
Game type: $50 rebuy, PokerStars
Stage of tourney: Bubble
Your hand: Q♠7♠
The setup: The bubble breaks when two more players exit this tournament.
You are in last place.
This hand a few players fold and the action is to you with a suited Q7. The SB is a tough tournament regular, but you have no read on the BB. The other players behind you haven’t done much out of the ordinary since you’ve been at the table.
What’s your play? If you fold, what’s your minimum hand for raising in this spot?
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Shove!
This is our best chance to open shove. We will not have the same fold equity ever again.
The big stacks have folded. We are able to open. All the stacks after us are hoping to stay quiet until the bubble bursts.
The image shows the SB as a shorter stack, but I don’t think it changes anything.
Clearly Q7s is a dog of hand. We’re shoving for fold equity here against stacks that won’t be inclined to call us lightly on the bubble. As a contingency however our hand gives us a few outs if we’re called – they are likely live cards and we have the flush draw.
This is a must shove. We will not get a better spot. As the smallest stack in the tourney we cannot wait out the bubble and we have a ton of fold equity here.
[Reply]
black fair Reply:
September 25th, 2009 at 12:19 am
Note the reason we will never have this strong fold equity again is because the BB hits a 60K stack next who will be much more inclined to look us up.
And it gets worse as the BB hits even bigger stacks in the following hands whilst we keep paying antes and then the blinds hit us and then the big stacks are sitting in late position.
Being able to open this hand is a gift.
[Reply]
Actually in this spot shoving ATC is +EV.
[Reply]
agree w BF…..being able to open and shove against smaller (for the table) stacks is indeed a gift that won’t be repeated.
[Reply]
Fold. If everyone folds to a shove, scooping the $3.6k pot does not materially change the hero’s position. I prefer to wait until at least Kx to shove, hope to get lucky and double-up.
[Reply]
Open shove with Q-7? WOW. I understand the theory but do not agree it is +EV by any means. I would rather fold and hope for better holdings then shove with Q7 and praying for folds. We have plenty of hands in front as we are not going to be blinded out in the next orbit. I am surprised 28% would put in there whole stack on such weak holdings and risk being out on the bubble. We can definitely afford to wait for at least an orbit. The bubble will burst soon enough without us helping it.
[Reply]
Anonymous Reply:
September 27th, 2009 at 2:33 am
IF you are folding this hand you are playing way too tight with that stack on the bubble. You have a lot of different things working for you here.
1. First in vigorish: You willing opened the pot by pushing making you seem stronger.
2. Stack size of the blinds: While you certainly are not wanting to go out on the bubble, they certainly do not want to go out before you and if they call and double oyu up chances are that is exactly what will happen.
The other reason you need to push here is because you aren’t playing to make money, you have to play to win. If you fold through the blinds now you are super short and almost anyone will be getting the better of it to try to knock you out. If you push now yes its make or break moment if you get called, but its better than being in a situation where you have to push for like 3 or 4 hands straight if you let the blinds go through you before playing.
[Reply]
You have an M of less than 3. The next hands will put the big stacks in the blind who will likely call you light. This is the perfect opportunity with great fold equity. I will probably push with any two cards with the exception of complete garbage (ie 52o).
[Reply]
First off you are not in last place, because the small blind has less than you. Second off, my decision would depend on what the chip stacks of other short stacks may be.
[Reply]
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