Daily Hand Quiz

Call.

I’ll call here and pray the button doesn’t raise.

A bluff from the BB is not out of the question here but given his image the most likely scenario here is that the BB has caught a small piece of the board and when no-one took a stab at it on the flop he figures any 8 or 10 can take a shot at the pot when a 2 hits on the turn.

Our equity in this pot averages to around a 1 in 3 chance of hitting one of our outs on the river varying based on whether the BB has hit two pair or one pair, and whether he’s holding any of our outs. Even against trips we have 30% equity.

Add to this that we can also assume we have some implied odds when we hit – either by the BB leading again or check-calling a value bet, and I think we clearly have the odds to just call here.

I don’t like raising here because it turns a scenario where we have good odds for a call into a bluff and there is no way we want to get re-raised in this spot.

The only reason to fold here is if we fear the button coming over the top with a big raise and the BB folding.

If we flat call and the button makes a move we’ll still have good odds if the bb comes along.

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Call.

Pretty much agreed with everything black fair said, just that I think it is pretty hard for button to come over the top here.. What kind of a hand would that represent? I.e. what kind of a hand would check behind this flop in position and then go crazy when turn bricks? He must know that he stands to get called pretty light – it could only work if he’s up against complete air and draws.

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black fair Reply:
September 2nd, 2009 at 1:02 am

Agreed.

In considering the scenario of the button coming over the top I neglected to mention I didn’t think it very likely either.

There are a couple scenario’s where he might, say he hit two pair, or he thinks the BB can be forced of the hand with an aggressive bluff.

But for the purpose of deciding what our best play is here I don’t find those scenarios particularly likely.

Like you said catcher, the most telling thing is that the button passed on the opportunity at the flop. Anyone aggressive enough, or with enough of a hand, to come over the top on the turn would’ve likely bet the flop when checked to.

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Obviously never fold.

If we think the BB’s range is weak we should put in a decent sized raise and call a shove. If, as blackfair suggests, he has a lot of one pair hands then he will usually fold and we’ll turn our 40% equity into 100%

If we think the BB’s range is strong we should call; we have good pot odds and excellent implied odds against a strong range.

Standard play would be to raise though.

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Voted call. I think black fair’s analysis nailed it. Can’t fold with numerous outs, including a fairly well-disguised straight. A raise would indicate a draw more than a made hand imo, thus leaving the hero susceptible to a 3-bet which we obviously don’t want given the diff in stack sizes. On a draw in an un-raised pot with un-even stacks is tough to navigate – let’s control the pot-size until we hit; fold if we miss.

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Dmafioso Reply:
January 29th, 2012 at 3:26 am

agreed! a raise looks too much like a draw and we do not want to put ourselves to a decision for our tournament life. I think being able to get to the river with a hand that has so much equity we are maximizing our EV. Being the short stacker makes calling the best, because if we miss the river completely we can get away from the hand and stay in the tournament and possibly gain some EV. Hey samo would you change anything if lets say this were a cash game? lets say 1KNL and we are 150BBs deep and everyone is 50-80BB? and vice versa?

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I have this feeling that we are up against a bigger flush, with the way the action happened on the flop. I think we really have only 6 clean outs here, so I might call if i am feeling like im going to hit the straight. I think if we hit the flush, we will get stacked by a bigger flush. I’d give about a 45 percent calling ,35 percent folding and 10 percent shoving here.

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I’ll go against the general consensus here and say raise. If you hit a hand on the river just how much will you make? Plus you have to consider the possibility of V having a higher flush draw.

I want to find out where I am standing here. A raise will only be called by a few hands like Ax (of hearts), a set and an OESD (like 79). Two pair, any pair, gutshots and any flush draw without the ace will probably fold. If I had KQs here and I was facing a re-raise I’d be hesitating to call. I’d rule out any set, given the preflop play so the only thing I fear here is the ace high flush. I think a re-raise from V is highly unlikely here.

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J9 sooted is the nuts. This is an easy all-in. I voted raise. It’s unlikely that the deuce helped him, and if he has A8, A5, you have 15 outs + the overs 6 = 21; roughly 42% equity. With this kind of board, if BB has AT or a premium hand, he had to be leading out on the flop.

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Its a limped pot and BB got a free look, you have no idea where you’re at and you dont want to get raised out of the pot. Calling is the smartest play here.

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I have to agree with Samo(are u niman?), I believe calling is the best play because it invites the button to come along to allow him to over-call or a chance to bluff raise. By calling and inviting him along we are giving ourselves a better price on our call. Also by the river our stack to pot ratio will give the appearance of fold equity by just calling, if any good river cards fall that don’t connect with our draw which we can check raise river bluff at. We can assume that the small turn bet hes not holding a two pair hand, because its a small bet which is giving the other players a good price to call. I know when I am river check raised, any one pair hand never feels good. Also If we call turn and get raised, our stack is sized up we can ship it with some fold equity. Along with having great showdown equity. Looking at the different hand combos that contain higher flushes that are in the buttons range, There aren’t alot that make sense, since the T of hearts is out and we hold the J of hearts, the slight chance someone has an Ax of hearts is the only hand that would make sense but it is in an un-raised pot, and you would think that they would build the pot with a nut drawing hand on the flop. If it gets called around on the turn and we see the river for cheap and we brick completely and we have no cards we can bluff raise at we can dump our hand depending on the action. I definitely believe calling turn and evaluating the river is the OPTIMAL play.

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