
Game type: $50 NL tournament on Pokerstars
Stage of tourney: Nearing bubble
Your image: Nittish
Opponent’s image: Very aggressive
Your hand: A♦J♦
The setup: You’ve dwindled to a short stack as this $50 tournament nears the bubble. A very aggressive opponent raises to 1875 UTG. Two people fold and then a fairly solid player calls. The table folds to you in the SB.
What’s your play? Would your answer change if you held AQs?
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Call. You can still fold if you dont hit and you are getting good odds combined with your perceived image
[Reply]
Raise all in.
Short stacked this is a dream spot.
Essentially we just want to pull off the squeeze play for what is almost a double up of our stack, but should we get looked up AJs has reasonable equity.
[Reply]
_CityBorn_ Reply:
December 1st, 2009 at 7:34 am
exactly
[Reply]
Voted fold. Recognize hero is short, but nearing bubble and prefer not to play this hand against multiple players. Raising (AI) is the only other option imo, as opponents may be making a bubble play. Calling will likely bring in the BB as well, and you are oop.
[Reply]
Raise all in. Only need to dodge the agressive utg raiser, calling and letting 2 other players c flop more dangerous than being dominated against ace king from the utg.
[Reply]
Seat D wants to see a flop. He’s probably afraid of busting before the bubble and even though there will be ~2.3-1 or better on the call I don’t think he’s looking to risk his stack. UTG raise is a real problem. It may be a stretch to think that he’s aggro enough to be taking advantage of the bubble from UTG with a range that we are ahead of.If I give him{22+,A2s+,KQs,QJs,A9o+,KQo} He’s getting like 2.3-1 on his call for a coin flip. We should probably fold. In practice I get impatient from being a Nitt, ship it, and then realize he doesn’t have much more to call with a big stack…
won
Hand 0: 51.592% 47.74% 03.85% 138158087 11137197.50 { AdJd }
Hand 1: 48.408% 44.56% 03.85% 128946894 11137197.50 { 22+, A2s+, KQs, QJs, A9o+, KQo }
[Reply]
Fold
I fold here, for the following reasons:
1) AJ does not beat the midpoint of the standard range of a UTG opener
2) Very aggressive is not loose-if our read on utg was maniac, I would shove.
3) Not only does AJ not beat the midpoint of UTG range, a large swath of UTG’s range dominates AJ.
Things that make us want to play but aren’t enough to offset the above:
1)We are under 10xBB and need to make a move before the next time blinds come around
2)D would more likely reraise if he had a big hand and is thus unlikely to cold call half his stack.
3) there’s 2/3′s our stack already in the pot.
Donk reason) the prettiness of our hand
Would our play change if AQs?
Yes, in that case I would shove
A tight utg range is 50% A10s,KQs, AJ+, 99+
AQs is 49% versus that range. The cold call by D as opposed to a reraise suggests to me he doesn’t have a premium hand and thus we are in good shape if he calls for odds if player A folds as we are only dominated by premium hands. If A doesn’t fold, but either calls our shove or reraises, then D seems unlikely to play. Either way, against player A’s range we are 49% when we would have only needed 33.4%-36.4% to shove with the pot odds for EV break even. With less than 10BB, mathematically in a virtual flip vs range with sweet odds, I’ll shove.
[Reply]
Easy Fold.
AJ is a horrible hand to push with against 2 opponents.
UTG will probably fold, however, Player D is probably sitting on mid->high PP (77-QQ), so he will definitely call.
Now you are 45/55 at best, with a good probability of being dominated by AK, AQ, QQ, JJ.
[Reply]
I think this is a great spot to go all in. The pot is laying you almost 2 to 1 when you go all in. Even if solid player has a pocket pair that you are racing you are getting such a great price. U are crushing UTG range so thats no concern. The fact that you are nearing bubble does influence your decision a bit, but I think this a great spot to push and look for a nice double up which should give you a great chance to win the tournament which is all that matters anyway.
[Reply]
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