Daily Hand Quiz

Sickening.

Our opponent is clearly trying to pot commit us.

I’m not sure I could actually find a fold in this spot, but I think its the right move.

The only hand that we are beating that check-raises here in my opinion is QT. I think big aces lead again.

I think its pretty clear we have a hand here, our opponent has made a check-raise with no where near the fold equity required to bluff us off the hand. Opponent is raising for value we should just fold.

Or we could just do what is clearly expected of us and shove and be shown KJ.

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99 Reply:
November 20th, 2009 at 6:49 am

If you fold this, you might as well stop playing HU poker.

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black fair Reply:
November 20th, 2009 at 9:11 am

yes, yes omg split two pair is the nutz hu.

its extremely unlikely our opponent is check-raising as a bluff, so whats his range?

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99 Reply:
November 20th, 2009 at 11:45 am

a few hands ago, this guy gut HIS ENTIRE STACK IN WITH TOP PAIR (against your set, and sucked out) and now you’re convinced he MUST have something better?

black fair Reply:
November 21st, 2009 at 5:31 am

As I said, I only see one hand we’re beating check raising here.

i asked you what his range is? obviously you’re more comfortable typing in caps arguing with someone elses analysis rather than providing your own.

you and pete may get along.

Pete Reply:
November 20th, 2009 at 10:18 am

“Its extremely unlikely our opponent is check-raising as a bluff”

Why?

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black fair Reply:
November 21st, 2009 at 5:41 am

after the action so far a check raise on the turn is almost never a bluff.

furthermore the size of the bet is one that makes it hard for us to get away from.

in fact it makes us want to shove.

our image is also one that could be tilting, meaning he should expect us to make stubborn class.

so he’s making a move which has little fold equity and commits our stack. he’s check raised a scary board, on the turn.

this is hardly ever a bluff.

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Pete Reply:
November 21st, 2009 at 6:59 am

I see what you’re saying over the bet-sizing, but I’m not totally convinced. It’s possible that he’d shove instead if he was bluffing or semi-bluffing, but I would be hesitant to assume he’s taking such a highly exploitable line without evidence.

I wouldn’t fold here because:

1. We have great pot odds. If we get it in here we only have to be 30% against his range for that to be better than folding.

2.I believe he has some weaker made hands in his range, such as A3s, Q10 and perhaps AK.

3. I believe that he has semibluffs with pair+inside sd in his range.

4. We are near the top of our range. If we fold here (and presumably all weaker hands) we are pretty exploitable

5. We have some redraw equity.

For eg. AT vs AA,QQ,1010,33,KJ,A3s,AK,J10,QJ,KQ comes out to 58% in our favour. I think this is a little optimistic, but even if we take out all of the semi-bluffs we are still 27%, which is only just shy of what we need. I’m pretty confident there’s enough semibluffs/weaker made hands/random aggressiveness in there to make up the 3%.

Given the history, albeit brief, with this player, I think we are committed here. V may think 1 pair and a draw (KQ, K10, QJ) is worth it here; even a weaker ace. In a multi-player game, folding should be a strong consideration. Calling gets more than 1/2 stack in, so might as well get it all in now.

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no way you fold here. not in a million years. we are up against a lag who shoved his entire stack in on top pair not that long ago. we have top two pair heads up. done deal, put it in.

yes yes…i understand, his bet sizing, we dont have the nuts, etc etc. i play tons of heads up. sometimes a guy raises a smaller amount to look like a value raise, but really hes just raising smaller so when he folds he’s lost less. and as far as not having the nuts….top two heads up is a very strong hand. sure, its always possible youre beat, but why would you assume that when the vast majority of holding arent beating you and your opponent is specifically the type who would have a broader than usual range?

obvious shove. id even say flat call if we were in position and i wasnt worried about v backing into broadway….but as it stands, protect your hand and it get it in now to avoid an awkward river.

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as his image is LAG i think i wud call his raise on 4th convinced i had the best hand, hoping he wud bet out again on the river. Now ive got him commited i raise for value, my 2 pair is huge heads up and he has shown he`s willing to get his money in with top pair. If im beat its just a buy in.

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