KQ facing all in re-raise, final table of the Mulligan

DailyHandQuiz

Game type: Sunday Mulligan on Full Tilt Poker, $200 buy in
Stage of tourney: Final Table
Your image: Fairly tight
Opponent’s image: Bad
Your hand: K♥Q♥

The setup: You’re at the final table of the Sunday Mulligan. 8th place gets about 6k and 7th gets around 8k. You haven’t done much in the two orbits since the tournament got to the final table. This hand you get KQs in early position and raise to 2x and change.

The table folds to the SB, who snap shoves. The BB folds.

The SB has been playing pretty loose, flatting a lot of raises preflop and then folding almost all flops, a strategy that has diminished his stack significantly over the last few orbits. His stats show him as a slightly losing player over a few hundred midstakes tournaments.

What’s your play?

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5 COMMENTS (Jump to comment form)

alekhine11

Fold.

[Reply]

Pete

You’d need 38.5% equity to make this a call if it was cash. Since we don’t know the payout structure we can’t make accurate ICM adjustments, but let’s just say they round it up to 40% required. They need to be pushing about 10% of hands or more to give us 40% equity. Given their image it seems like they’re probably not pushing this wide, making this a fold.

[Reply]

Freakstah

Fold – not good odds, hes repopping on a EP raiser, looks pretty strong imo.

[Reply]

catcher

This looks like “any pair, AK” shove from EP. I am not overly worried about AA/KK (still possible though) which would probably raise a bit less and then get the money in at flop, but this would still leave us with a coinflip with a couple of additional hands in the mix that we’re in a pretty bad shape against.

So I would wait for a better spot. Fold.

[Reply]

It’s slightly +cEV to call vs 77+, A9s+, KJs+, ATo+, KQo, he may shove worse pairs too and not shove A9s but that is a decent rehove range with his stack I think to base this off I think. If you are opening this hand it should be with the intention of calling this guys shove, if I aint prepared to call the guys shove then I open fold and wait for reship spots or better hands to open with, with this stack.

Gonna try work out $EV here, noob with this tho so don’t take it too serious.

Ante: 1500
Big Blind: 12000

Payouts:

Place 1: 56192
Place 2: 35680
Place 3: 26193
Place 4: 20616
Place 5: 15809
Place 6: 11322
Place 7: 7476
Place 8: 5553

Before hand:

# Name StackSize Equity

1 hero 237000 16819.81
2 1 359000 20700.27
3 2 1400000 37116.73
4 3 249000 17231.72
5 4 899000 31259.95
6 villain 144591 13045.56
7 6 484000 23905.78
8 7 295000 18761.17

So our tournament equity before the hand is $16819.81.

Our hand wins 40.3% of the time vs that range above so:

59.7% of the time we lose our tournament equity becomes $10608.42, shown below:

# Name StackSize Equity

1 hero 93409 10608.42
2 1 359000 20710.34
3 2 1400000 37002.25
4 3 249000 17219.94
5 4 899000 31181.44
6 villain 319182 19537.09
7 6 484000 23810.84
8 7 295000 18770.69

40.3% of the time we win our tournament equity becomes $22494.48, shown below:

# Name StackSize Equity

1 hero 411591 22494.48
2 1 359000 21127.27
3 2 1400000 37081.22
4 3 249000 17806.26
5 4 899000 31355.79
6 5 484000 24157.21
7 6 295000 19265.75

59.7% of the time we lose our tournament equity becomes $10608.42

40.3% of the time we win it becomes $22494.48

Now, to compare the overall effect of calling, we just need to sum the two occurrences in terms of how they affect our overall tourney equity. If the sum of the two occurences are greater than our current tournament equity we should call. Otherwise, we should fold.

59.7% of the time we lose our tournament equity becomes $10608.42

40.3% of the time we win it becomes $22494.48

[(.5970) * $10608.42] + (.4030 * $22494.48)

$6333.23 + $9065.26

$15398.51

Our tournament equity before the hand was $16819.81, by calling our equity becomes $15398.51. So on average this call will cost us $1421.3 pretty big in -$EV, thus making it a fold.

The above payouts were from the milligan on 18th Ovtober, which I assume is when the tournament was played.

That could be wrong too as I haven’t learnt all this 100% so please tell me if you see anything wrong with it.

I think open fold is best option pre, may aswell open 72o if you have to fold to the shortest stacks reship.

[Reply]