggressive opponent is checking most turn cards here because it is a way ahead or way behind scenario.

If you flat call here and check the turn opponent will check through almost every time leaving you with no way to get it all in on the river except by an overbet shove which will appear far to strong.

His play makes perfect sense. Best way to get paid of with a K here is the check-raise shove.

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Anytime you hold a pair, seeing another pair on the flop is relatively good, especially for 99. Don’t think a K shoves here and 1010+ is 3-betting pre-flop, so hero is probably ahead. Think also about upcoming play and image, hero can’t fold after c-betting with this hand.

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